After looking at the most recent college polls, I couldn't help but notice how ridiculous some of the choices are. My thinking started by looking at #1 Memphis. Are they talented? Sure. Will they be a #1 seed? Sure. Will they go undefeated in the regular season? Probably. Do they have enough good wins to be considered #1? Absolutely. With all of those questions answered, there is a 0% chance that they would be favored over 20-0 Kansas on a neutral floor. According to the Las Vegas Sports Consultants, KU would be favored by 3 on a neutral floor. I'm not dissing Memphis, but you can't be the #1 team in the land and be considered an underdog on a neutral floor to anybody. It just can't happen. With that thought, I began to break down the rest of the AP and Coaches Poll Top 25. With the NFL nearly at a close, I present the first ever Bullpen Catcher Top 25.
1. Kansas 20-0
2. Memphis 19-0
3. North Carolina 19-1
4. Duke 17-1
5. UCLA 17-2
6. Georgetown 16-2
7. Tennessee 16-2
8. Michigan St 18-2
9. Indiana 17-2
10. Xavier 17-4
11. Washington St. 17-2
12. Drake 16-1
13. Wisconsin 16-3
14. Texas 15-3
15. St. Mary's 16-2
16. Marquette 13-4
17. Pittsburgh 15-4
18. Arizona 13-6
19. W. Virginia 14-5
20. Stanford 16-3
21. UConn 14-5
22. Notre Dame 14-4
23. Butler 19-2
24. Florida 18-3
25. Gonzaga 15-5
Biggest differences between the Bullpen Catcher and AP/Coach's Poll
#10 Xavier---#15 in AP/Coach's Poll
#23 Butler---#12 in AP/Coach's Poll
#12 Drake---#16/#17 in AP/Coach's Poll
NR Vanderbilt---#19/#18 in AP/Coach's Poll
#20 Stanford---#14 in AP/Coach's Poll
NR Ole Miss---#22/#24 in AP/Coach's Poll
As I said, what we need to keep in mind is who would be favored on a neutral court. Butler is simply not near as good as they are ranked. On the other hand, St. Mary's is even better than what they are getting credit for in the polls. As we wrap up the college hoops season, we'll do weekly polls and even our own bracketology. Stay tuned!
Monday, January 28, 2008
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Super Bowl Preview
Championship Sunday started a little slow but ended with a bang. Maybe it had something to do with the 2 bottles of wine consumed?
The Chargers were good enough to beat the spread, but were really no threat to beat the Pats. Rivers played well, but when healthy I still think the Chargers could have given the Pats a serious run for their money. The fact that they hung around as well as they did is a testament to the depth and talent of the Chargers. Like a true Cubs fan, I must say wait until next year for them. I'm not going to lie, I jumped on their bandwagon the last 2 years. It was a fun ride.
Even with Brady having an average at best game, the Pats are simply too good for their competition. Look back at this season. They played every tough team in the NFL with the exception of the Packers. What they've done is remarkable and they will likely go down as the best team in NFL history. It's really been a blast watching them dominate the league the way they have this year.
Eli Manning has by far been the best QB of this postseason. What are the odds I would say this? 30-1? Somehow, he has managed to not turn the ball over this postseason. He's never been terrible, just inconsistent. Because of his inconsistency, we've all been waiting for the other shoe to drop. This year, I'm not sure it will. He may throw a pick or two against the Pats, but it's hard to imagine he'll stink up the joint like Grossman did last year.
This Giants dominated the Packers, but needed OT to beat them. At 10-1, they have proven to be road warriors. I'm not sure I've ever seen a team disproportionally play this much better on the road as opposed to at home. Although they have surprised Vegas for about 5 games straight, the Giants still opened as 13 point underdogs against the high flying New England Patriots. At first this number seemed high, but when you break it down, I believe the spread fits the matchup.
In Week 17, the Giants lost to the Pats by 3 points. It was an outstanding game that the Pats had to make a 4th quarter rally to win. For a minute, let's look back at that game and examine a couple of things that happened which will likely not be repeated.
1. The Pats started off slow with the thought that the Giants would probably not play their starters in the 2nd half. Obviously, this will not be the case in the Super Bowl.
2. The Giants returned a punt for a TD. It could happen again, but odds?
3. The Giants scored a late meaningless TD to cut the lead to 3. Although it very well could happen again, just remember that even with everything else that happened, the Pats were a solid 10 points better on the road than the Giants.
4. The Pats figured out how to beat Eli in the 2nd half of that game: blitz the hell out of him. When they started doing that in the 2nd half, they forced several bad throws and an interception. You can bet your last dollar Beliceck will take full advantage of this knowledge in the Super Bowl.
Those are the bigger thoughts that come to my mind that will likely be different in the Super Bowl. I'm going to sit on my official prediction for a good week and a half or so but I'm leaning towards the Pats right now.
Argument for Pats -13 NY Giants: The U. of Phoenix stadium in Glendale has one of the fastest surfaces known to man. Remember Florida beating Ohio St there? Yeah, same principal applies. With the Pats outstanding offense, they will be impossible to consistently stop during this game. It's definitely not out of the question for them to score 50 points against the Giants. As we saw in Weeks 1-10, when the conditions are perfect, the Pats game goes more vertical than horizontal. With this in mind, how can you possibly bet against at minimum the best offense of all time in perfect conditions?
Argument for NY Giants +13 Pats: As we've seen during the last month or so, Eli Manning and company have consistently exceeded expectations. I, myself, have recognized that I was completely wrong about this football team. They have pulled off an improbable run by not turning the ball over and doing just enough on defense to keep the other team out of the end zone. They didn't just play the Pats tough in Week 17, they had them on the ropes. Is it possible that they are now playing even better than their 3 point loss at home in Week 17? It certainly appears that way.
Personal recap: Once in a while you get to brag for being a gambling genius. I won both games last week by completing a last minute switch from the Pack to the Giants as the spread had went up to 8. In my mind, I didn't think the Giants would win, but I thought that the game could be close. In real money wagers, I'm 8-2 on the playoffs. On the official blog picks, I'm 6-3-1. By far, this is the best I've done on the NFL playoffs. To further brag, I've picked every Super Bowl right in the last 10-12 years with the exception of the Rams and Pats. Funny thing about that game, I see some similarities between that game and this Super Bowl.
1. The Rams went to New England and won by 7 late that year. My thinking by taking the Rams was that in perfect dome conditions, their powerful offense would kill the Pats.
2. Both teams heavily rely/relied on a strong offense.
3. The Pats, like the Rams, are approx. 13-14 point favorites.
4. The Giants, like the Pats that year, have absolutely nothing to lose.
Will I learn from my lesson of taking the Rams that year? Probably not, but stay tuned.
The Chargers were good enough to beat the spread, but were really no threat to beat the Pats. Rivers played well, but when healthy I still think the Chargers could have given the Pats a serious run for their money. The fact that they hung around as well as they did is a testament to the depth and talent of the Chargers. Like a true Cubs fan, I must say wait until next year for them. I'm not going to lie, I jumped on their bandwagon the last 2 years. It was a fun ride.
Even with Brady having an average at best game, the Pats are simply too good for their competition. Look back at this season. They played every tough team in the NFL with the exception of the Packers. What they've done is remarkable and they will likely go down as the best team in NFL history. It's really been a blast watching them dominate the league the way they have this year.
Eli Manning has by far been the best QB of this postseason. What are the odds I would say this? 30-1? Somehow, he has managed to not turn the ball over this postseason. He's never been terrible, just inconsistent. Because of his inconsistency, we've all been waiting for the other shoe to drop. This year, I'm not sure it will. He may throw a pick or two against the Pats, but it's hard to imagine he'll stink up the joint like Grossman did last year.
This Giants dominated the Packers, but needed OT to beat them. At 10-1, they have proven to be road warriors. I'm not sure I've ever seen a team disproportionally play this much better on the road as opposed to at home. Although they have surprised Vegas for about 5 games straight, the Giants still opened as 13 point underdogs against the high flying New England Patriots. At first this number seemed high, but when you break it down, I believe the spread fits the matchup.
In Week 17, the Giants lost to the Pats by 3 points. It was an outstanding game that the Pats had to make a 4th quarter rally to win. For a minute, let's look back at that game and examine a couple of things that happened which will likely not be repeated.
1. The Pats started off slow with the thought that the Giants would probably not play their starters in the 2nd half. Obviously, this will not be the case in the Super Bowl.
2. The Giants returned a punt for a TD. It could happen again, but odds?
3. The Giants scored a late meaningless TD to cut the lead to 3. Although it very well could happen again, just remember that even with everything else that happened, the Pats were a solid 10 points better on the road than the Giants.
4. The Pats figured out how to beat Eli in the 2nd half of that game: blitz the hell out of him. When they started doing that in the 2nd half, they forced several bad throws and an interception. You can bet your last dollar Beliceck will take full advantage of this knowledge in the Super Bowl.
Those are the bigger thoughts that come to my mind that will likely be different in the Super Bowl. I'm going to sit on my official prediction for a good week and a half or so but I'm leaning towards the Pats right now.
Argument for Pats -13 NY Giants: The U. of Phoenix stadium in Glendale has one of the fastest surfaces known to man. Remember Florida beating Ohio St there? Yeah, same principal applies. With the Pats outstanding offense, they will be impossible to consistently stop during this game. It's definitely not out of the question for them to score 50 points against the Giants. As we saw in Weeks 1-10, when the conditions are perfect, the Pats game goes more vertical than horizontal. With this in mind, how can you possibly bet against at minimum the best offense of all time in perfect conditions?
Argument for NY Giants +13 Pats: As we've seen during the last month or so, Eli Manning and company have consistently exceeded expectations. I, myself, have recognized that I was completely wrong about this football team. They have pulled off an improbable run by not turning the ball over and doing just enough on defense to keep the other team out of the end zone. They didn't just play the Pats tough in Week 17, they had them on the ropes. Is it possible that they are now playing even better than their 3 point loss at home in Week 17? It certainly appears that way.
Personal recap: Once in a while you get to brag for being a gambling genius. I won both games last week by completing a last minute switch from the Pack to the Giants as the spread had went up to 8. In my mind, I didn't think the Giants would win, but I thought that the game could be close. In real money wagers, I'm 8-2 on the playoffs. On the official blog picks, I'm 6-3-1. By far, this is the best I've done on the NFL playoffs. To further brag, I've picked every Super Bowl right in the last 10-12 years with the exception of the Rams and Pats. Funny thing about that game, I see some similarities between that game and this Super Bowl.
1. The Rams went to New England and won by 7 late that year. My thinking by taking the Rams was that in perfect dome conditions, their powerful offense would kill the Pats.
2. Both teams heavily rely/relied on a strong offense.
3. The Pats, like the Rams, are approx. 13-14 point favorites.
4. The Giants, like the Pats that year, have absolutely nothing to lose.
Will I learn from my lesson of taking the Rams that year? Probably not, but stay tuned.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Flip-Flop
Quick post for the big Championship Day....I've taken the Giants +8, San Diego +14.5 on real money action. Go underdogs!!!
And go Mizzou +7 Kansas tonight!
Rico
And go Mizzou +7 Kansas tonight!
Rico
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Championship Weekend
At long last NFL Championship Weekend is finally almost here. If you haven't checked the weather forecast yet, we're in for one of the most memorable days in recent history. When talking casually among co-workers and friends, everybody thinks it's definitely Green Bay and New England in the Super Bowl. One problem, both teams face red hot visiting teams.
The Giants are now 9-1 on the road and playing their best football of the season. The Giants defense has bent, but not broken to perfection and Eli Manning has stepped up on the road each game more than the next. I'll be the first to admit, I was completely wrong about this Giants team. With momentum on their side, they face a young Packers team with a grizzled veteran at QB. Nearly everyone has already punched the Packers ticket to the Super Bowl...but isn't this a little premature?
The Chargers are the hottest team in the league right now and fresh off easily their biggest win of the year. Not only has this Chargers team won 9 straight games, they covered all 9 of them. The huge questions marks for them are the health of Rivers, Tomlinson, and Turner. If Rivers gets hit in the 1st quarter and the Chargers Super Bowl hopes rest on the shoulders of Billy Volek, the Pats will win this game by 20+ points easy. To me, the X-Factor in this game is the health of the previous 3 mentioned. If they play, this game will be close. If they don't, or aren't affective due to injury, the Pats will run away with this one.
CONCLUSION
Green Bay -7 NY Giants-As much as I hate not taking the points with a 9-1 road team, the forecast at Lambeau is a high of 6 degrees and windy. Eli Manning has a QB rating under 60 in cold weather games. The real key to this game: The Packers must blitz the absolute hell out of Manning. With a solid D, they should stop the run very well. Eli, in the cold, will not be able to rally the troops like in weeks past. Defensively, the Giants give up all kinds of "short" yardage that will add up fast for Favre and the Pack.
Green Bay 38 NY Giants 17
San Diego +14 New England-I'm not going to write a long explanation here. As talked about before, if Rivers/Tomlinson/Turner are healthy, the Chargers should be able to keep pace fairly well with a Pats team that will not succeed in 15 degree/20 MPH wind conditions. This game should be lower scoring than expected.
New England 24 San Diego 17
OK, I have NE-GB too....but I'm not going to be 100% shocked if one of these teams is upset this weekend. As always, good luck this weekend!
The Giants are now 9-1 on the road and playing their best football of the season. The Giants defense has bent, but not broken to perfection and Eli Manning has stepped up on the road each game more than the next. I'll be the first to admit, I was completely wrong about this Giants team. With momentum on their side, they face a young Packers team with a grizzled veteran at QB. Nearly everyone has already punched the Packers ticket to the Super Bowl...but isn't this a little premature?
The Chargers are the hottest team in the league right now and fresh off easily their biggest win of the year. Not only has this Chargers team won 9 straight games, they covered all 9 of them. The huge questions marks for them are the health of Rivers, Tomlinson, and Turner. If Rivers gets hit in the 1st quarter and the Chargers Super Bowl hopes rest on the shoulders of Billy Volek, the Pats will win this game by 20+ points easy. To me, the X-Factor in this game is the health of the previous 3 mentioned. If they play, this game will be close. If they don't, or aren't affective due to injury, the Pats will run away with this one.
CONCLUSION
Green Bay -7 NY Giants-As much as I hate not taking the points with a 9-1 road team, the forecast at Lambeau is a high of 6 degrees and windy. Eli Manning has a QB rating under 60 in cold weather games. The real key to this game: The Packers must blitz the absolute hell out of Manning. With a solid D, they should stop the run very well. Eli, in the cold, will not be able to rally the troops like in weeks past. Defensively, the Giants give up all kinds of "short" yardage that will add up fast for Favre and the Pack.
Green Bay 38 NY Giants 17
San Diego +14 New England-I'm not going to write a long explanation here. As talked about before, if Rivers/Tomlinson/Turner are healthy, the Chargers should be able to keep pace fairly well with a Pats team that will not succeed in 15 degree/20 MPH wind conditions. This game should be lower scoring than expected.
New England 24 San Diego 17
OK, I have NE-GB too....but I'm not going to be 100% shocked if one of these teams is upset this weekend. As always, good luck this weekend!
Monday, January 14, 2008
Round 2 Recap
Saturday seemed like a normal day of Round 2 NFL playoff football. 1 blowout and another game that really wasn't that close. Although it wasn't a complete waste of time and energy, it lacked the competitiveness that most of us NFL junkies thrive on. And then came Sunday. Maybe it was just a tad bit more exciting as I had action on both underdogs, but both of Sunday's games will probably be remembered as the best of the 2008 NFL playoffs. Let's do a quick recap of this week's action West Coast Style.
- Green Bay 42 Seattle 20-I bet Seattle +9 and was ecstatic when I was up 23 points to the spread about 5 minutes into the game. Seattle jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead and it seemed my prediction of Seattle having too much experience for Green Bay to be true. What transpired over the next 55 minutes of game time was embarrassing to any Seahawks fan. The Packers absolutely destroyed the Seahawks in all facets of the game. The Pack outscored Seattle 42-6 after a bad start. Although I missed most of the game, there really wasn't much to see (aside from a snow game at Lambeau...which is always nice.)
- New England 31 Jacksonville 20-The Pats, once again, did just enough to win. Their offense is still unstoppable and on defense they were just good enough. Because they rarely turn the ball over, this team is still going to be extremely tough to beat even with a mediocre defense. Somehow, I managed to win my Jags +13.5 wager.
- San Diego 28 Indy 24-Maybe because I'm a bandwagon Charger fan, but this seemed like the best playoff game in a long time. The Chargers proved that depth is a HUGE asset in a long NFL season. OK, so maybe Billy Volek isn't that great, but look at the RB situation. Has there ever been as good of a 2 headed monster as Turner and Tomlinson? And when both get banged up, Sproles comes up with a huge TD play. Already having action at 8.5, I was giddy when I noticed the spread up to 10 on Saturday when I made my other wagers. Because of this, the SD-Indy game became only the 2nd game all season that I doubled down on (the other Dallas -14 St. Louis). Looking back, how could you possibly take Indy by double digits? They've NEVER blown out this Charger team. It's a good thing the Colts won it all last year, or else Peyton Manning would have a ton more baggage for "not winning the big game." Looking back, isn't it even more obvious Brady is a better choice at QB if you were to start a franchise? Regardless, it's obvious the Pats were ecstatic to see these teams beat up on each other the way they did.
- NY Giants 21 Dallas 17-OK, I admit it. I was completely wrong about the way the Giants have come on lately. Maybe I had action on them getting 7.5, but I wasn't that confident they wouldn't get blown out. I really thought the Cowboys would take care of business at home. What happened? The answer has nothing to do with Tony Romo or Jessica Simpson. TO was banged up, Crayton choked on more than one big play, and Terry Glenn was too rusty. The Giants D shut down the run fairly well and made just enough big plays to keep them in the game. Simply put, this was a very impressive performance by the Giants and I did not think that they had it in them. At 9-1, the road warrior Giants will have their toughest test at Lambeau next week.
West Coast Style NFL playoff ATS: 5-2-1 (6-2 actual money)
Simple formula this year so far: home teams in Week 1, road teams in Week 2.
CHAMPIONSHIP OUTLOOK
New England -14.5 San Diego-Forecast: Partly cloudy and cold. High of 15.
Green Bay -7 NY Giants-Forecast: Partly cloudy and cold. High of 12.
Las Vegas, NV: Sunny. High of 61. 100% chance of alcoholic intoxication.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
NFL Playoffs, Round 2 (West Coast)
Round 2 of the playoffs is normally the least anticipated round. It's a virtual lock that at least 2 of the 4 games will be blowouts. With a week of rest and the chance to regroup, the Patriots, Cowboys, Packers, and Colts have a huge advantage. As a result, the spreads for these games are high. History has proven that the home teams in Round 2 fare very well. The common theory in Vegas is to lay the points, regardless of how high the number. I can't quite put my finger on it, but this year feels a little different. With reckless abandon, here are my Round 2 picks.
- Seattle +7.5 Green Bay-(Thankfully I have action on this at 9) All year I've harped on how bad the Seahawks are on the road. Not only are the horrible on the road, they are playing at Lambeau in January. Understandably, the spread is high. With those factors in mind, I believe the quick Seahawks defense could create havoc for Favre. As under-rated as the Seahawks defense is, the reason I'm taking Seattle is because of their experience. I'm taking the much more playoff experienced Seahawks to keep this game close against a young Packers team that will struggle to win this one. Of all the games in round 2, this game to me smells the most like a potential upset. Seattle 23 Green Bay 20.
- NY Giants +7.5 Dallas-(No action yet) The Cowboys will win this game. Simply put, they are clearly a better team than the Giants. Romo will have a huge game, but so will Manning. TO is banged up and the Cowboys will take at least a half to knock the rust off. Scary fact for Dallas: NY is 8-1 on the road this year. The only loss: a Week 1 shootout at Dallas. The Giants lost that game by 10 but only lost ATS due to a long TO TD late in the game. Dallas 34 NY Giants 27.
- San Diego +8 Indy-(Action at 8.5) The Colts had a week to rest and get healthy and should come out of the gate firing. This team will be extremely tough to knock off at home. The Chargers are the hottest team in the NFL and always play the Colts tough. Their win against the Colts earlier this year may have been a fluke, but this team is playing a lot better than they were at the time. Rivers doesn't play well in the cold, which is good, considering Indy plays in a dome. I see the Colts leading much of the game by 10-14 and the Chargers scoring a back-door TD to cover. Indy 31 San Diego 26.
- Jacksonville +13 New England (no action yet) -This bet just "feels" wrong. Garrard (the QB of a city with warm weather) on the road against arguably the best team in history on a week's rest in January. If the Pats didn't do just enough to win so many games at the end of the year I'd be going the other way on this. The Pats will score plenty, but the Jags are exactly the kind of team that could surprise them. If the Jags establish a running game and control the ball, this game will be close. In the last 6 games of the season, the Pats gave up 35 to the Giants, 28 to Philly, and 24 to Baltimore. The Jags offense, as unimpressive at it appears on paper, is working considerably well lately. Since getting embarrassed on Monday Night Football against the Colts in Week 7, the LOWEST the Jags have scored is 24 points. I'd give the Jags about a 20% chance to pull the outright upset here as they have nothing to lose and ALL the pressure is on the Pats. Patriots 34 Jags 30.
Like I said before, picking against the home teams in Week 2 goes against conventional wisdom. Not only did I do that, I did it on all 4 games. When I go 0-4 this week and look like a complete buffoon, remember at least I had the guts to be this ridiculous.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Wild Card Recap (West Coast)
3 out of the 4 Wild Card weekend games turned out to be pretty good. My strategy of picking all home teams proved to be pretty good. Since I waited until the last minute to put my bets in, I got the Steelers +3. There was a serious chain of events that occurred for me to somehow win that bet. Just for fun, let's recap:
1. The Steelers rallied from 18 points down (14 at the half).
2. The Steelers went for a 12 yard 2 point conversion...and of course failed.
3. The Steelers failed on another 2 point conversion to put them up by 3.
Why is it important they failed on these? B/c if this game goes to OT, I have a good chance of a push.
4. Garrard threw 2 interceptions after only 3 ALL year.
5. Several HUGE 4th down conversions (by both teams).
6. Maurice Jones-Drew was one tackle and two yards away from scoring a TD with seconds remaining.
7. Big Ben turns the ball over at his own 20 at the end of the game....thankfully the Jags fell on it instead of running it back.
Every now and then it's good to win one of these bets as they always seem to go against you. Looking back, I was a little pissed at myself for taking the Bucs. This was the only bet of the weekend where I didn't have a good feeling before the game. 3-1 start to the NFL playoffs, 2-1-1 on the blog. I'll take it.
OPENING LINES ROUND 2
Green Bay -9 Seattle....Damn that's a lot of points. Action pouring in on Seattle.
New England -11.5 Jacksonville....seems about right. Action slightly in favor of New England.
Indy -9 San Diego....again a ton of points. Action slightly in favor of San Diego.
Dallas 7.5 NY Giants....That 1/2 point could be huge. Action in favor of NY Giants.
The normal wiseguy logic is to take the home teams in round 2 as they are better rested and normally far more talented. This year....I dunno? These spreads seem awfully high.
One quick BCS paragraph. There is completely no reason to spend a lot of time ranting about the BCS in the Bullpen Catcher. Everybody knows it sucks and yet nothing will ever be done about it. A "plus one" system is not even the correct fix for it, but it might be better than now. Ohio St. and LSU play tomorrow night for the BCS title. In my book, neither team would win it all in a playoff format. I'd take a healthy USC or Georgia team over either one. For this reason, there isn't a chance in hell I'm turning this game on tomorrow night. As a die hard sports nut, I'm held back from paying much attention or time to college football simply because there's a pretty good chance there is no real champion at the end. It's amazing to think how big of a mistake this is by college football. Could you imagine the first round of games and the excitement it would bring? Imagine March Madness and multiply it by 2 or 3. By far, not having a playoff format is the most ridiculous item in sports. That's all I have to say about that.
1. The Steelers rallied from 18 points down (14 at the half).
2. The Steelers went for a 12 yard 2 point conversion...and of course failed.
3. The Steelers failed on another 2 point conversion to put them up by 3.
Why is it important they failed on these? B/c if this game goes to OT, I have a good chance of a push.
4. Garrard threw 2 interceptions after only 3 ALL year.
5. Several HUGE 4th down conversions (by both teams).
6. Maurice Jones-Drew was one tackle and two yards away from scoring a TD with seconds remaining.
7. Big Ben turns the ball over at his own 20 at the end of the game....thankfully the Jags fell on it instead of running it back.
Every now and then it's good to win one of these bets as they always seem to go against you. Looking back, I was a little pissed at myself for taking the Bucs. This was the only bet of the weekend where I didn't have a good feeling before the game. 3-1 start to the NFL playoffs, 2-1-1 on the blog. I'll take it.
OPENING LINES ROUND 2
Green Bay -9 Seattle....Damn that's a lot of points. Action pouring in on Seattle.
New England -11.5 Jacksonville....seems about right. Action slightly in favor of New England.
Indy -9 San Diego....again a ton of points. Action slightly in favor of San Diego.
Dallas 7.5 NY Giants....That 1/2 point could be huge. Action in favor of NY Giants.
The normal wiseguy logic is to take the home teams in round 2 as they are better rested and normally far more talented. This year....I dunno? These spreads seem awfully high.
One quick BCS paragraph. There is completely no reason to spend a lot of time ranting about the BCS in the Bullpen Catcher. Everybody knows it sucks and yet nothing will ever be done about it. A "plus one" system is not even the correct fix for it, but it might be better than now. Ohio St. and LSU play tomorrow night for the BCS title. In my book, neither team would win it all in a playoff format. I'd take a healthy USC or Georgia team over either one. For this reason, there isn't a chance in hell I'm turning this game on tomorrow night. As a die hard sports nut, I'm held back from paying much attention or time to college football simply because there's a pretty good chance there is no real champion at the end. It's amazing to think how big of a mistake this is by college football. Could you imagine the first round of games and the excitement it would bring? Imagine March Madness and multiply it by 2 or 3. By far, not having a playoff format is the most ridiculous item in sports. That's all I have to say about that.
Friday, January 4, 2008
PLAYOFF PREVIEW (West Coast)
We here at the Bullpen Catcher have had a week to think about the NFL playoffs and the Wild Card Weekend opening lines. Sometimes, it's good to have a couple more days to think. When the season ended, it's easy to imagine either Dallas or New England upended as neither team finished the season exceptionally strong. Maybe it still is...but the more you think about it, the less likely it is that either one is going to be beat at home.
The Cowboys offense has looked anemic for several weeks and their defense is clearly beatable. Tony Romo has not yet performed at a high level in a "big" game. Because of this, some people are talking about a stunning first round defeat of the Cowboys by the Skins, Bucs, or Giants. Of the previous 3, only Washington realistically has any chance of going to Dallas and winning. The Bucs simply aren't good enough and the Giants have already proven they aren't on the same level as the Cowboys. With this knowledge, it's hard to imagine them losing first round and very hard to imagine Favre (who has never won in Dallas) bringing the Packers to an upset of the Cowboys. Also, the NFC 1 seed has proven to be very hard to beat in recent years. Analysis: Take the Cowboys to the Super Bowl.
The Patriots offense is clearly exceptional, but their defense? Their D looks old and tired. Sure, they have a lot of big names, but looking back at the 2nd half of the season....they are beatable. If the weather sucks (as it probably will), their offense has been neutralized....so maybe they are beatable. My take on them is that it doesn't matter who comes to Foxboro, the Pats can only lose if they beat themselves. The Colts are the only team that can match New England in a shootout...and we know Manning doesn't play well in cold weather. Analysis: The Pats are no fluke, take them all the way.
1st round predictions:
Seattle -3.5 Washington: I'm completely impressed by the Skins late season run, but the Seahawks are just too good at home.
Pittsburgh +2 Jacksonville: All the square bettors have chosen Jacksonville. Tell you anything? Pittsburgh should be able to air it out enough against Jacksonville's secondary to win this one.
Tampa Bay -2.5 NY Giants: Again, the square bettors are lined up to take the Bucs. The Giants lost key players due to injury last week in a "meaningless" game and everybody has over-hyped Manning once again. When in doubt, take the home team in the playoffs.
San Diego -9 Tennessee: The Titans are too beat up and the Chargers play way too well at home.
Notice: I took all home teams completely on purpose...you can't under-estimate this in the playoffs.
AFC Championship:
New England over Indianapolis
NFC Championship:
Dallas over Seattle
Super Bowl:
New England over Dallas
Yes, those are not very exciting predictions....but I'd price a 70% chance that I'm right on this one.
The Cowboys offense has looked anemic for several weeks and their defense is clearly beatable. Tony Romo has not yet performed at a high level in a "big" game. Because of this, some people are talking about a stunning first round defeat of the Cowboys by the Skins, Bucs, or Giants. Of the previous 3, only Washington realistically has any chance of going to Dallas and winning. The Bucs simply aren't good enough and the Giants have already proven they aren't on the same level as the Cowboys. With this knowledge, it's hard to imagine them losing first round and very hard to imagine Favre (who has never won in Dallas) bringing the Packers to an upset of the Cowboys. Also, the NFC 1 seed has proven to be very hard to beat in recent years. Analysis: Take the Cowboys to the Super Bowl.
The Patriots offense is clearly exceptional, but their defense? Their D looks old and tired. Sure, they have a lot of big names, but looking back at the 2nd half of the season....they are beatable. If the weather sucks (as it probably will), their offense has been neutralized....so maybe they are beatable. My take on them is that it doesn't matter who comes to Foxboro, the Pats can only lose if they beat themselves. The Colts are the only team that can match New England in a shootout...and we know Manning doesn't play well in cold weather. Analysis: The Pats are no fluke, take them all the way.
1st round predictions:
Seattle -3.5 Washington: I'm completely impressed by the Skins late season run, but the Seahawks are just too good at home.
Pittsburgh +2 Jacksonville: All the square bettors have chosen Jacksonville. Tell you anything? Pittsburgh should be able to air it out enough against Jacksonville's secondary to win this one.
Tampa Bay -2.5 NY Giants: Again, the square bettors are lined up to take the Bucs. The Giants lost key players due to injury last week in a "meaningless" game and everybody has over-hyped Manning once again. When in doubt, take the home team in the playoffs.
San Diego -9 Tennessee: The Titans are too beat up and the Chargers play way too well at home.
Notice: I took all home teams completely on purpose...you can't under-estimate this in the playoffs.
AFC Championship:
New England over Indianapolis
NFC Championship:
Dallas over Seattle
Super Bowl:
New England over Dallas
Yes, those are not very exciting predictions....but I'd price a 70% chance that I'm right on this one.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
NFL Reg. Season Review (West Coast)
Now that the regular season is over, it's time to take a look back at how well we predicted (or didn't) each team's performance.
WIN-Indy (over 11 wins) Finish 13-3. "This perennial powerhouse will not have a Super Bowl letdown year." OK, I'm not that smart by saying it, but at the beginning of the season a lot of "experts" thought otherwise. For once, this team is now flying under the radar. The Colts will have a tough AFC semi-final matchup against San Diego. If they can get on a roll there, watch out Patriots!
WIN-Jacksonville (over 8 wins) Finish 11-5. Every year, the Jags quietly slip into the playoffs with double digit wins. This pick was not very difficult.
WIN-Tennessee (over 7 wins) Finish 10-6. The Titans started and finished the season strong. In the middle? Not so good. For this team to improve, VY must mature as a QB and learn to throw from the pocket.
AFC West
WIN-Denver (under 9.5 wins) Finish 7-9. With an inexperienced Cutler at QB, this one turned out to be an easy pick.
WIN-Kansas City (under 7.5 wins) Finish 4-12. There were way too many question marks entering the season....and after the Brody Croyle debacle, there may be even more after 07.
WIN-Oakland (under 5 wins) Finish 4-12. Seriously, would anybody bet the Raiders to win 6?
WIN-San Diego (over 10.5 wins) Finish 11-5. My pre-season pick to win it all, this team finished very strong. With all the pressure on the Pats, who knows? Maybe they return the favor this year?
NFC East
WIN-Dallas (over 9.5 wins) Finish 13-3. This team over-achieved a bit this year. Probably the best team in the NFC with home field advantage, they'll be pretty hard to knock off at home in the playoffs. Looking back at their schedule, they faced pretty weak competition. The Giants (twice) and Packers at home are their signature wins.
WIN-NY Giants (over 8 wins) Finish 10-6. The G-men had a completely soft schedule. It was easy to see before the season....I'm not sure why everybody was surprised when the Cowboys killed them in Week 10.
WIN-Philly (under 9 wins) Finish 8-8. With so many close losses, I may be a little lucky to win this one. With a healthy McNabb, this team will be back next year!
LOSS-Washington (under 7.5 wins ) Finish 9-7. I completely changed my mind on this team. With Todd Collins at the helm, they may be better off. This could be a dark horse for a playoff run!
NFC North
WIN-Chicago (under 10 wins) Finish 7-9. "I'm also pricing a 70% chance we'll see Brian Griese take over the starting job by season's end." Not only that, Griese was so bad that Sexy Rexy got his job back.
WIN-Detroit (over 6 wins) Finish 7-9. If the Lions could've made something from their 6-2 start, they could've been a fun surprise like the Cleveland Browns. Maybe next year.
LOSS-Green Bay (under 7.5 wins) Finish 13-3. Yeah, I screwed the pooch here. Unbelievable, Favre pulled this team together for a great season. I guess when you're wrong, you might as well go down in flames.
WIN-Minnesota (over 7 wins) Finish 8-8. I hated this pick b/c of the horrible QB situation but, " The Vikes Adrian Peterson could turn out to be the steal of last year's draft. This kid is going to be good." Still, for this team to have a future, get a QB!
NFC South
WIN-Atlanta (NL) Finish 4-12. "I don't care what the number is, I'm taking the under." Since the number turned out to be 5.5, I'm going to give myself credit for the win.
WIN-Carolina (under 9 wins) Finish 7-9. Honestly, I'm not sure how this team won 7 games.
LOSS-New Orleans (over 9 wins) Finish 7-9. My preseason pick to win the NFC, this turned out to be a no-brainer that went bad.
LOSS-Tampa Bay (under 7 wins) Finish 9-7. Garcia turned out to be a little better than I gave him credit for.
NFC West
LOSS-Arizona (under 7.5 wins) Finish 8-8. Who knew Kurt Warner still had it in him?
LOSS-Seattle (under 9 wins) Finish 10-6. I'm still not in love with this team, although they do play very well at home.
WIN-San Fran (under 8 wins) Finish 5-11. Always bet against the trendy team.
LOSS-St. Louis (over 7.5 wins) Finish 3-13. At least my home town team gets a good draft pick!
OVERALL: 21-11. Too bad I didn't bet each and every one of these predictions!
ATS FINAL STANDINGS (after 16 weeks):
West Coast Style: 119-111-10
Midwestern Flavor: 116-114-10
Week 17 ATS
West Coast Style: 7-8-1
2007 Regular Season (West Coast): 126-119-11
AFC East:
WIN-Buffalo (over 6 wins) Finish 7-9. Dick Jauron did a great job getting this team to 7 wins.
WIN-New England (over 11.5 wins) Finish 16-0. Toooooo easy.
WIN-NY Jets (under 8 wins) Finish 4-12. "If, I mean, WHEN Pennington gets hurt in Week 3, this team will not be able to hold it's own. Take the under, I smell a 6-10 year at best." Yes, I'm a genius.
WIN-Miami (under 7.5 wins) Finish 1-15. Way, way to easy.
AFC North:
LOSS-Baltimore (over 9.5 wins) Finish 5-11. OK, I missed this one by a mile. The Ravens lost to the Dolphins. Enough said. They now look years away from getting back on track after 07.
LOSS-Cincy (over 9 wins) Finish 7-9. I thought this was going to be the toughest division in the NFL this year and still took the over here, big mistake on both counts.
LOSS-Cleveland (under 6 wins) Finish 10-6. Seriously, could anybody have seen this coming? The Browns have a lot to work on for next year (defense) but now have an expendable QB for the upcoming draft. Stay tuned!
WIN-Pittsburgh (over 9 wins) Finish 10-6. Even after losing 3 of their last 4, the Steelers still easily beat the number.
AFC South:
WIN-Indy (over 11 wins) Finish 13-3. "This perennial powerhouse will not have a Super Bowl letdown year." OK, I'm not that smart by saying it, but at the beginning of the season a lot of "experts" thought otherwise. For once, this team is now flying under the radar. The Colts will have a tough AFC semi-final matchup against San Diego. If they can get on a roll there, watch out Patriots!
WIN-Jacksonville (over 8 wins) Finish 11-5. Every year, the Jags quietly slip into the playoffs with double digit wins. This pick was not very difficult.
WIN-Tennessee (over 7 wins) Finish 10-6. The Titans started and finished the season strong. In the middle? Not so good. For this team to improve, VY must mature as a QB and learn to throw from the pocket.
AFC West
WIN-Denver (under 9.5 wins) Finish 7-9. With an inexperienced Cutler at QB, this one turned out to be an easy pick.
WIN-Kansas City (under 7.5 wins) Finish 4-12. There were way too many question marks entering the season....and after the Brody Croyle debacle, there may be even more after 07.
WIN-Oakland (under 5 wins) Finish 4-12. Seriously, would anybody bet the Raiders to win 6?
WIN-San Diego (over 10.5 wins) Finish 11-5. My pre-season pick to win it all, this team finished very strong. With all the pressure on the Pats, who knows? Maybe they return the favor this year?
NFC East
WIN-Dallas (over 9.5 wins) Finish 13-3. This team over-achieved a bit this year. Probably the best team in the NFC with home field advantage, they'll be pretty hard to knock off at home in the playoffs. Looking back at their schedule, they faced pretty weak competition. The Giants (twice) and Packers at home are their signature wins.
WIN-NY Giants (over 8 wins) Finish 10-6. The G-men had a completely soft schedule. It was easy to see before the season....I'm not sure why everybody was surprised when the Cowboys killed them in Week 10.
WIN-Philly (under 9 wins) Finish 8-8. With so many close losses, I may be a little lucky to win this one. With a healthy McNabb, this team will be back next year!
LOSS-Washington (under 7.5 wins ) Finish 9-7. I completely changed my mind on this team. With Todd Collins at the helm, they may be better off. This could be a dark horse for a playoff run!
NFC North
WIN-Chicago (under 10 wins) Finish 7-9. "I'm also pricing a 70% chance we'll see Brian Griese take over the starting job by season's end." Not only that, Griese was so bad that Sexy Rexy got his job back.
WIN-Detroit (over 6 wins) Finish 7-9. If the Lions could've made something from their 6-2 start, they could've been a fun surprise like the Cleveland Browns. Maybe next year.
LOSS-Green Bay (under 7.5 wins) Finish 13-3. Yeah, I screwed the pooch here. Unbelievable, Favre pulled this team together for a great season. I guess when you're wrong, you might as well go down in flames.
WIN-Minnesota (over 7 wins) Finish 8-8. I hated this pick b/c of the horrible QB situation but, " The Vikes Adrian Peterson could turn out to be the steal of last year's draft. This kid is going to be good." Still, for this team to have a future, get a QB!
NFC South
WIN-Atlanta (NL) Finish 4-12. "I don't care what the number is, I'm taking the under." Since the number turned out to be 5.5, I'm going to give myself credit for the win.
WIN-Carolina (under 9 wins) Finish 7-9. Honestly, I'm not sure how this team won 7 games.
LOSS-New Orleans (over 9 wins) Finish 7-9. My preseason pick to win the NFC, this turned out to be a no-brainer that went bad.
LOSS-Tampa Bay (under 7 wins) Finish 9-7. Garcia turned out to be a little better than I gave him credit for.
NFC West
LOSS-Arizona (under 7.5 wins) Finish 8-8. Who knew Kurt Warner still had it in him?
LOSS-Seattle (under 9 wins) Finish 10-6. I'm still not in love with this team, although they do play very well at home.
WIN-San Fran (under 8 wins) Finish 5-11. Always bet against the trendy team.
LOSS-St. Louis (over 7.5 wins) Finish 3-13. At least my home town team gets a good draft pick!
OVERALL: 21-11. Too bad I didn't bet each and every one of these predictions!
ATS FINAL STANDINGS (after 16 weeks):
West Coast Style: 119-111-10
Midwestern Flavor: 116-114-10
Week 17 ATS
West Coast Style: 7-8-1
2007 Regular Season (West Coast): 126-119-11
Due to my competition Midwestern Flavor's busy holiday schedule, the competition ended one week early. Since I was in the lead and my opponent is soon to be married, he is clearly the loser!
Stay tuned for 2007 NFL playoff predictions and analysis on the West Coast edition of the Bullpen Catcher.
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