Here are the winning picks for week 3.
Indy -6 @ Houston
2-0 Indy at 2-0 Houston seems like an intriguing matchup but this is the week the Texans come plummeting back to earth. They played a terrible KC team in week 1 and a flat Carolina squad that will be better than that loss. Combine that with the fact that Houston’s best playmaker, Andre Johnson is out this game and you’ve got all the makings of a blowout. Side note: Is it just me or does Indy look like they could win every game this season…all by 6 points or less? I can't wait for New England @ Indianapolis in week 9. Indy beats Houston easily.
San Diego -5 @ Green Bay
San Diego’s early season offensive struggles remind me of a new relationship. The first few weeks of a new relationship (training camp) are always great because you haven’t had time to pick apart the other persons flaws. You’re just getting to know each other and everything is bliss. After the ‘newness’ wears off (Weeks 1 and 2) you now have to build chemistry and see if you can live with any flaws you may have discovered. That’s what this team is doing with its coach…still building that chemistry it takes for any relationship to be successful. I can definitely live with this team’s flaws because they are over exaggerated. The Bolts faced two of the leagues toughest defenses the past two weeks (Bears and Pats). Chargers beat an over-achieving Packers team by double-digits.
Kansas City +3 vs Minnesota
Can someone please tell me why the Chiefs have thrown the ball 61 times and have only run it 45 times?? What are they saving LJ for…the playoffs? The Chiefs need to get back to basics and run, run, run. It won’t be easy against the sixth ranked rushing D. The Vikings have made dramatic improvements on the defensive side of the ball but are still vulnerable to the pass so we could see a lot of Tony Gonzalez this week. Given the home field advantage, the Chiefs will keep this game close. A loud, raucous home crowd will also help give a new QB (Kelly Holcomb) fits. Holcomb isn’t a youngster but he’s new to this system. This game will be a close, defensive battle. Minnesota by a late FG for the push but I wouldn’t be shocked if KC wins outright.
Detroit +6 @ Philly
I don’t think I need to keep hammering home the point that it takes two years to recover from an ACL tear. I’m pretty sure everyone realizes that by now. So why is everyone so shocked the Eagles are 0-2 and have looked terrible in the process? McNabb is clearly the glue that keeps this team together but he is physically unable to get the job done. The key for the Eagles in this game is to effectively run the ball to set up play action, but that will be tough with a banged up (big surprise) Brian Westbrook. If Westbrook misses this game, he’s officially listed as probable, things could get very ugly. And you’ll see a mad scramble for Correll Buckhalter in your fantasy league, if you haven’t already (grab him quick if you have an open roster spot!). I’m not sold on this Lions team either but look for Jon Kitna to exploit a banged up Philly secondary this week. Detroit wins this one outright and the boo birds make for an uncomfortable game for McNabb.
New England -16.5 vs Buffalo
What did last week teach us when 12 of 16 underdogs covered? It taught me that 16 points is WAY too many points to give any team. So what do I do? I take the favorite, naturally. The Patriots are the one team I feel comfortable with in this situation. They are firing on all cylinders and Sunday will be no different. Hell, their defense might outscore the Bills offense. Pats in a laugher….I would give 20 points in this game.
NYJ -3 vs Miami
While writing this column, I just heard that Zach Thomas is officially out for this game. That’s all I need for this game. Miami has looked lost on both sides of the ball and this injury just kills them. Not that I like the Jets that much either. They haven’t shown that much this year but they do look like the team every one expected them to be last year…dreadful. But, nothing cures the winless blues like a visiting Dolphins team. Jets by 3 for the push with a possible 0-0 tie. At least I think that’s what will happen as I won’t be watching this game.
San Francisco +9.5 @ Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has beat up on some bad teams thus far, making this line way too high. Pittsburgh should come out on top in this slugfest but the 49ers are more than willing to fight back. Give me the points and a combined 65 runs by both teams and 15 tackles by your Defensive Rookie of the Year – Patrick Willis.
Arizona +9 @ Baltimore
See: Above. McNair's back but Ogden's out. Ravens win by a touchdown but the Cards cover.
St. Louis +3.5 @ Tampa Bay
We can blame the Bucs for adding to the confusion this year in the NFL. How did they beat that New Orleans team so badly? A couple of big plays from Jeff Garcia helped the cause and there is definite concern that he could do the same against an 0-2 Rams team. Also, Tampa didn’t allow a single turnover. That’s a recipe for a win no matter the talent on the team. That won’t happen again this week. Tampa’s ‘bend but don’t break’ Tampa 2 defense will bend just a little too much. Look for a lot of Bulger to Jackson underneath and Bulger to McMichael over the middle. Another key will be the 6-5 Drew Bennett matching up against the shorter Bucs cornerbacks in the red zone…look for Bennett to catch his first touchdown pass. Rams will right the ship this week and win a close, dink and dunk game.
Denver -3 vs Jacksonville
The Broncos have barely squeaked out two wins thus far and are officially on upset alert this week. The one thing they have going for them is the fact that they’re playing the Jags this week. The Jaguars could barely beat a very bad Falcons team last week and lost to an over-achieving Titans team in week 1, both games at home. A trip to Denver is not what the doctor ordered for this team. They will get punched in the mouth early and will never recover. Broncos in a close one (and another potential push) and the Jack Del Rio watch begins.
Cincinnati +3.5 @ Seattle
I love this line. Buyer Beware: I said the same thing about Cincinnati/Cleveland. The Bengals gave up 51 of the unluckiest points in the history of the NFL to a Browns team that was pissing gold last week. That won’t happen this week. The Bengals will turn this into a shootout and Seattle will have not choice but to oblige. Cincinnati by a td in a high scoring win.
Oakland -3 vs Cleveland
Anyone that saw Cleveland play last week should agree with this pick. Never in my young sports life have I seen such a bad team score so many points. Here are some quotes from last week’s Cleveland/Cincinnati commentators. “What a bad throw by Derek Anderson…he really got lucky with that one. Oh man the Browns got away with one there….(insert name here) dropped a surefire interception (this happened 2 or 3 times). A complete lapse in concentration by the Bengals’ D led to that Anderson touchdown.” The Browns had the right mix of luck and caught a Cincy D in hibernation. This won’t happen against a very good Oakland D. Oakland covers in a close, ugly game.
Carolina +3.5 vs Atlanta
Co-Lock of the Week Warning! The Panthers are another underachieving team that needs a big win in a bad way. Cue Joey Harrington and his fractured psyche. Just what the Panthers’ D ordered…a self-conscience QB who’s looking over his shoulder and is in danger of being decapitate with each 10 second, 9 step drop. Carolina will begin their ascent to the top of the NFC South, a division that will crown an 8-8 team its champion, with a home-field massacre of the Falcons.
Washington -3.5 vs NYG
Co-Lock of the Week Warning! Have I mentioned that Washington is my sleeper team of the year? Yeah, several times, I know. It just feels good to be right sometimes. It makes me feel even better when the Giants come to town. This will be the week where QB Jason Campbell solidifies himself as a potential superstar and the exact point in the season where the Giants quit on their coach. Tom Coughlin joins Jack Del Rio, Romeo Crennel, and Dick Jauron on the early season coaching hot seat. Redskins scalp the G-Men.
Chicago -3 vs Dallas
With the Cowboys’ secondary banged up, their defense won’t be as aggressive as they’d like to be. This will decide the game as a focused and unhurried Rex Grossman will pick them apart. I can’t believe I just wrote that, but it’s true. Grossman traditionally struggles when pressured and Dallas just doesn’t have the personnel to effectively blitz him in this game, resulting in a breakout game for Bernard Berrian. Chicago in a surprisingly easy win.
Tennessee +4 @ New Orleans
I couldn’t be more excited this week! My boys are on Monday night against a tough, but down Saints team and we all know VY loves the spotlight. I am ashamed to say I have picked against the Titans both weeks so far and even said they would be “bad, very bad” this year. Man, when I’m wrong, I’m wrong. There’s just something about Vince Young that this team responds to. It’s not the fact that he throws like Johnny Damon or that he runs like he’s moving in slow motion. He just has that “It” factor that few professional athletes have. This game will be billed as VY vs Reggie Bush but it will be the Titans’ Run D vs Bush and Deuce McAllister that will decide the winner. If New Orleans is going to turn this season around, they’ve got to run the ball more effectively and more often. Much like the Chiefs, the play-calling for the Saints has raised a few eyebrows. I know they had to throw more last week b/c they got down early, but they can’t be so quick to abandon the run. I’m scared of a desperate Saints team at home but the Titans will keep this game close. I’ll take the points in this one.
TPC
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