Week 13 - TPC

I'm catching up! Another 10-6 week would look good here.

Dallas -7 vs Green Bay - Blowout Special!
St. Louis-3 vs Atlanta - I could care less who wins this game.
Washington -5.5 vs Buffalo - Skins rally together and win big
Minnesota -3.5 vs Detroit - Lots of home favorites this week. All Day should be back!
Houston +3.5 @ Tennessee - VY has looked horrendous lately. Coincidentally, the big 3 QB's from last year's draft have all looked bad. Hmmm.
Indianapolis -7 vs Jacksonville - Indy needs a statement game. This will be that game.
NYJ +1 @ Miami - I'm still rooting for the O'fer. J-E-T-S, JETSJETSJETS!
Kansas City +6 vs San Diego - For once I'm betting AGAINST the obvious pick of the week.
Seattle +3 @ Philadelphia - No McNabb, No way. Why not let Kolb pick up a start. What does AJ Feeley bring to the table that the rook doesn't? I'm just don't get it.
San Francisco +3 @ Carolina - The 9'ers live and die by Frank Gore. So does my fantasy team.
New Orleans -3 vs Tampa Bay - Not jumping off the Creole Bandwagon just yet.
Arizona -1 vs Cleveland - Should be a fun shoot out. Warner still has it....who would've thunk it?
Oakland +3.5 vs Denver - Should be a close game with both teams establishing a running game. Take the under on this one. Denver should win by a FG or less.
NYG -1 @ Chicago - Oh how the mighty have fallen. Giants win a laugher.
Pittsburgh -7 vs Cincinnati - The Steelers officially eliminate the Bengals from playoff contention. It'll be interesting to see what they do with Marvin Lewis....I think he'll get canned.
Baltimore +20.5 vs New England - If there was ever a Monday Night home underdog to take, this is it. This is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too many points. Pats win by double-digits but Ravens cover.

TPC

Week 13

I absolutely hate making my weekend picks on a Wednesday night, but here it goes.....

• Green Bay +7 Dallas-The game of the week comes on a Thursday night. From what I hear, 2/3 of the country doesn't get the NFL network. My understanding of this situation is that the NFL network charges cable companies $.80 for their services. Apparently some of the cable companies have drawn the line and instead chose not to air them? Honestly I don't care because DirecTV has this network and I'll be sipping on a bottle of wine and enjoying the 2nd best game of the year. I like the Pack in this game....quite a bit. I price the Pack with a 40% chance of winning the game outright.
• St. Louis -3 Atlanta-I almost wagered on a 2 win team giving points. The Lambs are playing better now that Jackson is healthy. The Falcons are one big clusterf#@%. I'm definitely not watching this game, but the Lambs should win easy.
• Buffalo +5.5 Washington-The Bills play most teams tough and the Skins rarely blow anybody out....taking the points here.
• Detroit +3.5 Minnesota-The Vikes look like they could be making a playoff run with their solid D and excellent running game. Unfortunately, they have no QB. I'm taking the Lions to at least momentarily, get back on track.
• Houston +3.5 Tennessee-This game could go either way. It should be an excellent game....Titans win by a FG.
• Jacksonville +6.5 Indy-I'm under the impression that the Monday Night meeting between the two teams was a little bit of a fluke. With the Colts beat up, I'm expecting at worst a close game and possibly a Jags upset.
• Miami -1 NY Jets-How bad are the Jets? Rightfully so, they're underdogs to an 0-11 Miami Dolphins team. Look for the Fins to pickup their first win of the year.
• San Diego -6 Kansas City-I'm not on the Chargers bandwagon this year by any means, but I'm definitely betting against Brody Croyle.
• Philly -3 Seattle-It's official. Seattle on the road is a completely different team. As much as I think they are better than Philly, I'm taking the Eagles with Feeley.
• San Fran +3 Carolina-It's unfortunate somebody has to win this game.
• Tampa Bay +3 New Orleans-Which Saints team shows up? I have no idea. Huge game in the division....somehow I trust the Bucs a little more.
• Cleveland +1 Arizona-This is a completely difficult game for the Browns, but I'm taking them with the roll they are on.
• Denver -3.5 Oakland-The Raiders are awful and have no chance of the playoffs. Why is JaMarcus Russell not starting at this point?
• NY Giants -1 Chicago-The G-Men finally get back on track. Take the over!
• Pittsburgh -7 Cincy-Read nothing into last week's Monday Night 3-0 debacle. That was the worst field I've ever seen played on at ANY level of football. The Steelers will crush the Bengals (unless another monsoon happens)
• New England -20.5 Baltimore-I'm still not betting against the Pats....even with last week's strangely close game. There is no chance the Ravens (Kyle Boller at the helm) can bring a quick offense like the Eagles did. The machine rolls.

Honestly in real money terms, there isn't a lot I like this week. So far, I've taken Green Bay +7, Jags +6.5, NY Giants/Chicago over 42. I'm not overly confident about these picks but my strategy this year is to bet 3-5 games at the same amount of money all year. So far, so good. Good luck this week.

Week 12 Recap

I'm going to be completely honest. I watched virtually no pro football over the holiday weekend. I was able to catch Arkansas-LSU, Kansas-Mizzou, Seattle-St. Louis in the NFL. All 3 proved to be great games. Mizzou is now #1 in the nation and an underdog in the Big 12 title game. Gotta' love college football. Until we get a playoff system, it's hard to take seriously. Anyway, TPC went 10-6 on the week and I went 8-8. All 3 real money wagers of mine were winners: Cleveland -3, Seattle -3, Chicago/Denver over 41.

Standings
TPC: 82-84-10
Rico: 88-78-10

Picks due by tomorrow night....stay tuned!

Week 12 - TPC

Happy Turkey Day everyone. Or as I like to call it, Domestic Depression. Goddamn pilgrims. Anyways, on to the picks.

Green Bay -3.5 @ Detroit - Can't bet against GB, not even on Thanksgiving. You won't find me betting on this game, though.
NYJ +14 @ Dallas - Dallas wins by 10.
Atlanta +11.5 vs Indianapolis - Too many points for such a banged-up team.
St. Louis +3 vs Seattle - The Rams are back on track.
Minnesota +7 @ NYG - Vikes' D will keep this game close until the end. Giants squeek one out.
Buffalo +7.5 @ Jacksonville - *Upset Alert* Buffalo wins 21-17
New Orleans -2 @ Carolina - Saints will rebound and still make the division interesting.
Tampa Bay -3.5 vs Washington - I'm officially off the Redskin bandwagon. Go Bucs!
Houston +3.5 @ Cleveland - Houston is healthy and will win some games down the stretch, including this one.
Cincinnati +1.5 vs Tennessee - Teams have figured out the Titans...make Vince throw. He can't.
Oakland +6 @ Kansas City - Rumors of a JaMarcus Russell sighting makes me want to change my pick.
San Francisco +10.5 @ Arizona - Way too many points to give a Kurt Warner-led team.
San Diego -9.5 vs Baltimore - Baltimore is pitiful on offense. Quick prediction - Billick resigns at the end of the season.
Chicago -2.5 vs Denver - I've said it once this season now I'll say it again, Rex will turn his season around. This is the game he does it.
Philly +21 @ New England - Damn that's a lot of points!!
Pittsburgh -16 vs Miami - A rookie QB against this defense, no sir!

TPC

Week 12....RICO

• Detroit +3.5 Green Bay-If this game was played on a normal Sunday, I may take the Pack. Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, even with less talent than their opponent, plays pretty well. This game will be close....possible Lions upset here.
• Dallas -14 NY Jets-Again on most days, 14 would seem like too many points. Since the Cowboys, and particularly TO relish the national spotlight, I'm taking the Cowboys by any spread up to 19.
• Indy -11.5 Atlanta-Although the Colts are beat up, they should have no problem with a talent-less Falcons team.
• Denver +2.5 Chicago-Cutler looks like he's matured since the beginning of the season. If their defense can stop ANY TEAM, they would look like a shoe-in to win the awful AFC West. These are 2 completely over-rated defenses, take over 41.
• Tennessee -1.5 Cincy-Even the Titans offense can score on Cincy. If Haynesworth is out again, the Bengals may have a shot.
• Buffalo +7.5 Jacksonville-Buffalo got blown out by the Pats. So what? Who hasn't? Before that game, they were playing pretty solid football. It may be a stretch for them to win this game outright, but expect a close one.
• Oakland +6 Kansas City-Ugly game, both defenses play well; both offenses are pretty bad. The Chiefs should win, but they may score only 1 TD. KC 16 Oakland 13
• Cleveland -3.5 Houston-The half point scares the hell out of me here. I'm aboard the Browns bandwagon, but I can't make myself go to the sportsbook window and take them this week.
• Seattle -3 St. Louis-After taking a 2 week hiatus, I'm once again betting against the beat up Rams. This game could possibly be entertaining, but there is much better action on this week's card.
• NY Giants -7 Minnesota-I'm definitely not on the Giants bandwagon, but with Peterson out, the Vikes will have trouble scoring AGAIN. Giants win this one handily.
• New Orleans -2 Carolina-Ewwww. Not touching this game with a 10 foot pole.
• Washington +3.5 Tampa Bay-I'm surprised to get the hook here. The Bucs looked good last week, but do the Falcons really count at this point? Look for a Skins upset here.
• San Fran +10.5 Arizona-I'm also on the Cardinals bandwagon, but 10.5 is just too many points for a team that seems to play every game down to the wire.
• Baltimore +9.5 San Diego-It will be interesting to see how the Ravens come back from the Immaculate Deflection. Although San Diego may show a rare flash of brilliance again this week, I'm betting against it. 2 completely over-rated teams here.
• New England -21 Philly-I have no idea whether McNabb is playing or not. Does it really matter? There are unconfirmed reports that some of the sportsbooks have taken this game off of the board due to the sole fact that the Pats are THAT good.
• Miami +16 Pittsburgh- Plain and simple, it's too many points. In 5 out of their 10 losses, the Dolphins lost by a FG. Throw out Dallas and New England as they are clearly better than the Dolphins, and you have 10 point losses to Philly and Cleveland and 1 very bad game at Oakland. I'm looking to bet ON the Dolphins for most of the rest of the season.

That's all for this week. Have a happy Thanksgiving.

Week 11 Recap (West Coast Style)

Every Monday and Tuesday, when it's time to recap the previous NFL week, the only thing that comes to my mind is "Wow! What a great week of football....". This season has provided some outstanding games and Week 11 was no exception. It's hard to peg the best game of the week...but I'm going to name Cleveland-Baltimore as the game from this week that we'll all remember at the end of the season. My creative name for this game: The Immaculate Deflection. Oh yeah, I just did that.


Seriously, has this ever happened at any level of sport, much less a game-tying field goal at the end of regulation? The officials ended up making the right call but the end of regulation produced 2 major questions:


1. Why are field goals not reviewable?

2. The ref put on the headphones to review the play but was supposedly told it wasn't reviewable. If this happened, how was there enough evidence to overturn the call on the field?


Needless to say, the Browns won the OT coin flip and kicked the game winning field goal on their first possession. Although this would make a completely good blog topic for another time, when is the NFL going to adopt college's version of OT? It's clearly more fair than letting a team that wins the coin flip have an approx. 35% chance of winning the game on THAT drive.


Having action on the game, the ending couldn't have been more exciting. Taking the Browns -2.5 makes me look like a genius or extremely lucky, unsure which. There were other great games (Steelers-Jets, Skins-Cowboys), but for me, the Browns-Ravens game was as exciting as any game I've seen this year. Finally back on track with real money wagers, 3-1 on the week. Indy -14.5 (L), Pats -16 (W), Houston -1 (W), Cleveland -2.5 (W). Taking all favorites, I made it my chalk week. For the season, I'm 20-15-1 in real money wagers. Although I've abandoned my "always bet against the Rams" strategy, I'm still taking the Pats every week regardless.

We're on a short week here at the Bullpen Catcher, so stay tuned for picks due by Wednesday night!


Week 11 results:

Midwestern Flavor: 8-7-1

West Coast Style: 8-7-1



STANDINGS

Midwestern Flavor: 72-78-10

West Coast Style: 80-70-10

Week 11 - TPC

Quick picks again this week.

Jacksonville -3 vs San Diego
Indianapolis -14.5 vs Kansas City
Oakland +5.5 @ Minnesota
Cleveland -2.5 @ Baltimore
NYJ +10 vs Pittsburgh
Atlanta +3 vs Tampa Bay
Cincinnati -3 vs Arizona
Philadelphia 10 vs Miami
Dallas -10.5 vs Washington
New Orleans +1 vs Houston
Green Bay -10 vs Carolina
NYG -3 @ Detroit
St. Louis +3 @ San Francisco
Seattle -6 vs Chicago
New England -14.5 @ Buffalo
Tennessee +1 @ Denver

TPC

Week 11 - Rich

• San Diego +3 Jacksonville-This game opened as a pik and has already moved to 3. Funny thing is I would consider taking Jacksonville outright. Look for LDT to get back on track in a close one.
• Indy -14.5 Kansas City-Brodie Croyle is starting for a Chiefs team that averages 15 points a game. Enough said....this game is over by halftime.
• Minnesota -5.5 Oakland-2 completely inept offenses. Under 35 points looks like an outstanding proposition. Look for Peterson to carry the Vikes yet again.
• Cleveland -2.5 Baltimore-When Kyle Boller is a better option at QB, your team has issues. I'm high on Cleveland....until they prove me wrong, I'm playing them almost weekly.
• Pittsburgh -10 NY Jets-The Jets defense will give up 30+ to an under-rated Steeler offense. The spread is high, but Roethlisberger is having a big year and has his best weapon back (Ward). Steelers win a rout.
• Atlanta +3 Tampa Bay-I hate picking John Joseph Harrington in any situation, but the Bucs on the road are pretty weak. If the Falcons win this game, they are right back in the division champion picture. This will definitely be an ugly game, but competitive.
• Arizona +3 Cincy-The Cardinals are the "other" dark horse in the NFL to make a playoff run. Kurt Warner and a good Cardinal offense should have a field day against Cincy. Cardinals win this game outright.
• Miami +10 Philly-Philly won an impressive game last week. Maybe they are improving? I'm still not sold on their offense. Miami can hang with Philly for most of the game....too many points here.
• Washington +10.5 Dallas-Huge spread for a big rivalry. Dallas (and Green Bay) look to be the class of the NFC. The Cowboys definitely win this game, but I'm picking them by 10.
• Houston -1 New Orleans-I know I said I was not going to bet on or against the Saints anymore this year....but I smell something cooking in Houston. Fresh off a bye week, Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, and Ahman Green are all back? This offense just improved 150%. I like the Texans by double digits here. (Waiting for the Saints to somehow screw me once again this year).
• Green Bay -10 Carolina-Vinny is going to have major problems scoring against the Packers defense. The Pack continue to improve and will have no problems again this week.
• Detroit +3 NY Giants-I'm looking forward to this game. The Lions play well at home but the Giants are the more talented team. Definitely not wagering this game, but this game should be close. Taking the home dog.
• San Fran +3 St. Louis-This game will have a huge impact on the draft next year....that's about it.
• Chicago +6 Seattle-I'm not buying into the "new" Seahawk offense, but that's not why I'm taking the Bears. Sexy Rexy is back! He led his team to victory against an awful Raiders team and has a new-found lease on life. For maybe a couple of games, he'll play well and make everybody feel guilty for wanting him benched in favor of Griese. And then he'll bomb again in a huge game which will probably lead to his ultimate demise in Chicago. Bears in a possible outright upset.
• New England -14.5 Buffalo-Again, why pick against the Patriots in any situation?
• Denver -1 Tennessee-Tough pick here. The Titans do run pretty well and that's the one thing the Broncos can't stop. On paper it would only make sense to take the Titans. I'm going against reason here and taking the Broncos at home on Monday Night. Under 38 looks outstanding.

10 things from Week 10

We learned A LOT in Week 10. In fact, Week 10 revealed more about the strength of more NFL teams than any other week. Let's examine a little more closely what we learned.





1. Yes, the Colts lost. But let me get this straight....Manning throws 6 INTs, the Chargers had a 23 point lead, Vinatieri misses 2 FGs (including a chip shot game winner), and the Colts STILL nearly beat a probable playoff team on the road? This game showed how far above the rest of the NFL the Colts and Pats actually are. My theory is this: Take away these 2 teams and the AFC and NFC are approximately the same strength. Think about it. Upper rung teams: Cowboys, Giants, Packers vs. Steelers, Chargers, Jags. Horrible teams: St. Louis, San Fran vs NY Jets, Miami. And in-between, a whole lot of mediocrity: Washington, Arizona, Detroit, the entire NFC South vs. Buffalo, Cleveland, Baltimore, Cincy, the entire AFC West (minus Oakland). The Chargers fit into both categories...mediocrity and upper rung. This team has the most wasted talent in the league. Nice job firing Marty. What'd we learn here? This is definitely NOT the Chargers year and the Colts are that much better than the rest of the league.





2. Dallas exposed the NY Giants. The Giants are pretenders and it showed last week. Yes, they'll make the playoffs...but look at their 6 wins. Philly and Washington are decent, but not great wins, the rest? Miami, NY Jets, San Fran, Atlanta! Let me get this straight, they get complimented for playing good defense against these teams. I call shenanigans. If this team was from any "normal" U.S. city, they would looked at the same way the Detroit Lions are. A team that beat up on soft competition and may make the playoffs, but will come back down to reality once the competition gets better.





3. Which leads to #3. I nearly bought into the Lions 6-2 record. Arizona dominated them...bringing them back to reality. Looking ahead to their late season schedule, 10 wins may be a stretch: Green Bay (twice), NY Giants, Dallas, Kansas City, at Minnesota and at San Diego. It's beginning to look like a 9-7 season at best. What'd we learn? Detroit is in trouble during the 2nd half of the season and Arizona is very well coached....possible dark horse to make a playoff run. Remaining Arizona schedule: at Cincy, San Fran, Cleveland, at Seattle, at New Orleans, Atlanta, St. Louis. If they can learn to win a couple road games, this team could sneak in to the postseason.





4. The Titans lack of solid QB play is finally catching up with them. VY needs to grow up and learn to not throw like a 15 year old girl. It was easy to be high on him when the Titans were winning, but the over-achieving defense can only carry the team so far. With that said, VY is still a winner in my book. He has the Titans at 6-3 and they remain one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL this year. If he can progress, the Titans could be a solid team for years to come.





5. The Saints, after thoroughly confusing everybody, appear to once again not have it this year. I'm going to discontinue wagering on or against this team in all capacities. They look outstanding for 4 straight games and get blown away by the lowly Rams at home? Obviously, they have serious defensive issues, but the offense should be able to carry the team....but somehow that's inconsistent. Again, stay away from wagering on this team.





6. The Ravens don't give up a TD and get blown out. This pains me to say it, but McNair has reached the point of no return. The Ravens are better off with Kyle Boller at the helm....I can't believe under any circumstances I just mentioned the previous statement.





7. If I've ever seen a good loss, it was Cleveland proving that they can hang tough with a good Pittsburgh team on the road. This turned out to be the best game of Week 10. Pittsburgh rallied from behind and then held off the Browns final drive in an outstanding divisional battle. 4 road games remain(Baltimore, NY Jets, Arizona, Cincy)....if the Browns can split these, San Fran, Buffalo, and Houston travel to Cleveland...a likely 3-0 there. We could be looking at a 10-6 Browns team that may sneak into the playoffs. What a surprise!





8. Green Bay is even better than we thought....completely dominant performance over Minnesota in Week 10. This team seems to be getting better as the season progresses. Dallas and Green Bay are the class of the NFC....look for the team that gains home field advantage to head to the Super Bowl.





9. Improbably, the Buffalo Bills are 5-4. Unfortunately for them, it's their turn to get stomped by New England next Sunday Night. Although they are 5-4, it doesn't appear their offense can carry them into the postseason. Also, they still have 4 very tough road games against Jacksonville, Washington, Cleveland, and Philly. So Buffalo, enjoy the good feeling while it lasts. 7-9 finish at best.





10. Oakland is now 2-7. If it wasn't for Buffalo, they would have the worst offense in the league. Now that they are clearly out of the picture, it's time to see what JaMarcus Russell can bring to the table. Oakland, now 3 games out of 1st, officially has nothing to lose. If for any reason we don't see Russell in the next game or two, Lane Kiffin will find himself on the hot seat.

Results from Week 10:

Midwestern Flavor 8-5-1

West Coast Style 6-7-1

STANDINGS

Midwestern Flavor 64-71-9

West Coast Style 72-63-9

Slowly, the competition is starting to heat up!

Week 10 - TPC

Quick picks this week. Go Titans! Good luck Rico.

Tennessee -4.5 vs Jacksonville
Denver +3.5 @ Kansas City
Buffalo -3 @ Miami
Cleveland +10 @ Pittsburgh
New Orleans -11.5 vs St. Louis
Atlanta +4 @ Carolina
Washington -3 vs Philadelphia
Green Bay -6 vs Minnesota
Cincinnati +4.5 @ Baltimore
Chicago -3.5 @ Oakland
NY Giants +1 vs Dallas
Arizona -1 vs Detroit
Indianapolis -3.5 @ San Diego
Seattle -10 vs San Francisco

TPC

Poker talk

In early July, my parents were in town to visit. Like myself, my father is a bit of a poker player. Although his stakes are higher than mine, I talked him into playing the 11 PM $60 tournament at the Sahara. 110 or so players started the event (WSOP season led to higher fields). I busted out rather undramatically in approximately 40th place. My father, on the other hand, played solid poker and was picking up the right hands at the right time. When his KK nearly doubled up on A-J off at approx 3 AM, he was 2nd or 3rd in chips with about 15 players remaining. He was a shoe-in for the final table. About 20 minutes later with 14 players remaining the following hand took place at his table: Player in 2nd position (very tight) pushes all in. He has the enough chips to put every player in except one...my father. My father has the button and picks up AcKc. After thinking for a few seconds, he calls. The flop: Kd-8s-3c. Turn: 6h. River Jd. Without reading further, did my father make the right call?

I've presented this situation to many of my poker playing friends (many of which are professional poker players). Approximately 80% of them state that my father made the correct play here. Regardless of the buyin (final table only pays out), you have to play to win the tournament. If he wins the hand, he is commanding chip leader and has a dominating chip stack. 1st in the tourney payed around $2400. For a $60 buy-in, that is not bad!

This is where I beg to differ....in a huge way. The player in early position raising all-in with a big stack OBVIOUSLY has a huge hand. You can boil this down to approximately 7 hands. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, or AQ. Any other hands like 99, 88, or AJ suited are very highly unlikely for this opponent. Because he is such a tight player, I found it very unlikely that he held TT or AQ. The most likely outcome is AK, JJ or QQ. Outside chance of KK or AA. With this knowledge, we can proceed as follows:

If my opponent has AQ, I'm a huge favorite....but it's highly unlikely b/c he's that tight.
If my opponent has TT, it's a coin clip...but it's somewhat unlikely he has this b/c he's that tight.
If my opponent has JJ or QQ, it's a coin flip with him slightly favored.....good chance he has this.
If my opponent has AK, it's a push...and I'm slightly favored being suited.
If my opponent has AA or KK, I'm screwed.....bigtime!

This is my take on the hands his opponent likely has. Honestly, I saw the hand and put him on QQ. When my father called, I knew it was a mistake w/o seeing his cards.

What did the opponent have? JJ. Scrolling backward....that was a devastating river card.

My strategy here is to NOT make a likely coin flip for your virtual tournament life. Although it would have been slightly hard being in the moment, the correct play is to laydown AK...pricing in there is a 1 in 4 chance that my opponent picked up KK or AA and I'm screwed. 50% of the time (at least) I'm pricing a coin flip for my virtual tournament life. Why do that? My strategy is to live to play another day.

Maybe I won't be big stack when I reach the final table....but:
A: at least I got there to get paid
B: at least I have I have the chance to outplay or out-luck the remaining field

My father busted out a couple hands later with A7 offsuit trying to make something happen on a short stack. Although he still believes he made the right play (as do much of my poker friends), I play another way. Comments?

Week 10

After falling off, it's time to get back on the horse. Week 10 predictions (West Coast Style)

• Jacksonville +4.5 Tennessee-Garrard practiced today. If he plays, this is the correct pick as it should be an outstanding game. If he's out again, look for the Titans defense to swallow Quinn Gray whole.
• KC -3.5 Denver-Cutler is very questionable when he is healthy, especially on the road. He practiced today, but regardless, the Broncos are in trouble here. Throw in an absolutely awful Denver run defense and Priest Holmes should be the big story this week. This line appears to be heading for 3, so if you want the Chiefs wait a day or two.
• Buffalo -3 Miami-How ironic would it be if the Pats go 16-0 and the Dolphins 0-16? A resurgent Bills team should handle the Dolphins easily. Even J-Loss on the road can beat the Miami secondary. For some odd reason, money is coming in on the Dolphins....praying this line goes to 2.5.
• Cleveland +10 Pittsburgh-This game has the potential to be a shootout. Can the Browns keep up? With momentum on their side, I'm expecting a close game here.
• New Orleans -11.5 St. Louis-I picked the Saints to represent the NFC before the season. Starting 0-4, things looked bleak. Now? They flipped the switch! Brees looks like the QB of last year and the offense is clicking. St. Louis is awful. It's quite embarrasing for your favorite team to be 0-9 after this week. Expect yet another blowout on the road. I'd take the Sains on any spread under 20.
• Atlanta +4 Carolina-John Joseph Harrington on the road. I'm on my way to another 4-10 week.
• Washington -3 Philly-The spread is easing towards 2.5 and may be worth a play there. Philly has serious offensive problems and the Skins play solid D.
• Minnesota +6 Green Bay-If the Vikes had a QB, they'd be a serious contender. They will have serious problems scoring against a good Packer defense, but I expect a close game.
• Cincy +4.5 Baltimore-It's official; I'm going down with the ship on the Bengals. How is it that they are getting 4.5 against a bad Ravens team? I like the Bengals in an overdue upset here.
• Chicago -3.5 Oakland-It's a good idea to not pick the Raiders anymore this season.
• Dallas -1 NY Giants-I've been back and forth on this game since the line came out. In the end, I'm taking the Cowboys offense to outslug the Giants offense. Should be a great game.
• Detroit +1 Arizona-Obvious game of the week, what am I missing?
• Indy -3.5 San Diego-Look for the Colts to be pissed. Again, has the potential to be an outstanding game.
• San Fran +10 Seattle-I hate this pick, but it's just too many points.

www.sexxpresso.com

This is the greatest idea I've seen in forever. Just came to Vegas.

GOOD LUCK!

Survival of the fittest, NFL recap West Coast Style

Let's be honest, Week 9 was b-b-b-brutal for everybody I know. Usually by about week 5 or 6 I absolutely hit the wall in wagering. By Week 5 or 6 of an NFL season, I feel like I know who is good and end up making somewhere between 7 and 192 bets...winning approximately 1 of them. Bad news and good news after last week. The bad news: I went 4-10 ATS overall. The good news: I've matured enough in my wagering career that I only ended up making 5 wagers for the week and ended up 2-3 (thanks to Pittsburgh last night). I survived THE bad week of NFL wagering. There might be other bad weeks, but that one should top them all. Unlike some years, I'm a survivor.

To recap last week, it was so very bad that I needed the J-E-T-S and Browns to narrowly beat their respective spreads to achieve half of my weekly win total. TPC, the Midwestern Flavor, gained 2 games on me by going 6-8. Riveting competition. Overall standings:
West Coast: 66-56-8
Midwestern Flavor: 56-66-8

As far as the big game goes, the Pats proved in the end they were the superior team. Can we go ahead and say 16-0? If this doesn't happen I may be shocked. If it weren't for the lopsided officiating, the Pats would've won the game going away. Speaking of such, my point here is that championship teams overcome bad officiating. Think back to the Seahawks-Steelers Super Bowl. What was everybody's #1 complaint about the game? The officials handed the game to the Steelers? Yeah, not exactly...but my point: good teams overcome even unfair obstacles. You think Tiger Woods packs it in after his ball inexplicably takes a bad bounce off of a cart path? That's the biggest difference between greatness and just being good. I'm done ranting.

Week 10 preview: Several outstanding games on tap.

• Cleveland at Pittsburgh: Huge divisional game. The Steelers should have somewhat of a letdown after their big win Monday Night. Look for a close game here.
• Philly at Washington: Will be competitive, but definitely not the most exciting football in Week 10
• Atlanta at Carlolina: pass
• St. Louis at New Orleans: Seriously, the Rams have another injury? Little out for the season? This team is cursed.
• Buffalo at Miami: should be close...can the Fins get their 1st win?
• Denver at KC: most years this is good, pass this time.
• Jacksonville at Tennessee: definitely must see (assuming Garrard is back and nobody else gets arrested).
• Minnesota at Green Bay: big divisional game...and the best RB since LDT. And don't the Packers have somebody famous at QB?
• Cincy at Baltimore: 2 non-playoff teams, should be a good game though.
• Dallas at NY Giants: game of the week, enough said.
• Detroit at Arizona: strangely, I'm looking forward to this game. Who would've thought that before this year?
• Chicago at Oakland: PASS
• Indy at San Diego: co-game of the week. Indy has New England and SD back-to-back...this has to be the toughest scheduling ever.
• San Fran at Seattle: turdfest on Monday Night

For no other reason except to say it's GAMBLING SEASON as college football winds down with outstanding games, college basketball begins, and the NFL is in full swing...here are my college picks this week. Note: I'm 0-1-1 on real money games wagered this season.

1. Colorado -5.5 Iowa St

2. Air Force -2.5 Notre Dame

3. Alabama -4.5 Miss St.

4. Stanford +10 Wash St.

5. E. Carolina -7 Marshall

6. Texas Tech +6 Texas

7. Oklahoma -37.5 Baylor

8. Kansas -5 Okla. St.

9. Florida -6 S. Carolina

10. C. Florida -20 UAB

11. Navy -15 North Texas

Notice: I'm not playing all of these picks, but I'm guaranteeing at least 6-5 or your money back. It's quite OK to play favorites in college football...this is why the sportsbooks love the fact that more money comes in on NFL games than college.

Week 9 - TPC

Sorry for the late entry and the following quick picks. I've had a very busy week and didn't have the time to post until now. Sorry they're so late. Maybe picking with my gut will actually help me this week!

Washington -3.5 @ New York Jets
Kellen Clemens, I'd like for you to meet the Redskins' defense. Oh by the way, you'll be playing without your go-to receiver, Laveranues Coles. Yeah, good luck with that. Never been so scared of a half point but the Skins should win a close one...20-16 sounds right.

Kansas City -2.5 vs Green Bay
I like KC at home. Especially against a very lucky Packers team. KC wins late and Favre throws 4 picks.

Tampa Bay -3.5 vs Arizona
What happens when you're picking in a hurry? You take the favorites....there's definitely a theme developing here. Another half point that scares the shit out of me but I like the Bucs by a TD.

Carolina +4.5 @ Tennessee
Finally, an underdog. I like my Titans to win this game but give me the points on a late cover. LET'S GO TITS....LET'S GO TITS....

Atlanta -3 vs San Francisco
San Fran is too banged up to be taken seriously. Their offense has been abysmal and they'll probably be without Frank Gore this week. If he does play I don't anticipate him being very effective. That leaves us with Maurice Hicks and Michael Robinson. I'd actually take Joey Harrington in this case. Hate to give the points but Falcons win a close game (possible push) that nobody will be watching.

New Orleans -3.5 vs Jacksonville
I had Jacksonville penciled in to win this game outright until I remembered Quinn Gray is still starting for the Jags. I expect the Saints to load the box up with 12 people and dare Gray to beat them. No way that happens. Saints punch the Jags in the mouth early and coast to an easy win.

Detroit -3 vs Denver
I hope Mike Martz is smart enough to run Kevin Jones 30 times against the horrible run D of the Broncos, but I'm worried that might happen. If Martz gets pass happy, the Lions will lose this game. And to think someone is going to give this guy another head coaching gig. That's scary. Lions in a close one (another possible push).

Cincinnati -1 @ Buffalo
At some point the Bengals have to start winning games, don't they? They should kill this Bills team....should being the operative word. Go Bengals!

San Diego -7 @ Minnesota
My gut tells me to take the points but I can't bring myself to do it. Chargers should destroy the Vikes. Man, I really should take the points!! Nope....gonna stick with SD to win big.

Seattle +2 @ Cleveland
All signs point to a Cleveland win, but I think this is where the clock strikes midnight for the Browns. They have been playing out of their minds and there's no way they can keep this up. Seattle wins by a late FG - should be an interesting game either way.

Indianapolis +4.5 vs New England
Let me get this straight. I get the defending Super Bowl champs at home, undefeated, and playing the best football they've ever played, on both sides of the ball no less, AND I get 4.5 points??? I just hope this games turns out to be as good as advertised. Indy will finally show everyone that the Pats are mere mortals and can be stopped with a good pass rush and great secondary play. No way the Pats continue this dominance with a blatant refusal to run the ball. Indy wins by double-digits. CROWN THEIR ASSES!

Oakland -3 vs Houston
Sage Rosenfels, Kevin Walter, Ron Dayne, Adimchinobi Echemandu, and Andre Johnson will all play prominent roles in this game. I'll take my chances with the Black and Silver. I do have one prediction for this game - RB Justin Fargas of Oakland will establish himself as the man in Oakland and will be the hottest waiver-wire pickup of the week in fantasy football. Write that down.

Dallas -3 @ Philadelphia
Dallas will reassert themselves as the best team in the NFC. I don't even see how this game is close. Cowboys by two TDs.

Baltimore +8.5 @ Pittsburgh
I don't get this line? What about this game says blowout? Two run-first teams, two really good defenses, a ball control offense that will make paint drying seem more exciting? Give me the points and I'll watch the highlights Tuesday morning.

Sorry for the late, quick picks. I'll try to do better next time.

TPC

Week 9 - Rich

Let's face it, last week's football may have been the worst of the year. There were way too many blowouts and very few watchable games. As it turned out, probably the best game turned out to be the Packers-Broncos Monday Night game. How the Broncos did not win the game 17-13 is still beyond me. Blame Cutler? Shanahan? The end of the Broncos final drive was so poorly managed that you would have thought Dennis Green took over coaching the Broncos. Taking the Broncos -3, it made me absolutely sick. Last week's wagers: Cleveland -3 (W), New England -16.5 (W), Oakland +7.5 (W), Cincy +3.5 (L), Denver -3 (L). Again, bet on New England, against the Rams. 15-1 ATS on the year. This is not rocket science. Sadly, the Lambs have the week off this week....and the Pats....I think I heard they might be playing this week?

Pats. New England, so far this year, looks like the most dominant team in history. They are a machine. Flawless. This team has incredible talent AND is pissed off by the whole cheating scandal. I've never seen anything like it.

Colts. Indy, in most years, would look like a team that nobody could possibly stop from repeating as Super Bowl Champs. Offensively, they are still as good as anybody and their defense has improved dramatically since the return of Bob Sanders. Throw in a raucous crowd at the RCA dome, and you have one of the most unbeatable teams in history.

I'm going on record as saying this is the first ever Super Bowl played in November. Winner take all. Home field advantage is at stake halfway through the season. Maybe the Pats could come back to the RCA dome and beat the Colts in January, but there's not a snowball's chance in hell that the Colts can takeout the Pats in Foxboro in January. It's usually not wise to overhype one game, but when the stakes are this high and the rivalry this good, how can you not? This is the most anticipated regular season game since San Fran-NY Giants in 1990. Both teams were 10-1 entering that game and squared off on Monday Night Football. San Fran ended up winning the game 7-3. That game was a little strange, so hopefully this game will be more "normal".

Over/Under: 56. This is the highest NFL total I can recall. Even with that said, how does this game not go over the total? Regardless, the only thing we can't guarantee is that the game itself will live up to the hype. If they played 10 times (at Indy), I'd take the Pats by double digits 5 out of 10. The Pats would win by a TD or so 1 or 2; Pats by a FG 1 or 2. My take is that New England beats Indy outright 8 out of 10 times. They are just that good.

Week 8 picks

• NY Jets +3.5 Washington-As much as I hate the 1 win J-E-T-S, the Skins on the road don't blow out anybody. Even without Coles, the J-E-T-S can keep it C-L-O-S-E.
• Kansas City -2 Green Bay-The Packers play solid defense and the Chiefs quietly play solid D as well. This game should be low scoring, and barring another Favre miracle, the Chiefs win a close game.
• Arizona +3.5 Tampa-I think I've figured it out. Take the Cardinals as the underdog, but bet against them as the favorite. Seems to work pretty well so far this season.
• Carolina +4.5 Tennessee-Tough game to pick. The Titans are clearly the better team and I hate Testaverde's old ass, but this game (as are most Titans games) will be close. Titans win another game by 3-4 points.
• San Fran +3 Atlanta-I'm not giving points with the Falcons against ANYBODY.
• Jacksonville +3.5 New Orleans-I actually like this game a lot. The Jags are not getting any respect and are quite solid. New Orleans is starting to turn their season around but will stumble against a good AFC opponent. Jags win outright by a TD.
• Denver +3 Detroit-The Lions are a huge surprise this year. Who knew Kitna was right when he said they would win 10 this year? KJ should have a big day against the Broncos run D, but this is a do or die game for the Broncos. At minimum, they should keep this one close.
• Cincy -1 Buffalo-I've gotten burned a few times this year by the Bungles. This is a coin flip of a game, but I'm going to take what I think to be the better team here.
• San Diego -7 Minnesota-No brainer, the Chargers will have absolutely no problem with the QBless Vikes. Chargers by 20.
• Cleveland -2 Seattle-Another game that I like a lot. The Browns are quietly putting together a good season. The offense is clicking, and at home, they may blow the Seahawks out of the water. The Lions and Browns are good this year...and the Cubs made the playoffs. Unbelievable.
• New England -4.5 Indy-Biggest game in years...unfortunately New England may put up 50 on the Colts defense. Look for New England to lead most of the game by 10-14 with the Colts constantly trying to keep up. 8-0 ATS....no way I'm bailing on the Pats in the greatest "F you" game of the season.
• Houston +3 Oakland-No Matt Schaub OR Andre Johnson. Unfortunately Oakland is completely unimpressive offensively. If I had to guess, Oakland wins this game by a FG. Thankfully, nobody will point a gun to my head and make me watch this game.
• Philly +3 Dallas-With everybody talking about the Pats-Colts game, this is secretly going to be the best game of Week 9. Huge game in the NFC East. Thankfully, it's on Sunday Night instead of 1:00 while the Pats-Colts are playing. This game could be end of the season for the Eagles. I'm taking the desperate Eagles over a more talented Cowboys team.
• Pittsburgh -8.5 Baltimore-I have a horrible record on MNF this year, but am confident in this pick. The Steelers will blow out the Ravens on national television. Can you say exposed?

Good luck in Week 9