Super Bowl Preview

Championship Sunday started a little slow but ended with a bang. Maybe it had something to do with the 2 bottles of wine consumed?

The Chargers were good enough to beat the spread, but were really no threat to beat the Pats. Rivers played well, but when healthy I still think the Chargers could have given the Pats a serious run for their money. The fact that they hung around as well as they did is a testament to the depth and talent of the Chargers. Like a true Cubs fan, I must say wait until next year for them. I'm not going to lie, I jumped on their bandwagon the last 2 years. It was a fun ride.

Even with Brady having an average at best game, the Pats are simply too good for their competition. Look back at this season. They played every tough team in the NFL with the exception of the Packers. What they've done is remarkable and they will likely go down as the best team in NFL history. It's really been a blast watching them dominate the league the way they have this year.

Eli Manning has by far been the best QB of this postseason. What are the odds I would say this? 30-1? Somehow, he has managed to not turn the ball over this postseason. He's never been terrible, just inconsistent. Because of his inconsistency, we've all been waiting for the other shoe to drop. This year, I'm not sure it will. He may throw a pick or two against the Pats, but it's hard to imagine he'll stink up the joint like Grossman did last year.

This Giants dominated the Packers, but needed OT to beat them. At 10-1, they have proven to be road warriors. I'm not sure I've ever seen a team disproportionally play this much better on the road as opposed to at home. Although they have surprised Vegas for about 5 games straight, the Giants still opened as 13 point underdogs against the high flying New England Patriots. At first this number seemed high, but when you break it down, I believe the spread fits the matchup.

In Week 17, the Giants lost to the Pats by 3 points. It was an outstanding game that the Pats had to make a 4th quarter rally to win. For a minute, let's look back at that game and examine a couple of things that happened which will likely not be repeated.

1. The Pats started off slow with the thought that the Giants would probably not play their starters in the 2nd half. Obviously, this will not be the case in the Super Bowl.

2. The Giants returned a punt for a TD. It could happen again, but odds?

3. The Giants scored a late meaningless TD to cut the lead to 3. Although it very well could happen again, just remember that even with everything else that happened, the Pats were a solid 10 points better on the road than the Giants.

4. The Pats figured out how to beat Eli in the 2nd half of that game: blitz the hell out of him. When they started doing that in the 2nd half, they forced several bad throws and an interception. You can bet your last dollar Beliceck will take full advantage of this knowledge in the Super Bowl.

Those are the bigger thoughts that come to my mind that will likely be different in the Super Bowl. I'm going to sit on my official prediction for a good week and a half or so but I'm leaning towards the Pats right now.

Argument for Pats -13 NY Giants: The U. of Phoenix stadium in Glendale has one of the fastest surfaces known to man. Remember Florida beating Ohio St there? Yeah, same principal applies. With the Pats outstanding offense, they will be impossible to consistently stop during this game. It's definitely not out of the question for them to score 50 points against the Giants. As we saw in Weeks 1-10, when the conditions are perfect, the Pats game goes more vertical than horizontal. With this in mind, how can you possibly bet against at minimum the best offense of all time in perfect conditions?

Argument for NY Giants +13 Pats: As we've seen during the last month or so, Eli Manning and company have consistently exceeded expectations. I, myself, have recognized that I was completely wrong about this football team. They have pulled off an improbable run by not turning the ball over and doing just enough on defense to keep the other team out of the end zone. They didn't just play the Pats tough in Week 17, they had them on the ropes. Is it possible that they are now playing even better than their 3 point loss at home in Week 17? It certainly appears that way.

Personal recap: Once in a while you get to brag for being a gambling genius. I won both games last week by completing a last minute switch from the Pack to the Giants as the spread had went up to 8. In my mind, I didn't think the Giants would win, but I thought that the game could be close. In real money wagers, I'm 8-2 on the playoffs. On the official blog picks, I'm 6-3-1. By far, this is the best I've done on the NFL playoffs. To further brag, I've picked every Super Bowl right in the last 10-12 years with the exception of the Rams and Pats. Funny thing about that game, I see some similarities between that game and this Super Bowl.

1. The Rams went to New England and won by 7 late that year. My thinking by taking the Rams was that in perfect dome conditions, their powerful offense would kill the Pats.

2. Both teams heavily rely/relied on a strong offense.

3. The Pats, like the Rams, are approx. 13-14 point favorites.

4. The Giants, like the Pats that year, have absolutely nothing to lose.

Will I learn from my lesson of taking the Rams that year? Probably not, but stay tuned.