Week 5 - TPC Style

The Cubs have killed any chance of a legitimate column this week. Did I mention that I hate being a Cubs’ fan? Attention gamblers: Feel free to use my picks as an example of how NOT to bet...enjoy.


New Orleans -3 vs Carolina
The loss of McAllister is bigger than people think because I’m not convinced Reggie Bush is an every-down back. We’ll definitely see what he’s made of from here on out. The Saints have to turn this thing around some time, and this is the perfect week to do it. The Superdome will be rocking (David Carr will be shaky) and the Saints will still have plenty of firepower left to dismantle the streaky Panthers. Saints win big.

Kansas City +1 vs Jacksonville
I still can’t believe KC put a whoop knot on the Chargers last week. They definitely starting to turn things around, but do they have another big week in them? I say yes. WR Dwayne Bowe looks like the real deal, TE Tony Gonzalez hit paydirt for the first time, LJ finally cracked 100 yards, and Damon Huard is settling into the starting QB role. Did I mention Huard is 7-0 at home? The Chiefs won’t need much from Huard this week, just manage the game and no stupid mistakes. LJ will do the rest - the Jags have the 26th ranked run. My gut tells me to take Jacksonville but the stats say KC. Chiefs in a tough, low-scoring game.

Washington -3.5 vs Detroit
I’m sticking with my sleeper team. Washington has had 2 weeks to shake off blowing that Giants game. The Lions are overachieving right now and will lose a close game because Mike Martz will refuse to run the ball…again. Washington in a close one – that damn half a point scares the shit out of me!

Tennessee -9 vs Atlanta
This is a big number but, with VY involved, I feel pretty good about this one. Since taking the starting QB spot, Vince is 13-3 against the spread (ATS) and 9-1 ATS in his last 10 games. VY doesn’t deserve all the praise. The Tennessee defense has been stout, giving up only 15 points/game. The Falcons and QB Joey “Big Bust” Harrington won’t crack that number. Titans win big at The Coliseum.

Houston -5 vs Miami
Who knows what to make of these two teams? I was prepared to lay the points in this game but then I realized I was taking the Miami Dolphins. This team is bad, really bad. RB Ronnie Brown has finally put together consecutive outstanding efforts. He would be able to run against this Texans team but he won’t have a chance. Miami will fall behind early and will be forced to air it out more than they like. Could this be the game we finally see rookie QB John Beck? If not this week then some time soon. Nick Saban sure left a mess in Miami. Houston by a td.

Pittsburgh -6 vs Seattle
Seattle has had trouble putting points on the board – the complete opposite of what Pittsburgh has been able to do. Seattle is one of the better teams in the NFC but this game will show, once again, the complete stranglehold the AFC has on the league. This game should be close until the Steelers pull away late. Pittsburgh covers in a garbage time TD.

New England -16.5 vs Cleveland
Could this Pats team be one of the most dominate teams of our generation? Are we witnessing history? I think we could be. I’m not saying they’ll go 16-0 but, barring injury and another scandal, New England is going to come close. The only thing that worries me about this game is if the Pats are looking ahead to next week’s game at Dallas. If the Pats can stay focused, they’ll crush the Browns. New England puts up 40 points and covers easily.

Arizona -3.5 @ St. Louis
Here’s a list of NFL coaches that didn’t make it to their third season: Hugh Campbell – Hou, Bud Carson – Cle, Pete Carroll – NYJ, Bud Carson – Cle, Marty Feldman – Oak, Clem Crowe – Bal, Hugh Devore – Phi, Eddie Erdelatz – Oak, Rod Dowhower – Ind, Gunther Cunningham – KC, Dennis Erickson – SF, Chan Gailey – Dal, Kevin Gilbride – SD, Al Groh – NYJ, Wade Phillips – Den, Mike Mularkey – Buf, Ray Rhodes – GB, Buddy Ryan – Ari, Hank Stram – NO, Dick MacPherson – NE, (the list goes on and on). This year we can add Scott Linehan – Stl to the list. This was obviously a terrible hire and he is wasting the considerable talent on this team…he needs to be fired asap. Think about it like this….what happens if the Rams go 3-13 this year and Rams brass decide to give Linehan one more year? What happens if they start the 2008 season 0-6? He would undoubtedly get fired then. Why wait? This was a bad hire – cut the cord and move on. Arizona in a laugher.

NY Giants -3.5 vs NY Jets
This game sucks. I’ll take the home team and move right along.

Tampa Bay +10 @ Indianapolis
This line is way too high. TB has been rejuvenated by Jeff Garsssia and I think the loss of RB Carnell Williams to a blown knee could actually help this team. The 1-2 punch of RBs Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham will prove to be better than the brittle back know as the Cadillac. Indy wins a close game ( The Bucs could actually pull off an upset if RB Joseph Addai misses the game.)

Denver -1 vs San Diego
San Diego is crumbling from the inside out. Maybe it’s karma for firing a coach that went 14-2…who knows why this team has fallen so hard?! I’m not totally sold on the progress of QB Jay Cutler and RB Travis Henry went all Ricky Williams on us and failed another drug test. Henry might still be able to start as he is suing the league to block an imminent suspension. If Henry does miss the game, look for undrafted rookie RB Selvin Young to step up (fantasy alert – grab this guy immediately!). These two teams are evenly match so I’ll take the home team and coach Mike Shanahan over Norv “In over his head” Turner. Denver in a tight one.

San Francisco +3.5 vs Baltimore
Two teams that came into this season with a lot of hype and what do they have to show for it? A combined 4-4 record…ah the sweet smell of mediocrity. This is a tough game to pick. I’ve gone back and forth several times so I’m just going to flip a coin. Heads = SF and Tails = Baltimore. Heads it is.

Green Bay -3 vs Chicago
Oh how the might have fallen. The only thing more sure than the Madden Curse is the Superbowl loser hangover. I have no clue how or why this happens but it seems to rear it’s ugly head every year. Chicago is too banged up and their offense is totally inept at this point. Packers improve to 5-0 and Bears’ QBs Brian Griese, Rex Grossman, and Kyle Orton alternate possessions and combine for 4 picks and 25 sacks. Is Jim McMahon still alive? What about Kordell Stewart or Jim Miller?

Dallas -10 @ Buffalo
The Cowboys are the cream of the crop in the NFC. The only way they don’t blow out Buffalo is if they get caught looking ahead to next week (see: NE vs Cle). Man I can’t wait for that game! Can we just skip this game? If this were Tecmo Superbowl, I’d auto pilot skip this game and go straight to Week 6.

My picks can’t get any worse than last week…can they? The Cubs can come back from an 0-2 deficit…can’t they? I need to start drinking again.

TPC