Seriously, the Cubs could go 1-5 or in their final 6 and get in the playoffs?? This could happen. Although Sunday was definitely NFL day, I found myself checking the MLB scoreboard b/c of the Cubs/Brewers division race. I even had to flip back to WGN in an 8-0 win against Pittsburgh to hear "Go Cubs Go" one (hopefully not) last time this season. 83 wins with 4 to play and yet they have a chance at winning the division and joining the completely mediocre NL playoffs. As a Cubs fan, I have the same "gut" feeling I had back in 1998 when the Cubs squeaked to a Wild Card berth and in 2003 when they stormed from 3rd place entering September into NL Central champs holding off Houston in the final weekend of the regular season. Looking back, it's hard to pick which one of those seasons was more special. Obviously, 2003 ended more tragically, but in both seasons the team gave fans a sense that "this could be the year". Even with an 83 (thus far) win season, the Cubs give me that feeling again this year. The NL sucks. It's AAAA baseball. If the Cubbies can just get in to the playoffs, anything can happen. Look at last year's Cardinals?! If, and only if, the Cubs can squeak into the playoffs this year, they are my pick to the World Series. If not, stay tuned. Almost all of the baseball pennant races are outstanding this year...until it's all settled, I'm not going to brag or make anymore predictions. Onto Week 4....!
- Miami -4.5 Oakland...I'm definitely not betting this game, but I'm not taking Oakland on the road with Culpepper? starting. Again, it's probably safe to bet against Oakland the rest of the year.
- Houston -3 Atlanta....Even w/o Andre Johnson, the Texans are a far better team than the Falcons. It does scare me that most of the action seems to be coming in on the Falcons, but like the Raiders, it's probably safe to bet against them the rest of the year.
- Baltimore -4 Cleveland....I'm getting nervous now that I've picked the first 3 games with the favorite covering, but maybe this week more of the favorites do cover. The Ravens D should shut down Cleveland...so even if Boller does start, the Ravens D alone should be able to handle the Browns by 4+. Definitely not wagering on this game.
- Chicago -2.5 Detroit....I was leaning towards picking Detroit until....Grossman has been benched!!! For those that read my posting last week, again, I look like a genius. The Bears D, even with the injuries it has sustained, should be good enough to pick off Kitna 3+ times and probably score at least once. Bears win an ugly game by 3 or 4.
- Green Bay -1 Minnesota....The only thing that makes me hesitate here is that Favre in a dome, especially Minnesota, has a history of being AWFUL. The Packers D should completely shut down the Vikes offense, so hopefully even if Favre is off once again, they will be good enough to win an ugly game.
- Dallas -13 St. Louis....There is absolutely nothing here to make me hesitate taking a double digit favorite. Dallas has looked outstanding so far and the Rams have looked awful. Not only have the Rams looked awful, they have several HUGE problems: they can't play defense, Pace is out for the year, they can't play defense, Jackson is out this week, Bulger cracked 2 ribs last week and hurt his knee, and did I mention the Rams still can't play defense? Take the Boys on any spread up to 20. Yes, I already have action on this game.
- Buffalo +3.5 NY Jets...Exhale. I hate betting favorites, and finally, I have one easy case for not taking a favorite. Look, I know the Bills are 0-3, but considering they've played the Broncos, Steelers, and Pats...are we surprised??? The Bills are not good by any means, but if they would've pulled out the win against the Broncos (as they should have) this game would've been a pick. The J-E-T-S are nothing special this year and this game should be close. Again, I already have action on this game.
- Tampa Bay +3 Carolina....Possibly, the hardest team of the last 5 years to bet for/against is Carolina. It's very hard to decide which team is going to show up. 98% of the time (and again this week) I refrain from betting on a game Carolina plays. The Panthers normally play very well against Tampa, but surprisingly, Tampa looks like they could be a sleeper this year. In, again surprising, the mediocre NFC South the Bucs look like the could take the division crown. If the defense plays the way it has so far this year, Tampa should win this game outright.
- San Fran +1 Seattle....Yes, I hate to do it because I really don't like San Fran, but the 49ers were 2-0 last year against Seattle and the teams seem to be heading in opposite directions since Seattle's last Super Bowl run. The "square" bettors are all over Seattle this week. Tell you anything?
- Arizona +6 Pittsburgh....Pittsburgh has looked unbelievable thus far and I'm not surprised one bit. The Steelers are back! Up to this point, they look like they could be the biggest competition for New England. With all that said, I like the way the Cardinals (1-2) have played this far. Yes, they've lost 2 out of 3, but this team has played all of their competition tough. The 49ers (road), Seahawks, and Ravens (road) all could be playoff teams. Going 1-2, all in close games, is actually not bad. I think Whisenhunt knows his personnel very well, and could prove to be a pretty good NFL coach. Again, look for the Cards to go down to the wire against a tough opponent. Side note: This game has the most "square" bettor action this week. Take the home dog.
- San Diego -11.5 Kansas City....The Chargers, on paper, are on a completely different level than the Chiefs. Maybe this is the week that San Diego gets it's swagger back? This team has a ton of talent but a horrible head coach. If somehow Wade Philips could get involved, this would be the greatest clusterf*ck of horrible coaches in NFL history.
- Indy -9.5 Denver....Be careful of this game. Denver getting this many points is tough to bet against. My thinking is that even if Indy scores 23-28 or so, Cutler may lead his team to less than 14. I'm still unsold on Jay Cutler. So far, VY is the best QB of that draft....until Leinart or Cutler prove otherwise, I'm not changing that opinion EVER.
- Philly -2.5 NY Giants....I still don't have Philly figured out but I do have the Giants defense figured out. They can't tackle!!! If Philly can score on the Lions D, they can score on the Giants. Philly, on the road, takes it by a TD. Over 47.5 looks good too.
- New England -7 Cincy....I'm breaking a cardinal sin here....don't bet against a Monday Night home dog. One huge problem with that rule....the Bengals D gave up 51 to Cleveland! I'm no genius, but as long as the total is under 60, I'd take the over. The Pats will likely continue their dominance against a shaky Bengals defense. When is it too early to start talking about the Pats going 16-0?
Wow! I seriously took a lot of favorites this week. Looking in the mirror, I'm questioning whether I'm a "square" bettor. Unlike my competition, I'm going with my first instinct here. (Backhanded cheap shot). Good luck this week and GO CUBS GO!
Rich
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