FINAL 4

We at the Bullpen Catcher are, somewhat, an honest folk. The Elite 8 picks were awful. 0-4. Y'know what? Good for us. Our blog, while overall having a winning ATS record, is at times completely terrible at predictions. But guess what? That's part of the fun of the sports world. Sometimes, you couldn't be further from right. But in the rare instance when you're right, you still feel like a genius.

The favorites dominated the first 3 games of the Elite 8. I don't talk about my personal life often. But in 1 word, my job is "adjuster". I work in the insurance biz and learn to adjust my opinion with other experts in the insurance and construction industries. When KU closed at -10 vs. Davidson, I knew this was a serious mistake by Las Vegas. KU, with it's numerous "bad losses" in recent tournament years, was going to play the game quite tight knowing that never before had 4 #1 seeds made it to the Final 4. Placing a nice sum of money on the game, I made up for the previous 3 mistakes of the weekend. Did I flip-flop? Yeah, totally! But y'know what, I knew right away my flip-flop was a great decision. Without further self-absorbed bragging, I must now post my Final 4 predictions:

• Kansas +3 North Carolina-Oooops, I did it again. I have North Carolina over UCLA in my brackets. Even with this pick, hypothetically, it could still happen. Unfortunately, I think KU will win this game outright. North Carolina is the most gifted team in the tourney. What they lack in unity, they normally make up for in talent. Although it's just 1 game, KU is clearly deeper than UNC and in this probable track meet of a game, it will show. KU is the only talented team that can "run" with UNC and looked abnormally bad against Davidson. If it wasn't for the close game with Davidson, the UNC matchup would be a virtual "pick". Because of this anomaly, I'm taking KU plus the points as I think this will be an outstanding game with KU edging out UNC in the very end. I'd price this game as a virtual coin flip...so in that sense you HAVE to take the dog +3. All of that breakdown, and yet, I didn't even bring up the obvious "Roy Williams" revenge factor.
• UCLA +2 Memphis-Wow! Look at the tournament so far! Memphis has surpassed expectations, while UCLA has just "gotten by". Although the Texas game surprised me, this outcome will not. Coached by Ben Howland, UCLA is a team that somehow wins games with their outstanding defense. If you look at the last 2 months of the season, there is no question that Calipari has held his team back to prepare for a game like this. Even with this "preparedness", Memphis will look like the US troops after Bush has declared "Mission Accomplished!" on the deck of a battleship. Take UCLA and the under, and remember the game 2 years ago to get to the Final 4.

Oh yes, there will be a Bullpen Catcher post about the championship game...even if somehow I got 0-2 in these predictions.

Elite 8

• Louisville +6 North Carolina-I'm not in love with this pick but know a few people that are.
• Xavier +6 UCLA-I am in love with this pick. I'd give Xavier a 40% chance of winning this game outright.
• Kansas -9 Davidson-As much as I'd love to see Davidson pull off the upset, they won't be able to run and gun against KU.
• Texas +3.5 Memphis-Clearly, this is my lock of the Elite 8. You're giving me the Longhorns in Houston AND points? I'm all-in.

Sweet 16

After being glued to the NCAA Tournament last year, I couldn't have been more disappointed with the number of close games and/or upsets that are so fun to watch. The first 4 days of this year's tournament clearly made up for that. Just consider what we have seen over the last 4 days:

• 12 seed Western Kentucky hitting a 3 pointer at the buzzer to knock off an outstanding Drake team in an overtime shootout.
• 13 seed San Diego hitting a last second shot to knock out an over-rated UConn team.
• 15 seed Belmont taking Duke to the wire.
• 2 seed Tennessee getting all it can handle from a good Butler team.
• 13 seed Siena trouncing 4 Vanderbilt.
• 2 #2 seeds biting the dust before the Sweet 16 (Duke, Georgetown)
• UCLA storming back to squeak past a sneaky good Texas A&M team.
• Stanford taking down Marquette in an OT thriller.
• Xavier down 9 at halftime to #14 Georgia...and then blowing them away in the 2nd half.
• Davidson, down 17 in the 2nd half, came back and beat Georgetown.

These are the kind of things that make the first weekend of March Madness so special. And now, what are we left with? We still have all 4 #1 seeds and very good spoilers like #2 Texas, #3 Xavier, #2 Tennessee, #3 Louisville, #3 Wisconsin. To top it off, we have 3 double digit seeds that are going to try and make a "George Mason" run. Can the tournament get any more exciting?

Sweet 16 picks:

• Wazzzu +7.5 North Carolina-This will be an extremely interesting game. If Wazzzu can shut down Notre Dame to 41 points in a game, I think they can do similarly as well against the most talented team in the country. If this game gets to be a shootout, Carolina will run away. I'm betting the Cougars control the game tempo and at minimum keep this one close.
• Louisville -2 Tennessee-The Vols looked "relieved" just to be survivors. Funny thing, ever since the win over Memphis, this Vols team has not looked the same. Did that one game take too much out of them? It was certainly their "Super Bowl" for the year. The Cardinals are peaking and the Vols seem to be floundering...taking the hot team in this one.
• Xavier +1 W. Virginia-For the life of me, I can't figure out why a 7 seed would be favored over a solid 3 seed. I realize the Las Vegas Sports Consultants are very high on this West Virginia team, but where's the respect for an outstanding Xavier team? I affirm my Xavier pick to the Elite 8.
• W. Kentucky +12.5 UCLA-On paper, the Bruins should handle their business relatively easily. Unfortunately, I don't like the defensive coaching style they use. As a result, this game could be a lot closer than expected.
• Kansas -12 Villanova-My #12 pick to reach the Sweet 16 had a nice ride....it's way over now. The Jayhawks are a very legit threat to cut down the nets when this thing is all said and done.
• Wisconsin -4.5 Davidson-A popular team to get "upset" in the first couple of rounds, the Badgers are playing solid right now. Although the Wildcats had a huge comeback against the Hoyas, they simply cannot and will not be able to dig themselves out of such a hole to the Badgers. Davidson may be the "funnest" Cinderella left, but I have a feeling their magical carpet ride has come to an end.
• Memphis -5 Michigan St.-I'm still not in love with the Spartans. I've seen way too many shotty road efforts from the team over the regular season. Memphis rolls.
• Texas -2 Stanford-This game should be outstanding. If this game were not in Houston, I'd take the Cardinal. In the end, the Longhorns get some hometown invigoration and squeak by a good Standford team.

Bracketology

• Belmont +19.5 Duke-This is the 3rd trip in a row to the Big Dance for Belmont. An experienced team, they could give Duke a run for their money in this game. I'm definitely take the over.
• W. Virginia -2 Arizona-Although the Wildcats have played the toughest schedule in the country, they really don't have "it" this year. On paper, they are talented but have not lived up to expectations. West Virginia is a sneaky good 7 seed...Duke could have issues getting to the Sweet 16.
• Xavier -8.5 Georgia-It was fun while it lasted for the Bulldogs, back to reality. Xavier will be an extremely tough out of this tourney.
• Baylor +3 Purdue-I'm completely unimpressed with both teams. When in doubt, go against the Big 10 in the Big Dance.
• Portland St. +23 Kansas-Portland St. is the best 16 seed. With that said, they are still worlds apart for Kansas. KU should win easily, but Portland St. can put points on the board. Again, take the over.
• UNLV +2 Kent St-If the Flashes had a superior big man, I'd take the Flashes. Kruger has the Rebels peaking at the right time once again this year. Don't expect a sweet 16 run, but a 1st round win is likely.
• CS Fullerton +11 Wisconsin-The Badgers are looking not to repeat last year's tournament performance. With a tough first round draw, they can't look too far ahead.
• USC -2.5 Kansas St-Mayo vs. Beasley. Enough said. Circle this game, it could be a 1st round classic. Then again, Beasley doesn't have the supporting cast Mayo does. USC is a dark horse in their region, tab.
• Notre Dame -6.5 George Mason-The Patriots could be a popular "upset" pick in a lot of office pools b/c of their great run a couple of years ago. Unfortunately, the Irish are far too talented for this group of Patriots.
• Winthrop +8.5 Washington St.-The Cougars, quietly, are an outstanding team but a little too low scoring to give up this many points to an tournament experienced Winthrop team. Wash St wins by 6.
• Temple +6.5 Michigan St.-I pray to God CBS does not choose to air any of this game on the West Coast.
• Oral Roberts +9 Pitt.-Pitt is going to be a popular pick to make a deep run. They peaked in the Big East tournament....careful of a good Oral Roberts team.
• Stanford -14.5 Cornell-I'm not 100% sold on Stanford, but they are in a different league of talent than the Big Red.
• Marquette -6 Kentucky-On paper, the Eagles should blow Kentucky out. Marquette also fits onto my "dark horse" list. The Eagles win going away unless Ashley Judd distracts them.
• UCLA -32 Miss Valley St-Yes, I'm giving up that many points. How did Miss. Valley St. avoid the play-in game?? Further investigation warranted.
• Texas A&M -2 BYU-FUBYU. After the team and their sore loser fans tore apart Vegas and the UNLV team today and acted like ninnies at the Mountain West tourney, karma will prove to be a Mormon bitch.
• Villanova +6 Clemson-Every year a 12 beats a 5; this is the one in 08. After being the last team in the field, Villanova is going to prove to everyone they deserved to belong. Although their defense is lacking, the Wildcats can outscore almost anybody.
• Vandy -7 Siena-Siena sucks. Bad 13 seed. Vandy has the ability to shoot lights out and run away with this one.
• Drake -4 W. Kentucky- This is a completely unfair matchup to pit 2 mid-majors against each other, but it will make for a very entertaining game. For anybody that hasn't seen Drake play yet, you're in for a treat.
• San Diego +11 UConn-San Diego isn't any good, but they'll "hang around" long enough to make this game interesting. UConn pulls away late and wins by 9.
• Indiana -1.5 Arkansas-It's unbelievable to me that the Hoosiers slipped all the way down to an 8 seed. Out of all 65 teams, I would be no more surprised to see them knock off North Carolina in the 2nd round than to see them fall flat on their face against the Razorbacks...they're just that inconsistent.
• Georgetown -16 UMBC-The Hoyas don't have the look of a team that is going to make a long run this year. Maybe we'll see differently for at least 1 game?
• Gonzaga +2 Davidson-I'm well aware of where this game is being played and that Davidson has won 98 games in a row. Unfortunately, the Zags are now healthy and Mark Few knows how to get a team deep in the NCAA tourney. The Zags have a coming out party and surprise the "experts".
• Memphis -24.5 TX Arlington-Memphis has no problem blowing out inferior opponents: see Conference USA.
• Oregon +2.5 Mississippi St-Definitely one of the better, perhaps overlooked games on the slate. The Ducks have underachieved a majority of the year but have been used to facing much better competition than the Bulldogs. This game should be close, and possibly could come down to a last second shot.
• Texas -16 Austin Peay-The Longhorns got what they wanted---a #2 seed and the potential of playing in Houston to get to the Final 4. If you want to take a dark horse to run the tables, the Longhorns could fit the bill. Texas plays defense as well as anybody and has wins over Tennessee, at UCLA, and Kansas over the course of the season.
• St. Mary's +1 Miami-Maybe I've just seen the Gaels play a couple too many times this season, but this game is a no-brainer in my book.
• Tennessee -20 American-The Vols have got to be pissed to have to get past Louisville and UNC to get to the Final 4. It's a tall order, but not impossible for this good Vols team.
• Butler -4 S. Alabama-The Jaguars got in the big dance due to having a lot of "close" calls and a win over Miss. St. I'm all-for mid-majors getting a look, but the Jags just aren't that good.
• Louisville -13 Boise St-The Cardinals are peaking at the right time and will be a very tough out. Boise St shouldn't pose any real threat.
• St. Joe's +1.5 Oklahoma-I'm not real impressed with either team, but dislike the Sooners more. This is another game I will probably try to miss.

Final 4: UNC-Kansas, UCLA-Texas

Championship: UNC over UCLA

PRE-TOURNAMENT TOP 25

1. North Carolina
2. UCLA
3. Kansas
4. Memphis
5. Texas
6. Tennessee
7. Duke
8. Georgetown
9. Wisconsin
10. Xavier
11. Marquette
12. Stanford
13. Washington St.
14. Drake
15. Clemson
16. Pittsburgh
17. Louisville
18. USC
19. Clemson
20. Michigan St.
21. Notre Dame
22. W. Virginia
23. Indiana
24. UConn
25. Gonzaga

Bubble In: South Alabama, Arizona, St. Joe's, Miami, Baylor, Illinois St., Kentucky, St. Mary's, Oregon, Virginia Tech

Bubble Out: Ohio St, UMass, Villanova, Arizona St, VCU, New Mexico, Dayton, Ole Miss

More on seedings and 1st round games later this week!

2/11 West Coast Poll

1. Memphis (23-0)
2. Duke (21-1)
3. Kansas (22-1)
4. N. Carolina (21-2)
5. UCLA (20-2)
6. Georgetown (19-3)
7. Tennessee (20-2)
8. Stanford (20-3)
9. Xavier (19-4)
10. Wisconsin (19-4)
11. Michigan St. (20-3)
12. Drake (20-1)
13. Texas (18-4)
14. Washington St. (18-5)
15. Indiana (19-3)
16. UConn (18-5)
17. Arizona (14-7)
18. Notre Dame (18-4)
19. Marquette (15-6)
20. St. Mary's (19-3)
21. Texas A&M (19-4)
22. Butler (21-2)
23. Louisville (18-6)
24. Pittsburgh (17-5)
25. Gonzaga (18-6)

Super Bowl Prediction (West Coast)

I've officially waited as long as I can to make my Super Bowl prediction. After an overkill of analysis about the big game, it seems that virtually every "professional" opinion has the Giants beating the spread. Yesterday I was at my local sportsbook and I indeed confirmed that approx. 60-65% of the action coming in is on the Giants.

This game should play out nearly nothing like the previous game that was played between the two teams. It should be a track meet from start to finish with the Pats scoring somewhere between 38 and 56 points. The Giants will have some success on offense, but in the end, Eli will make a couple of ill-advised passes and the Giants will not be able to keep up. Because I love going against the grain, I'm taking the Pats -12 at my normal wager of $50. Because I'm a bit of a degenerate, I'll be spending a lot of money on prop. bets such as "Who will win the coin toss?". I've won this wager 4 years straight....I'm going to take the Pats to win the coin toss I think this year. Final Bullpen Catcher NFL prediction

New England 52 NY Giants 24

Good luck!

PS....Naturally my #1 ranked KU team loses it's first game after being atop the inaugural West Coast Poll. Pretty funny that they couldn't handle the pressures of being ranked atop my poll.