Week 4 - TPC Style

After last week's debacle (5-8-3), this is clearly a must win week for me. This is the point of the season where my irrational side takes over and I dive head first onto the panic button. Or at least that’s what I’m supposed to do, right? I’m supposed to say that I don’t have a chance to win this pick ‘em challenge if I don’t put together a good week, when in reality I’m only three games back with FOURTEEN weeks to go. Obviously it’s way too early to give up on the NFL season.

So why do we, sports fans, overreact so quickly? It’s like we all have a mild (in some instances extreme) case of Sports Bipolar disorder. One week we are clearing our calendars for Superbowl Sunday because our team is clearly the odds-on favorite to bring home a title. The next week we refuse to even refer to our team by name because that alone could very well induce vomiting. Our coach is always on the proverbial hot seat, a QB change is absolutely necessary, and our latest batch of draft picks are already declared busts. All this and we’re not even four games into the 2007 NFL season.

The Rams went from the preseason hype of being a legitimate contender to win their division to a 13 point underdog at home in three weeks. Oakland went from a preseason Power Ranking of dead last to almost beating a Broncos team on the road, to winning their first game against a team that put up 51 points the previous week (Cleveland), to being a 4.5 point underdog against the winless Miami Dolphins. Hell, I wrote off the Titans before the season even started and now I actually believe Vince Young can take us to the playoffs. And I hated the pick of Young in the 2006 draft. I wanted the Titans to take Matt Leinart, who went from potential franchise savior to being benched in favor of the 52 year old Kurt “Paper or Plastic” Warner. That shows you I’m just as crazy as the rest of you.

Now, let’s get to the picks before my meds wear off.

Oakland +4.5 @ Miami
I’m still baffled by this. Aside from the Falcons, the Dolphins are the worst team in football. They shouldn’t be giving points to anyone. Not even the lowly Oakland Raiders. The key will be for RB Lamont Jordan to establish the run game early to set up play action opportunities for new starter QB Daunte Culpepper. Look for Culpepper to revitalize this stagnant offense and turn WR Jerry Porter into a great fantasy play this week (start Porter – you can thank me later).

Houston -3 @ Atlanta
Houston is about to be one of those teams that is so underrated that they become very overrated. The Texans beat a very bad KC team, a decent Panthers squad, and played the defending champs as tough as you can. They’ll have their way with a reeling Falcons team and should beat Miami at home next week. That could put this team at 4-1 and firmly plant them in overrated territory. Their following three games (@ Jacksonville, home against the Titans, and @ San Diego) will determine if this team is for real.

Baltimore -4 @ Cleveland
If we’re going to talk about overrated teams, we can’t leave out the Baltimore Ravens. So far this year, The Ravens lost to Cincy while only scoring 20 points against that paper thin defense, and beat the Jets and Cardinals by an average of 3.5 points at home. This is not the same team that went 13-3 last year. Good news for them though, Cleveland sucks. Look for Willis McGahee to break 100 yards for the first time this year. Baltimore by double digits.

Chicago -2.5 @ Detroit
It looks like the Rex Grossman era in Chicago is officially over. Too bad for the Bears the move came a year too late. Grossman will join DE Michael Haynes, OT Marc Colombo, WR David Terrell, QB Cade McNown, RB Curtis Enis, and RB Rashaan Salaam, among others, as notable first round busts. The Bears have been very fortunate their later round picks have panned out, otherwise there’s no telling how bad this team could be right now. Well, as a matter of fact, they could be as bad as the Lions. The Lions are no strangers to draft busts but are finally trying to put together their first winning season since the 2000 season. They’re off to a good start but this game will put a wrench in their playoff (PLAYOFFS?!?!) plans. Enter: QB Brian Griese, this year’s version of Trent Dilfer. This move, and an easy win in Detroit this week, will vault the Bears back into NFC supremacy.

Green Bay -1 @ Minnesota
Green Bay is another team, like the Titans, that I’m not betting against anymore. Especially in a virtual pick em against a Vikes squad that has lost to Detroit and Kansas City in successive weeks. The Packers really need to establish some semblance of a running game, but they won’t be able to do so against a stout Vikes run D. Instead, QB Brett Favre should break Dan Marino’s TD record sometime before halftime and send the Vikings into their bye week with three consecutive losses. (Note: Minnesota will come out of their bye week with this schedule - @ Chi, @ Dallas, vs Philly, vs SD, and @ GB. This team could very well be 1-8 headed into week 11.)

St. Louis + 13 @ Dallas
The Rams are hurting, literally, in a bad way. They will be without Orlando Pace and Mark Setterstrom on the OL and their best player in RB Steven Jackson. It looks like Marc Bulger will try to play through his rib injury, but one big hit and you’ve got QB Gus Frerotte in the game…this is ungood. So why the hell am I picking the Rams and taking the points? Because I think this game has serious potential to be a letdown game for the Cowboys. They’re still high off their impressive win over Chicago and have already been anointed NFC favorites. It is very possible Dallas could come out flat in this game. Plus, St. Louis really has nothing to lose at this point. They are going to have to throw everything they have at this team just to stay in this game. In the end, the Rams will come up short. Dallas by 10.


NY Jets -3.5 @ Buffalo
I offer you this quote from espn.com, “With three starters in the secondary as well as LBs Keith Ellison and Paul Posluszny out of the lineup the Bills are playing with guys who were signed off the street a week ago, and the offense is without QB J.P. Losman.” Jets 21, Bills 6

Carolina -3 vs Tampa Bay
Can I pick a “Push” instead of picking an actual team? This game has Carolina 13, TB 10 written all over it. Ok, since I have to pick a winner, I’ll take the team with the most playmakers and the home field advantage. Carolina takes control of the NFC South in a close one.

San Francisco +1 vs Seattle
This should be an entertaining game and it's really a tough pick. San Francisco traditionally plays well against the Seahawks (what the hell is a Seahawk anyways??). In my mind, that gives them a slight advantage here...that and the fact that they're at home. Look for Alex Smith to continue his progression towards being a solid starting QB. In order to do this, he's going to have to look for TE Vernon Davis more. They may be forced to throw more with Frank Gore banged up (bruised hand). I'll take the Niners in what could be a fun, high-scoring game.

Pittsburgh -6 @ Arizona
Don't confuse the Cardinals with a Major League Baseball team. Just because they're treating their QBs like starting and relief pitchers doesn't mean they've found the secret to success. When have you ever seen a rotating QB situation work in a professional game? You're right...never. It may work effectively in the college game but a QB has to get in a rythym to be effective. This will only help the Steelers; a team that needs no help in dismantling a yet again dissapointing Cards team. Pitt wins big and Leinart and Warner will be running for their lives all day long.

San Diego -11.5 vs Kansas City
I'm not normally a fan of double-digit lines in the NFL. Parity says these lines are way too high. But the Chiefs are one of a few teams that might be double-digit underdogs every week. San Diego has to get back to 2006 form some time and this is the perfect game to do so. LDT (I refuse to call him LT) will finally have a breakout game this year and look for him to score 2 or 8 TDs. Not much else to say here but SD will beat the shit out of KC. Easy pick.

Denver +9.5 @ Indy
There's no denying this Colts team is very good and Denver has looked flat so far and is the luckiest 2-1 team in the league. With that being said, Indy no longer has the fire power to blow out teams every single week. That makes this line too high for my liking. I do have a lingering question that I'd like your opinion on: Would the Broncos be better off this year if they would've stuck with Jake Plummer? I think they would be a much better team b/c it's clear Jay Cutler is still going through growing pains. After all, he's learning on the job. But, that's today's NFL. Teams throw young QB's to the wolves before they're ready and totally ruin their confidence(See: Cutler, Leinart, JP Losman, Tavaris Jackson, Jason Campbell, Rex Grossman, Eli Manning, Chris Simms, and Alex Smith). Of course, there are exceptions like Vince Young and Ben Roethlisberger, but these exceptions are few and far between. And, in a few weeks, we'll be able to add JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn to that list. Indy wins by a TD.


Philly -2.5 @ NY Giants
I still think the Giants are a terrible team this year. McNabb still hasn't fully recovered from his knee surgery but that won't matter in this game since the Giants can't tackle anyways. Their defense has almost become comical and brutal to watch. I guess that's what you get when you're playing for a lame duck coach that the players hate with a passion. The result....a 1-3 start (0-2 at home) and millions of fans calling for Coughlin's job. It won't be long now. Philly wins easily.

New England -7 @ Cincy
The age old adage is to take the Monday Night home underdog. Not in this case. Not when the dog is playing the best team we've seen in a long time. Can we just crown New England champs now and get it over with? Of course, if they lose this game, we'll dismiss them as afterthoughts because, remember, we're all Bipolar when it comes to sports. New England wins 75-17.

The People's Champ