- I just spent the last 2 weeks in southern California. Perfect weather, gorgeous women, relaxing beaches. Maybe most people in the US can't afford to live specifically there, but in a very mobile country, is there any reason why so many people still live in cold, snowy, land-locked weather environments? I'm not beating up on my hometown (the Lou)....I'm talking about Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Michigan, BUFFALO??! I really don't get it. I've visited all of the above (except Buffalo) and have no real explanation for this. What do these places have to offer? Maybe I'm spoiled, but I just can't imagine living the rest of my life like that.
- The Colorado Rockies. If you saw their miraculous run in a movie, you'd never believe it. Facing unbelievable pressure and even a 5 day "break", they've managed against all odds to keep rolling. No team in history in any sport has ever made a run like this. In baseball especially, a run like this just doesn't happen. This is like playing roulette and needing to win 22 straight times to break even. Betting on red 22 straight times, it comes through every time (except once). At what point, if ever, do you bet on black? The AL winner will be favored probably at -150/-160 or so. Even though on paper the Indians or Red Sox are clearly better, how can you possibly bet against the Rockies at this point?
- Gambling tip that may or may not make sense: All 3 expansion teams won the World Series as considerable underdogs in their only appearances. Florida (twice) and Arizona.
- What kind of shape is baseball in when a somewhat awful Monday Night Football game draws a 3 times larger audience than an NLCS playoff game on the same night at the same time?
- "I can't fathom taking the Giants in this game." Yes, I said that about the Giants-Falcons game. I elected to put my money on John Joseph Harrington instead. No alcohol or drugs were involved.
- There are a few "sneaky" not awful NFL teams. Washington (this one is out of the bag), Minnesota (Peterson), Oakland (I never thought I'd say this in 2007), and Cleveland (surprisingly good offense). I'm not ready to throw Kansas City, Houston, or Detroit into this category. Tennessee and Tampa Bay are no longer sneaky.
- On the flip side, the over-rated teams appear to be: Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, NY Jets, Denver, and Baltimore. A huge difference in these teams from last year! The reason I mention this is ATS wagering. The general public maybe hasn't caught up to some of this yet.
ENOUGH.....time to make my picks for another victorious week over TPC.
- Arizona +9 Washington: The Cardinals were overdue for the disappointing game against Carolina. Now that people have abandoned the bandwagon, it's time for it to start rolling again (only leading to another fiery crash). Regardless of the QB situation, the Cards are not 9 points worse than the Skins. If Warner plays, maybe an upset special? Stay tuned.
- Atlanta +9 New Orleans: This spread is way too high. The Falcons are not as awful as they looked last week; the Saints aren't as good as they looked. The 9 point spread is a knee jerk reaction and is not reasonable. Crap....I just took John Joseph Harrington AGAIN.
- Baltimore -3 Buffalo: I don't care who plays QB for Baltimore, the Bills are not going to be able to score on Baltimore's D if they can't score on the friggin' Cowboys D on a Monday Night. Ravens (who I consider to be fairly over-rated) roll.
- Minnesota +9.5 Dallas: I'm 100% convinced of Peterson. He is the best RB to come out of a draft since LDT. There, I said it. The Boys will be looking to get their confidence back...and it could happen...but I'm betting Peterson opens up the Dallas D so that even Tarvaris Jackson can hit receivers. What a sight that will be!
- New England -16.5 Miami: Why on earth would you not take New England here? 6-0 ATS.
- NY Giants -9.5 San Fran: I'm not on the Giants bandwagon just yet. They still have serious defensive issues and a lousy head coach. However, the 49ers are banged up and the G-Men certainly do know how to score. Giants stomp the Niners.
- Tampa Bay +1 Detroit: I'm genuinely impressed by the work of Jon Gruden. This Bucs team looked awful last year and made very few improvements since then. Although unproven on the road, I feel this Bucs team is the dark horse in the NFC. In a wide open division, I'm taking them as division champs.
- Tennessee -1 Houston: I was having a tough time finding a game to bet on...until I came across this one. Look for VY to get back in the saddle and under 38.5 points. Do I smell a parlay?
- Oakland -1 Kansas City: Big rivalry game that the Chiefs have dominated for the last few years. Finally, the Raiders have a team to exact revenge on them. Look for LJ to struggle big time against the Raiders D. I'm pricing a 90% chance that this game (although competitive) will be very ugly. Raiders win in a crapfest.
- Cincinnati -6 NY Jets: I'm not sure I've ever been more excited to give 6 points with a 1-4 team. With a Jets team that can't even stop Philly's offense, this game should be over by halftime. Cincy wins 38-17.
- Chicago +5 Philly: I can't figure Philly out enough to give 5 points with them. The Bears were stunned last week and are nearly in "must win" mode. Maybe an upset brewing?
- Seattle -9 St. Louis: Maybe the Lambs could sign an arena football team to play offense for them? Seriously, I can't remember a more injured NFL team. I'm not betting on Seattle, merely betting against the 0-6, 1-5 ATS Lambs.
- Pittsburgh -3.5 Denver: Tricky game...it could end up being close. I would feel infinitely better about this if the spread was -3. The Steelers are clearly the better team, but playing on a cold Sunday Night in Denver is never easy. But then again, Denver is consumed by Rocky Mountain Fever....GO ROCKIES!
- Jacksonville +3 Indy: Monday Night Home Dog (AGAIN). Actually, that's not why I'm taking the Jags. Jacksonville tends to play the Colts very tough (especially at home). Both teams are playing very good football and this is a huge game in the division. This may be the only game next week I'm very excited for. Jags in an upset 23-20. Gambling note: The spread looks like it is heading for 3.5 or higher. If you want the Colts, get in now....if you want the Jags, wait until Monday.
There may not be many close games in Week 7, but who knows...it's the NFL!
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