All These Upsets--I'm a Little Upset!

Those of you who share my obsession—or “healthy appreciation,” as I like to think of it— for MMA may be startled by the unprecedented string of upsets in the UFC lately. In recent months we have seen the following:

1) Forty-three-year-old Randy Couture came of retirement at UFC 68 to defeat heavyweight champion Tim Sylvia, a man thirteen years his junior. Giving up six inches of height and fifty pounds to the much larger Sylvia, Couture dominated the fight, winning all five rounds and earning a unanimous decision victory.

2) Outspoken underdog Matt Serra TKO’d welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre, arguably the UFC’s best pound-for-pound fighter, with a barrage of strikes in the first round. Odds makers gave Serra virtually no chance to win this fight.

3) Relatively unknown Gabriel Gonzaga took on international superstar Mirko Cro Cop in the main of event of the much-hyped UFC 70. Gonzaga appeared to be little more than a sacrificial lamb for Cro Cop on his road to a title shot. With less than a minute in the first round, Gonzaga landed devastating right high kick and handed Cro Cop the most brutal loss of his career.

When I first started watching MMA a little over a year ago, I could pretty much tell you who would win most of the fights I saw—like that Matt Hughes would beat Royce Gracie, or that Tito Ortiz would brutalize Ken Shamrock in their rematch. I’ll admit, however, that there would be an occasional shocker—like Joe Lauzon over Jens Pulver or Anderson Silva over Rich Franklin—but there seemed to be an overriding logic that governed the MMA world. The aging fan-favorite would fall to the younger, trash-talking champion. The endearing reality show winner would be pummeled by his stronger, more athletic adversary. The fearsome heavyweight striker would slaughter his sacrificial lamb without incident. The recent rash of upsets, however, has left an indelible mark on the MMA landscape.

Although we’re still amid the most tumultuous period in UFC history, let me assure you that normalcy will return. The MMA gods are a fickle bunch, but they will soon restore order. Here’s how I explain the recent flurry of upsets.

First, it can be argued that MMA is the most fluke-friendly sport on the planet. Roger Clemens can take the mound one night and give up seven or eight earned runs. That’s highly irregular for the rocket, but it is not without precedent. But Clemens will still have thirty other starts that season—many opportunities to redeem himself. One bad night is barely a blip on the radar screen during a 162-game season. At UFC 70, on the other hand, Mirko Cro Cop had his first bad night in several years—and now his career has been irreparably damaged. When you only compete three or four times a year, one mistake can have catastrophic consequences. What’s worse, an athlete like Clemens can hang a slider that’s hit out of the park in any given game—but if that’s his only mistake that night, he can still pull out a “w.” When Cro Cop dropped his hands for a moment—just one moment!— he found himself suffering the most brutal knockout of his career. Whereas sports like football, baseball, and basketball leave ample room error, one mistake in MMA can tarnish your career forever. Given the lack of major MMA venues, the ever-increasing competition, and the promotional politics behind each fight, MMA is an unforgiving business.

Secondly, one might argue that the groundswell of MMA competition has led to better athletes entering the sport. In years past, the world’s best athletes would usually set their sights on the NBA, NFL, or Major League Baseball. But with the recent spike in MMA popularity and the resulting increase in fighter salaries, top athletes are now beginning to train in the sport. And many of them, it appears, slip under the radar. The fact remains that the both the UFC and Cro Cop should have given Gabriel Gonzaga more respect. The UFC sent him into the octagon to lose to Cro Cop, and Cro Crop failed to treat him as a dangerous opponent. We know how that one turned out.

Hopefully, top-tier fighters in the UFC are beginning to take notice. Gone are the days where title holders and contenders square off against mediocre talent. But with lots of preparation and a little vigilance, I think most UFC stars will make the adjustment and begin to enter the octagon more prepared. The upsets, I predict, will soon come to an end. Make no mistake, however. The competition will be tougher than ever!

fighting pundit