We here at the Bullpen Catcher have had a week to think about the NFL playoffs and the Wild Card Weekend opening lines. Sometimes, it's good to have a couple more days to think. When the season ended, it's easy to imagine either Dallas or New England upended as neither team finished the season exceptionally strong. Maybe it still is...but the more you think about it, the less likely it is that either one is going to be beat at home.
The Cowboys offense has looked anemic for several weeks and their defense is clearly beatable. Tony Romo has not yet performed at a high level in a "big" game. Because of this, some people are talking about a stunning first round defeat of the Cowboys by the Skins, Bucs, or Giants. Of the previous 3, only Washington realistically has any chance of going to Dallas and winning. The Bucs simply aren't good enough and the Giants have already proven they aren't on the same level as the Cowboys. With this knowledge, it's hard to imagine them losing first round and very hard to imagine Favre (who has never won in Dallas) bringing the Packers to an upset of the Cowboys. Also, the NFC 1 seed has proven to be very hard to beat in recent years. Analysis: Take the Cowboys to the Super Bowl.
The Patriots offense is clearly exceptional, but their defense? Their D looks old and tired. Sure, they have a lot of big names, but looking back at the 2nd half of the season....they are beatable. If the weather sucks (as it probably will), their offense has been neutralized....so maybe they are beatable. My take on them is that it doesn't matter who comes to Foxboro, the Pats can only lose if they beat themselves. The Colts are the only team that can match New England in a shootout...and we know Manning doesn't play well in cold weather. Analysis: The Pats are no fluke, take them all the way.
1st round predictions:
Seattle -3.5 Washington: I'm completely impressed by the Skins late season run, but the Seahawks are just too good at home.
Pittsburgh +2 Jacksonville: All the square bettors have chosen Jacksonville. Tell you anything? Pittsburgh should be able to air it out enough against Jacksonville's secondary to win this one.
Tampa Bay -2.5 NY Giants: Again, the square bettors are lined up to take the Bucs. The Giants lost key players due to injury last week in a "meaningless" game and everybody has over-hyped Manning once again. When in doubt, take the home team in the playoffs.
San Diego -9 Tennessee: The Titans are too beat up and the Chargers play way too well at home.
Notice: I took all home teams completely on purpose...you can't under-estimate this in the playoffs.
AFC Championship:
New England over Indianapolis
NFC Championship:
Dallas over Seattle
Super Bowl:
New England over Dallas
Yes, those are not very exciting predictions....but I'd price a 70% chance that I'm right on this one.
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