NFL Playoffs, Round 2 (West Coast)

Round 2 of the playoffs is normally the least anticipated round. It's a virtual lock that at least 2 of the 4 games will be blowouts. With a week of rest and the chance to regroup, the Patriots, Cowboys, Packers, and Colts have a huge advantage. As a result, the spreads for these games are high. History has proven that the home teams in Round 2 fare very well. The common theory in Vegas is to lay the points, regardless of how high the number. I can't quite put my finger on it, but this year feels a little different. With reckless abandon, here are my Round 2 picks.

• Seattle +7.5 Green Bay-(Thankfully I have action on this at 9) All year I've harped on how bad the Seahawks are on the road. Not only are the horrible on the road, they are playing at Lambeau in January. Understandably, the spread is high. With those factors in mind, I believe the quick Seahawks defense could create havoc for Favre. As under-rated as the Seahawks defense is, the reason I'm taking Seattle is because of their experience. I'm taking the much more playoff experienced Seahawks to keep this game close against a young Packers team that will struggle to win this one. Of all the games in round 2, this game to me smells the most like a potential upset. Seattle 23 Green Bay 20.
• NY Giants +7.5 Dallas-(No action yet) The Cowboys will win this game. Simply put, they are clearly a better team than the Giants. Romo will have a huge game, but so will Manning. TO is banged up and the Cowboys will take at least a half to knock the rust off. Scary fact for Dallas: NY is 8-1 on the road this year. The only loss: a Week 1 shootout at Dallas. The Giants lost that game by 10 but only lost ATS due to a long TO TD late in the game. Dallas 34 NY Giants 27.
• San Diego +8 Indy-(Action at 8.5) The Colts had a week to rest and get healthy and should come out of the gate firing. This team will be extremely tough to knock off at home. The Chargers are the hottest team in the NFL and always play the Colts tough. Their win against the Colts earlier this year may have been a fluke, but this team is playing a lot better than they were at the time. Rivers doesn't play well in the cold, which is good, considering Indy plays in a dome. I see the Colts leading much of the game by 10-14 and the Chargers scoring a back-door TD to cover. Indy 31 San Diego 26.
• Jacksonville +13 New England (no action yet) -This bet just "feels" wrong. Garrard (the QB of a city with warm weather) on the road against arguably the best team in history on a week's rest in January. If the Pats didn't do just enough to win so many games at the end of the year I'd be going the other way on this. The Pats will score plenty, but the Jags are exactly the kind of team that could surprise them. If the Jags establish a running game and control the ball, this game will be close. In the last 6 games of the season, the Pats gave up 35 to the Giants, 28 to Philly, and 24 to Baltimore. The Jags offense, as unimpressive at it appears on paper, is working considerably well lately. Since getting embarrassed on Monday Night Football against the Colts in Week 7, the LOWEST the Jags have scored is 24 points. I'd give the Jags about a 20% chance to pull the outright upset here as they have nothing to lose and ALL the pressure is on the Pats. Patriots 34 Jags 30.

Like I said before, picking against the home teams in Week 2 goes against conventional wisdom. Not only did I do that, I did it on all 4 games. When I go 0-4 this week and look like a complete buffoon, remember at least I had the guts to be this ridiculous.