Week 1 Picks - TPC Style

I agree Rich, we should alternate each week on who picks first. So next week you'll see my post first and then Rich's drunken retort. Let's get to this...on to the picks (picks in red).

(I picked this game on Thursday morning)
Indianapolis – 5 vs New Orleans
This Saints team is perfect for the mediocre NFC but they will find things a bit tougher on the other side of the fence. There is serious concern here for an Indy letdown but I don’t think their crowd will allow it. Indy by a touchdown.

Kansas City +3 @ Houston
A putrid game that will be determined by running the ball, successful play-action passes, and 2 or 3 big defensive stops. Since I don’t think either team is capable of pulling off all three, I’ll take the points. Also, I'm not betting on Houston, especially laying 3 points, at any point this season until we see if that offensive line can keep Matt Schaub upright.Ugh…..

Buffalo +3.5 vs Denver
It’s not a reach to say this game could determine how this entire season will go for the Broncos. Is Jay Cutler ready to step up and lead this team or does need a year or two to put it all together? I’m betting on the latter and I like Buffalo to win this game in a close one.

Pittsburgh -4.5 @ Cleveland
I can see it now...Willie Parker 30 rushes for 140 yards and 2 tds. The Quinn watch will officially begin after the Brown's first series, undoubtedly a three-and-out. While we're at it, let's officially start the Romeo Crennel watch now. I'll set the over/under for his firing at week 10....put me down for the under. Pittsburgh will beat up on a beat up Browns squad.

Jacksonville -6.5 vs Tennessee
As much as it hurts me to say this, the Titans are going to be bad...very bad this year. Last year they won a bunch of fluky type games because of Vince Young and his mad scrambles. Opposing teams will now gameplan specifically to keep VY contained in the pocket where he's good for a 50% completion percentage and 20+ picks this year. At least we'll have The Madden Curse to blame for his inevitable sophomore slump. I'm a believer in David Garrard and I think Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford will step up their games this year. Jags in a good old fashion ass whoopin.

Carolina pick @ St. Louis
I am not one of the many St. Louis bandwagoneers (is that a word?). I agree that the division is wide open, but they still have that glaring weakness up the middle and expecting a rookie, who’s playing out of position, to change that is just wishful thinking. Carolina will run, run, run and win this game by less than a td.

Philadelphia -3 @ Green Bay
This is the easiest pick of the week. This line is completely ridiculous. I do think McNabb will struggle this year - haven't we learned by now that it takes two years to come back from an ACL tear? Philly will be average this year but they not in this game. Philly by two tds.

Minnesota -3 vs Atlanta
Not a game you could pay me to watch….or bet on for that matter. Two terrible teams headed in the same direction. I’ll take the home team and lay the points as long as Joey Harrington is involved.

Washington -3 vs Miami
I’m not as down on Washington as Rich seems to be. Campbell will come into his own this year and this Redskins team will surprise some folks this year. I think they will compete with Dallas for the division and beat Miami in a close game.

NY Jets +6 @ New England
The Pats are banged up, the Jets are hungry, Thomas Jones is playing in this game. New England by a field goal but they won't cover.

Seattle -5.5 vs Tampa Bay
Seattle at home against one of the worst teams in the league and I'm only giving 5.5 points?? Gotta love week 1 where the odds makers have no clue how to set the lines. Seattle in an ugly blow out.

Chicago +6 @ San Diego
This is a tough one. San Diego will win this game but this is too many points to give that Bears D. They're finally healthy for the most part and I think they'll give Phillip Rivers fits all day. I am going to warn everyone this....this could be the last time I take the Bears all year if Grossman lays an egg in this game. I'm just saying.

Detroit +2.5 @ Oakland
I'm not sure what John Kitna is smoking but this is not a 10 win team. But, Oakland is a 13 loss team and this game will set the tone for a long year. Oakland's defense will keep this game close but their offense will eventually lose it for them. Detroit by a td. And, is it just me or am I the only person that thinks Calvin Johnson will struggle this year, just like any other rookie? I don't care if he is a freak of nature. I see 40 catches, 550 yards, and 3 tds in his near future. I can't wait to look back on this prediction!

Dallas -6 vs NY Giants
This is a lot of points to give in this game but let me be the first to say, this is Eli's final year as the New York Giants' starting QB. At least the Giants will be picking in the top 10 so they'll have a shot at their next QB of the future. Dallas by double digits thanks to 3 Eli picks. Man, it's gotta be tough being the younger, less talented Manning. Now I know how my little brother feels.

Cincinnati -2.5 vs Baltimore
The "experts" seem to have an unhealthy crush on Baltimore and are all overlooking this Bengals team. Steve McNair is in decline, Willis McGahee is average, and they have no receiving corp. What's there to like except for the defense, which, I'll give you, is great?? The Cincinnattica Bengals are my sleeper team this year to push the Pats/Colts/Bolts for the AFC crown. Carson Palmer for MVP??? It could happen. Bengals in a tough, close one.

Arizona +3 @ San Francisco
What's the golden rule of betting on the NFL....take the Monday Night home underdog? Not in this game. THIS....I repeat THIS will be the year Arizona turns the corner and becomes a good team. They've addressed the offensive line, their defense will be better than advertised, and Leinart will take the next step to being a complete QB (kind of the anti-VY). Couple that with the five knuckle shuffle everyone is doing for the 49ers this year and this is a can't miss game. Cards by a td.

So there you have it; my picks that are sure to go wrong. Here's a tip for you gamblers out there...take the opposite of what you see above and you can't go wrong.

And just to remind Rich - it's 1-0 good guys after Thursday's game.....

The People's Champ