Week 4 - TPC Style

After last week's debacle (5-8-3), this is clearly a must win week for me. This is the point of the season where my irrational side takes over and I dive head first onto the panic button. Or at least that’s what I’m supposed to do, right? I’m supposed to say that I don’t have a chance to win this pick ‘em challenge if I don’t put together a good week, when in reality I’m only three games back with FOURTEEN weeks to go. Obviously it’s way too early to give up on the NFL season.

So why do we, sports fans, overreact so quickly? It’s like we all have a mild (in some instances extreme) case of Sports Bipolar disorder. One week we are clearing our calendars for Superbowl Sunday because our team is clearly the odds-on favorite to bring home a title. The next week we refuse to even refer to our team by name because that alone could very well induce vomiting. Our coach is always on the proverbial hot seat, a QB change is absolutely necessary, and our latest batch of draft picks are already declared busts. All this and we’re not even four games into the 2007 NFL season.

The Rams went from the preseason hype of being a legitimate contender to win their division to a 13 point underdog at home in three weeks. Oakland went from a preseason Power Ranking of dead last to almost beating a Broncos team on the road, to winning their first game against a team that put up 51 points the previous week (Cleveland), to being a 4.5 point underdog against the winless Miami Dolphins. Hell, I wrote off the Titans before the season even started and now I actually believe Vince Young can take us to the playoffs. And I hated the pick of Young in the 2006 draft. I wanted the Titans to take Matt Leinart, who went from potential franchise savior to being benched in favor of the 52 year old Kurt “Paper or Plastic” Warner. That shows you I’m just as crazy as the rest of you.

Now, let’s get to the picks before my meds wear off.

Oakland +4.5 @ Miami
I’m still baffled by this. Aside from the Falcons, the Dolphins are the worst team in football. They shouldn’t be giving points to anyone. Not even the lowly Oakland Raiders. The key will be for RB Lamont Jordan to establish the run game early to set up play action opportunities for new starter QB Daunte Culpepper. Look for Culpepper to revitalize this stagnant offense and turn WR Jerry Porter into a great fantasy play this week (start Porter – you can thank me later).

Houston -3 @ Atlanta
Houston is about to be one of those teams that is so underrated that they become very overrated. The Texans beat a very bad KC team, a decent Panthers squad, and played the defending champs as tough as you can. They’ll have their way with a reeling Falcons team and should beat Miami at home next week. That could put this team at 4-1 and firmly plant them in overrated territory. Their following three games (@ Jacksonville, home against the Titans, and @ San Diego) will determine if this team is for real.

Baltimore -4 @ Cleveland
If we’re going to talk about overrated teams, we can’t leave out the Baltimore Ravens. So far this year, The Ravens lost to Cincy while only scoring 20 points against that paper thin defense, and beat the Jets and Cardinals by an average of 3.5 points at home. This is not the same team that went 13-3 last year. Good news for them though, Cleveland sucks. Look for Willis McGahee to break 100 yards for the first time this year. Baltimore by double digits.

Chicago -2.5 @ Detroit
It looks like the Rex Grossman era in Chicago is officially over. Too bad for the Bears the move came a year too late. Grossman will join DE Michael Haynes, OT Marc Colombo, WR David Terrell, QB Cade McNown, RB Curtis Enis, and RB Rashaan Salaam, among others, as notable first round busts. The Bears have been very fortunate their later round picks have panned out, otherwise there’s no telling how bad this team could be right now. Well, as a matter of fact, they could be as bad as the Lions. The Lions are no strangers to draft busts but are finally trying to put together their first winning season since the 2000 season. They’re off to a good start but this game will put a wrench in their playoff (PLAYOFFS?!?!) plans. Enter: QB Brian Griese, this year’s version of Trent Dilfer. This move, and an easy win in Detroit this week, will vault the Bears back into NFC supremacy.

Green Bay -1 @ Minnesota
Green Bay is another team, like the Titans, that I’m not betting against anymore. Especially in a virtual pick em against a Vikes squad that has lost to Detroit and Kansas City in successive weeks. The Packers really need to establish some semblance of a running game, but they won’t be able to do so against a stout Vikes run D. Instead, QB Brett Favre should break Dan Marino’s TD record sometime before halftime and send the Vikings into their bye week with three consecutive losses. (Note: Minnesota will come out of their bye week with this schedule - @ Chi, @ Dallas, vs Philly, vs SD, and @ GB. This team could very well be 1-8 headed into week 11.)

St. Louis + 13 @ Dallas
The Rams are hurting, literally, in a bad way. They will be without Orlando Pace and Mark Setterstrom on the OL and their best player in RB Steven Jackson. It looks like Marc Bulger will try to play through his rib injury, but one big hit and you’ve got QB Gus Frerotte in the game…this is ungood. So why the hell am I picking the Rams and taking the points? Because I think this game has serious potential to be a letdown game for the Cowboys. They’re still high off their impressive win over Chicago and have already been anointed NFC favorites. It is very possible Dallas could come out flat in this game. Plus, St. Louis really has nothing to lose at this point. They are going to have to throw everything they have at this team just to stay in this game. In the end, the Rams will come up short. Dallas by 10.


NY Jets -3.5 @ Buffalo
I offer you this quote from espn.com, “With three starters in the secondary as well as LBs Keith Ellison and Paul Posluszny out of the lineup the Bills are playing with guys who were signed off the street a week ago, and the offense is without QB J.P. Losman.” Jets 21, Bills 6

Carolina -3 vs Tampa Bay
Can I pick a “Push” instead of picking an actual team? This game has Carolina 13, TB 10 written all over it. Ok, since I have to pick a winner, I’ll take the team with the most playmakers and the home field advantage. Carolina takes control of the NFC South in a close one.

San Francisco +1 vs Seattle
This should be an entertaining game and it's really a tough pick. San Francisco traditionally plays well against the Seahawks (what the hell is a Seahawk anyways??). In my mind, that gives them a slight advantage here...that and the fact that they're at home. Look for Alex Smith to continue his progression towards being a solid starting QB. In order to do this, he's going to have to look for TE Vernon Davis more. They may be forced to throw more with Frank Gore banged up (bruised hand). I'll take the Niners in what could be a fun, high-scoring game.

Pittsburgh -6 @ Arizona
Don't confuse the Cardinals with a Major League Baseball team. Just because they're treating their QBs like starting and relief pitchers doesn't mean they've found the secret to success. When have you ever seen a rotating QB situation work in a professional game? You're right...never. It may work effectively in the college game but a QB has to get in a rythym to be effective. This will only help the Steelers; a team that needs no help in dismantling a yet again dissapointing Cards team. Pitt wins big and Leinart and Warner will be running for their lives all day long.

San Diego -11.5 vs Kansas City
I'm not normally a fan of double-digit lines in the NFL. Parity says these lines are way too high. But the Chiefs are one of a few teams that might be double-digit underdogs every week. San Diego has to get back to 2006 form some time and this is the perfect game to do so. LDT (I refuse to call him LT) will finally have a breakout game this year and look for him to score 2 or 8 TDs. Not much else to say here but SD will beat the shit out of KC. Easy pick.

Denver +9.5 @ Indy
There's no denying this Colts team is very good and Denver has looked flat so far and is the luckiest 2-1 team in the league. With that being said, Indy no longer has the fire power to blow out teams every single week. That makes this line too high for my liking. I do have a lingering question that I'd like your opinion on: Would the Broncos be better off this year if they would've stuck with Jake Plummer? I think they would be a much better team b/c it's clear Jay Cutler is still going through growing pains. After all, he's learning on the job. But, that's today's NFL. Teams throw young QB's to the wolves before they're ready and totally ruin their confidence(See: Cutler, Leinart, JP Losman, Tavaris Jackson, Jason Campbell, Rex Grossman, Eli Manning, Chris Simms, and Alex Smith). Of course, there are exceptions like Vince Young and Ben Roethlisberger, but these exceptions are few and far between. And, in a few weeks, we'll be able to add JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn to that list. Indy wins by a TD.


Philly -2.5 @ NY Giants
I still think the Giants are a terrible team this year. McNabb still hasn't fully recovered from his knee surgery but that won't matter in this game since the Giants can't tackle anyways. Their defense has almost become comical and brutal to watch. I guess that's what you get when you're playing for a lame duck coach that the players hate with a passion. The result....a 1-3 start (0-2 at home) and millions of fans calling for Coughlin's job. It won't be long now. Philly wins easily.

New England -7 @ Cincy
The age old adage is to take the Monday Night home underdog. Not in this case. Not when the dog is playing the best team we've seen in a long time. Can we just crown New England champs now and get it over with? Of course, if they lose this game, we'll dismiss them as afterthoughts because, remember, we're all Bipolar when it comes to sports. New England wins 75-17.

The People's Champ

I RULE (Rich's Pick - Week 4)

10-3-3 in Week 3. Yes, thank you, I'm a complete genius. Remember I said this when I go 1-15 ATS this week. Seriously though, I was in the zone. Even the pushes could've been wins if you got the spread at the correct time (Ex: Houston +6 was the week's low). Unfortunately I only made 3 wagers for the week (but at a good amt of money): Detroit +6 Philly (L), Dallas +3 Chicago (W), Tennessee +4 N'ahhhlens (W). Overall this year, I can't complain. 8-6 on the year in real wagers, and now that I have temporary confidence, this week could be very good as well. But first, I have to tackle baseball for a second.

Seriously, the Cubs could go 1-5 or in their final 6 and get in the playoffs?? This could happen. Although Sunday was definitely NFL day, I found myself checking the MLB scoreboard b/c of the Cubs/Brewers division race. I even had to flip back to WGN in an 8-0 win against Pittsburgh to hear "Go Cubs Go" one (hopefully not) last time this season. 83 wins with 4 to play and yet they have a chance at winning the division and joining the completely mediocre NL playoffs. As a Cubs fan, I have the same "gut" feeling I had back in 1998 when the Cubs squeaked to a Wild Card berth and in 2003 when they stormed from 3rd place entering September into NL Central champs holding off Houston in the final weekend of the regular season. Looking back, it's hard to pick which one of those seasons was more special. Obviously, 2003 ended more tragically, but in both seasons the team gave fans a sense that "this could be the year". Even with an 83 (thus far) win season, the Cubs give me that feeling again this year. The NL sucks. It's AAAA baseball. If the Cubbies can just get in to the playoffs, anything can happen. Look at last year's Cardinals?! If, and only if, the Cubs can squeak into the playoffs this year, they are my pick to the World Series. If not, stay tuned. Almost all of the baseball pennant races are outstanding this year...until it's all settled, I'm not going to brag or make anymore predictions. Onto Week 4....!

• Miami -4.5 Oakland...I'm definitely not betting this game, but I'm not taking Oakland on the road with Culpepper? starting. Again, it's probably safe to bet against Oakland the rest of the year.
• Houston -3 Atlanta....Even w/o Andre Johnson, the Texans are a far better team than the Falcons. It does scare me that most of the action seems to be coming in on the Falcons, but like the Raiders, it's probably safe to bet against them the rest of the year.
• Baltimore -4 Cleveland....I'm getting nervous now that I've picked the first 3 games with the favorite covering, but maybe this week more of the favorites do cover. The Ravens D should shut down Cleveland...so even if Boller does start, the Ravens D alone should be able to handle the Browns by 4+. Definitely not wagering on this game.
• Chicago -2.5 Detroit....I was leaning towards picking Detroit until....Grossman has been benched!!! For those that read my posting last week, again, I look like a genius. The Bears D, even with the injuries it has sustained, should be good enough to pick off Kitna 3+ times and probably score at least once. Bears win an ugly game by 3 or 4.
• Green Bay -1 Minnesota....The only thing that makes me hesitate here is that Favre in a dome, especially Minnesota, has a history of being AWFUL. The Packers D should completely shut down the Vikes offense, so hopefully even if Favre is off once again, they will be good enough to win an ugly game.
• Dallas -13 St. Louis....There is absolutely nothing here to make me hesitate taking a double digit favorite. Dallas has looked outstanding so far and the Rams have looked awful. Not only have the Rams looked awful, they have several HUGE problems: they can't play defense, Pace is out for the year, they can't play defense, Jackson is out this week, Bulger cracked 2 ribs last week and hurt his knee, and did I mention the Rams still can't play defense? Take the Boys on any spread up to 20. Yes, I already have action on this game.
• Buffalo +3.5 NY Jets...Exhale. I hate betting favorites, and finally, I have one easy case for not taking a favorite. Look, I know the Bills are 0-3, but considering they've played the Broncos, Steelers, and Pats...are we surprised??? The Bills are not good by any means, but if they would've pulled out the win against the Broncos (as they should have) this game would've been a pick. The J-E-T-S are nothing special this year and this game should be close. Again, I already have action on this game.
• Tampa Bay +3 Carolina....Possibly, the hardest team of the last 5 years to bet for/against is Carolina. It's very hard to decide which team is going to show up. 98% of the time (and again this week) I refrain from betting on a game Carolina plays. The Panthers normally play very well against Tampa, but surprisingly, Tampa looks like they could be a sleeper this year. In, again surprising, the mediocre NFC South the Bucs look like the could take the division crown. If the defense plays the way it has so far this year, Tampa should win this game outright.
• San Fran +1 Seattle....Yes, I hate to do it because I really don't like San Fran, but the 49ers were 2-0 last year against Seattle and the teams seem to be heading in opposite directions since Seattle's last Super Bowl run. The "square" bettors are all over Seattle this week. Tell you anything?
• Arizona +6 Pittsburgh....Pittsburgh has looked unbelievable thus far and I'm not surprised one bit. The Steelers are back! Up to this point, they look like they could be the biggest competition for New England. With all that said, I like the way the Cardinals (1-2) have played this far. Yes, they've lost 2 out of 3, but this team has played all of their competition tough. The 49ers (road), Seahawks, and Ravens (road) all could be playoff teams. Going 1-2, all in close games, is actually not bad. I think Whisenhunt knows his personnel very well, and could prove to be a pretty good NFL coach. Again, look for the Cards to go down to the wire against a tough opponent. Side note: This game has the most "square" bettor action this week. Take the home dog.
• San Diego -11.5 Kansas City....The Chargers, on paper, are on a completely different level than the Chiefs. Maybe this is the week that San Diego gets it's swagger back? This team has a ton of talent but a horrible head coach. If somehow Wade Philips could get involved, this would be the greatest clusterf*ck of horrible coaches in NFL history.
• Indy -9.5 Denver....Be careful of this game. Denver getting this many points is tough to bet against. My thinking is that even if Indy scores 23-28 or so, Cutler may lead his team to less than 14. I'm still unsold on Jay Cutler. So far, VY is the best QB of that draft....until Leinart or Cutler prove otherwise, I'm not changing that opinion EVER.
• Philly -2.5 NY Giants....I still don't have Philly figured out but I do have the Giants defense figured out. They can't tackle!!! If Philly can score on the Lions D, they can score on the Giants. Philly, on the road, takes it by a TD. Over 47.5 looks good too.
• New England -7 Cincy....I'm breaking a cardinal sin here....don't bet against a Monday Night home dog. One huge problem with that rule....the Bengals D gave up 51 to Cleveland! I'm no genius, but as long as the total is under 60, I'd take the over. The Pats will likely continue their dominance against a shaky Bengals defense. When is it too early to start talking about the Pats going 16-0?

Wow! I seriously took a lot of favorites this week. Looking in the mirror, I'm questioning whether I'm a "square" bettor. Unlike my competition, I'm going with my first instinct here. (Backhanded cheap shot). Good luck this week and GO CUBS GO!

Rich

Week 3 Recap

I actually wrote this last week, "With the Cowboys’ secondary banged up, their defense won’t be as aggressive as they’d like to be. This will decide the game as a focused and unhurried Rex Grossman will pick them apart. I can’t believe I just wrote that, but it’s true. Grossman traditionally struggles when pressured and Dallas just doesn’t have the personnel to effectively blitz him in this game, resulting in a breakout game for Bernard Berrian. Chicago in a surprisingly easy win." Definitely not one of my finer moments thanks to one of Rex Grossman's worst moments. I was never a Grossman fan but I thought this game was the perfect storm for him....banged up opponent, a renewed sense of urgency, and his teammates seemed to be rallying around him. Then Grossman lays an egg only surpassed by the stinker Drew Brees laid in the Superdome. The grounds crew is still cleaning up that mess. The Chicago game was only one of many really, really bad picks this week resulting in a Sports Guy-like 5-8-3 record on my part. Rich, interestingly enough, in Sports Gal fashion, dropped a 10-3-3 week on me and took the overall lead, 25-17-6 to 22-20-6.

After what will hopefully be my worst week, what did we learn? Here are some random thoughts on Week 3.

• Underdogs had a winning record (8-5-3) again this week. The old gambling rule of thumb was, if you're torn between two close teams, take the home team. The new rule of thumb will be, when in doubt, take the points.
• The Rams, Bills, Dolphins, and Falcons suck....really bad. I'm betting against them every week.
• Scott Linehan might have been a bad hire by Rams brass. When is it too early to cut the cord and start over? How about week 6? Too early?
• Andre Woodson will look great in a Dolphins uni next year and you can pencil in Brian Brohm as Atlanta's starting QB next year.
• I'm never betting against Vince Young ever again. I did it in the 2006 Rose Bowl, all last year, and the first two games this year. This guy is a winner, plain and simple (even if he does throw like Johnny Damon).
• Brian Griese will be this year's Trent Dilfer and lead the Bears back to the Superbowl.
• Any team that kicks to Devin Hester should be trampled by a band of disgruntled sumo wrestlers.
• Matt Leinart is the new Todd Marinovich.
• The Chicago Cubs have caused my blood pressure to raise 40 points. Just get in guys, just get in.
• Planning a wedding takes way too much time. I've learned to just nod and agree with everything. Saves a lot of time that way.

You can expect our picks for Week 4 tomorrow evening. Just in time to print out and read on the shitter Friday morning.

The People's Champ

Week 3 - Rich's Pick

• Houston +6 Indy....This game should be close, if the Texans had Johnson...I'd take Houston as the outright winner here. Colts squeak by in another tough road divisional game.
• Green Bay +5 San Diego....Another great Week 3 matchup. On paper, San Diego is the better team. Green Bay, with their under-rated defense, should play the Chargers very tough.
• Kansas City -3 Minnesota....I dislike both teams...taking the Chiefs at home.
• Detroit +5.5 Philly...Is this the week that the Lions are finally taken seriously? As bad as Philly has played this far, hard to take the Eagles against ANYBODY by this many points...especially an improved Detroit team.
• Buffalo +16.5 New England....The Pats can't possibly blow everybody out every week...looking for a letdown after the big Chargers win.
• NY Jets -3 Miami-tough line....definitely not betting this game.
• Pittsburgh -9.5 San Fran...As much as I hate giving this many points to a team that is typically conservative offensively, the Steelers are hands down the better team here. San Fran comes back down to Earth this week.
• Arizona +9 Baltimore...Again, too many points for the Ravens to give ANYBODY the way they are playing.
• Tampa Bay -3.5 St. Louis....Unfortunately, it's going to be a long, long season for the Lambs.
• Jacksonville +3 Denver....Another tough call, these are 2 teams that aren't as good as they were supposed to be.
• Cincy +3.5 Seattle....Ocho Cinco. TD, TD, TD. Hasselbeck should have a good day as well. Taking over 49.5 for sure.
• Cleveland +3 Oakland....I made the winning pick last week with the Raiders. I'm going to take my winnings and call it a day. It should be a pretty safe bet to bet against Oakland every week from here on out regardless.
• Carolina -3.5 Atlanta....Atlanta has shown no ability to contend with a decent Carolina team to this point. Winning the wager last week +10.5 against Jacksonville was like pulling teeth. This may be another team to bet against every week.
• Washington -3.5 NY Giants....Gibbs has the Skins playing well and the G-men have way too many issues right now. AND they can't tackle anybody. Skins by 10.
• Dallas +3 Chicago....Again, I'm not sold on the Bears. Is this the week Grossman implodes so bad that Griese takes the helm? I price a 25% chance.
• Tennessee +4 New Orleans....the Titans are 10-2 ATS with VY at the helm. No way I'm betting against him and a feisty Titans team against a struggling Saints team.

Good luck this week!

Rich Kim

Week 3 Picks - TPC Style

How in hell did Rich and I end up with the same record last week even though we picked 10 different games?? Gotta love the NFL. I know I do!

Here are the winning picks for week 3.

Indy -6 @ Houston
2-0 Indy at 2-0 Houston seems like an intriguing matchup but this is the week the Texans come plummeting back to earth. They played a terrible KC team in week 1 and a flat Carolina squad that will be better than that loss. Combine that with the fact that Houston’s best playmaker, Andre Johnson is out this game and you’ve got all the makings of a blowout. Side note: Is it just me or does Indy look like they could win every game this season…all by 6 points or less? I can't wait for New England @ Indianapolis in week 9. Indy beats Houston easily.

San Diego -5 @ Green Bay
San Diego’s early season offensive struggles remind me of a new relationship. The first few weeks of a new relationship (training camp) are always great because you haven’t had time to pick apart the other persons flaws. You’re just getting to know each other and everything is bliss. After the ‘newness’ wears off (Weeks 1 and 2) you now have to build chemistry and see if you can live with any flaws you may have discovered. That’s what this team is doing with its coach…still building that chemistry it takes for any relationship to be successful. I can definitely live with this team’s flaws because they are over exaggerated. The Bolts faced two of the leagues toughest defenses the past two weeks (Bears and Pats). Chargers beat an over-achieving Packers team by double-digits.

Kansas City +3 vs Minnesota
Can someone please tell me why the Chiefs have thrown the ball 61 times and have only run it 45 times?? What are they saving LJ for…the playoffs? The Chiefs need to get back to basics and run, run, run. It won’t be easy against the sixth ranked rushing D. The Vikings have made dramatic improvements on the defensive side of the ball but are still vulnerable to the pass so we could see a lot of Tony Gonzalez this week. Given the home field advantage, the Chiefs will keep this game close. A loud, raucous home crowd will also help give a new QB (Kelly Holcomb) fits. Holcomb isn’t a youngster but he’s new to this system. This game will be a close, defensive battle. Minnesota by a late FG for the push but I wouldn’t be shocked if KC wins outright.

Detroit +6 @ Philly
I don’t think I need to keep hammering home the point that it takes two years to recover from an ACL tear. I’m pretty sure everyone realizes that by now. So why is everyone so shocked the Eagles are 0-2 and have looked terrible in the process? McNabb is clearly the glue that keeps this team together but he is physically unable to get the job done. The key for the Eagles in this game is to effectively run the ball to set up play action, but that will be tough with a banged up (big surprise) Brian Westbrook. If Westbrook misses this game, he’s officially listed as probable, things could get very ugly. And you’ll see a mad scramble for Correll Buckhalter in your fantasy league, if you haven’t already (grab him quick if you have an open roster spot!). I’m not sold on this Lions team either but look for Jon Kitna to exploit a banged up Philly secondary this week. Detroit wins this one outright and the boo birds make for an uncomfortable game for McNabb.

New England -16.5 vs Buffalo
What did last week teach us when 12 of 16 underdogs covered? It taught me that 16 points is WAY too many points to give any team. So what do I do? I take the favorite, naturally. The Patriots are the one team I feel comfortable with in this situation. They are firing on all cylinders and Sunday will be no different. Hell, their defense might outscore the Bills offense. Pats in a laugher….I would give 20 points in this game.

Miami +3 @ NYJ
NYJ -3 vs Miami
While writing this column, I just heard that Zach Thomas is officially out for this game. That’s all I need for this game. Miami has looked lost on both sides of the ball and this injury just kills them. Not that I like the Jets that much either. They haven’t shown that much this year but they do look like the team every one expected them to be last year…dreadful. But, nothing cures the winless blues like a visiting Dolphins team. Jets by 3 for the push with a possible 0-0 tie. At least I think that’s what will happen as I won’t be watching this game.

San Francisco +9.5 @ Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has beat up on some bad teams thus far, making this line way too high. Pittsburgh should come out on top in this slugfest but the 49ers are more than willing to fight back. Give me the points and a combined 65 runs by both teams and 15 tackles by your Defensive Rookie of the Year – Patrick Willis.

Arizona +9 @ Baltimore
See: Above. McNair's back but Ogden's out. Ravens win by a touchdown but the Cards cover.

St. Louis +3.5 @ Tampa Bay
We can blame the Bucs for adding to the confusion this year in the NFL. How did they beat that New Orleans team so badly? A couple of big plays from Jeff Garcia helped the cause and there is definite concern that he could do the same against an 0-2 Rams team. Also, Tampa didn’t allow a single turnover. That’s a recipe for a win no matter the talent on the team. That won’t happen again this week. Tampa’s ‘bend but don’t break’ Tampa 2 defense will bend just a little too much. Look for a lot of Bulger to Jackson underneath and Bulger to McMichael over the middle. Another key will be the 6-5 Drew Bennett matching up against the shorter Bucs cornerbacks in the red zone…look for Bennett to catch his first touchdown pass. Rams will right the ship this week and win a close, dink and dunk game.

Denver -3 vs Jacksonville
The Broncos have barely squeaked out two wins thus far and are officially on upset alert this week. The one thing they have going for them is the fact that they’re playing the Jags this week. The Jaguars could barely beat a very bad Falcons team last week and lost to an over-achieving Titans team in week 1, both games at home. A trip to Denver is not what the doctor ordered for this team. They will get punched in the mouth early and will never recover. Broncos in a close one (and another potential push) and the Jack Del Rio watch begins.

Cincinnati +3.5 @ Seattle
I love this line. Buyer Beware: I said the same thing about Cincinnati/Cleveland. The Bengals gave up 51 of the unluckiest points in the history of the NFL to a Browns team that was pissing gold last week. That won’t happen this week. The Bengals will turn this into a shootout and Seattle will have not choice but to oblige. Cincinnati by a td in a high scoring win.

Oakland -3 vs Cleveland
Anyone that saw Cleveland play last week should agree with this pick. Never in my young sports life have I seen such a bad team score so many points. Here are some quotes from last week’s Cleveland/Cincinnati commentators. “What a bad throw by Derek Anderson…he really got lucky with that one. Oh man the Browns got away with one there….(insert name here) dropped a surefire interception (this happened 2 or 3 times). A complete lapse in concentration by the Bengals’ D led to that Anderson touchdown.” The Browns had the right mix of luck and caught a Cincy D in hibernation. This won’t happen against a very good Oakland D. Oakland covers in a close, ugly game.

Carolina +3.5 vs Atlanta
Co-Lock of the Week Warning! The Panthers are another underachieving team that needs a big win in a bad way. Cue Joey Harrington and his fractured psyche. Just what the Panthers’ D ordered…a self-conscience QB who’s looking over his shoulder and is in danger of being decapitate with each 10 second, 9 step drop. Carolina will begin their ascent to the top of the NFC South, a division that will crown an 8-8 team its champion, with a home-field massacre of the Falcons.

Washington -3.5 vs NYG
Co-Lock of the Week Warning! Have I mentioned that Washington is my sleeper team of the year? Yeah, several times, I know. It just feels good to be right sometimes. It makes me feel even better when the Giants come to town. This will be the week where QB Jason Campbell solidifies himself as a potential superstar and the exact point in the season where the Giants quit on their coach. Tom Coughlin joins Jack Del Rio, Romeo Crennel, and Dick Jauron on the early season coaching hot seat. Redskins scalp the G-Men.

Chicago -3 vs Dallas
With the Cowboys’ secondary banged up, their defense won’t be as aggressive as they’d like to be. This will decide the game as a focused and unhurried Rex Grossman will pick them apart. I can’t believe I just wrote that, but it’s true. Grossman traditionally struggles when pressured and Dallas just doesn’t have the personnel to effectively blitz him in this game, resulting in a breakout game for Bernard Berrian. Chicago in a surprisingly easy win.

Tennessee +4 @ New Orleans
I couldn’t be more excited this week! My boys are on Monday night against a tough, but down Saints team and we all know VY loves the spotlight. I am ashamed to say I have picked against the Titans both weeks so far and even said they would be “bad, very bad” this year. Man, when I’m wrong, I’m wrong. There’s just something about Vince Young that this team responds to. It’s not the fact that he throws like Johnny Damon or that he runs like he’s moving in slow motion. He just has that “It” factor that few professional athletes have. This game will be billed as VY vs Reggie Bush but it will be the Titans’ Run D vs Bush and Deuce McAllister that will decide the winner. If New Orleans is going to turn this season around, they’ve got to run the ball more effectively and more often. Much like the Chiefs, the play-calling for the Saints has raised a few eyebrows. I know they had to throw more last week b/c they got down early, but they can’t be so quick to abandon the run. I’m scared of a desperate Saints team at home but the Titans will keep this game close. I’ll take the points in this one.

TPC

Week 2 Recap - SPORTSBOOK 101

Again, Week 2 was not a disaster...so definitely a moral victory! 12 of 16 underdogs covered, and even though my competition had far different picks than I did, we both ended up at 8-7-1 for the week. The day couldn't have started better for me, but got progressively worse and carried over into Monday Night. 2-3 in bets I actually made: San Fran +3 St. Louis (W), Atlanta +10.5 Jacksonville (W), Miami +4 Dallas (L), Seattle -3 Arizona (L), San Diego +3.5 New England (L). By some of the lines in Week 2, it appeared Vegas didn't know what they were doing. Jacksonville favored by double digits? Carolina by a TD over Houston? Washington getting a similar amount of points last night? 2 things here:
1. The first 2-4 weeks of the NFL season are pretty hard to set a line for since teams have not established how good they are. Example: Houston. Before the season, this was a 5 or 6 win team at most...now?? It's not out of the question that this team makes the playoffs.
2. The lines are merely the "market price" for action on a game. The line is set so a fairly similar amount of money comes in on both sides. If the action is skewed to one side, the line moves. Why did Jacksonville stay favored by 10.5? Because enough bettors were bringing in action for this price.

An important note about the above...bettors (by a decent margin) tend to bet on the favorite. For this reason, a lot of spreads are artificially higher than they should be AND in a normal year more underdogs beat the spread than favorites. The bottom line of this equation is that the casinos make a KILLING in weekends like Week 2. When the dogs come in, profits soar. 3 reasons for this:
1. 10% vig built in for all action
2. Underdogs (normally) cover more than favorites in a given year (and bettors tend to play favorites instead).
3. When the underdogs do come in like they do in Week 2, nearly everybody who plays a parlay or teaser card, loses. Parlay cards and prop bets are huge money makers for the books.

Now that we've established some of the doctrine in Sportsbook 101, it's time to move on to Week 3. The predictions will come out Friday, but looking at the schedule I couldn't help but noticing a lot of tough calls next week:

• San Diego -4.5 Green Bay....how good is Green Bay? Have they been underestimated? Are the Chargers over-rated?
• KC -3 Minnesota....seriously, 1 of these teams has to win?
• NE -16.5 Buffalo....my God that's a lot of points.
• Denver -3 Jacksonville...Wow, 2 teams that are completely overestimated.
• Oakland -3 Cleveland....Another game where it's unfortunate somebody will win.
• Chicago -3 Dallas....Another great Sunday Night game.
• New Orleans -4.5 Tennessee....you should already know who I'm taking! V-Y-M-V-P...OK maybe in a couple years.

This should be a tough, but interesting week.

Rich Kim

Senior Degenerate Gambler

WEEK 2 - Rich's Pick

Week 1 was not a disaster, so that's always a moral victory. 7-7-2 overall, 4-2 in games actually bet. Last week's wagers: Jets +6.5 Pats (L), Philly -3 Green Bay (L), Houston -3 KC (W), Tennessee +7 Jacksonville (W), San Diego -6 Chicago (W), Seattle -5.5 Tampa Bay (W). Funny story....with most of the 10:00 games over with, the only early game left I had action on was Philly-Green Bay. I was quietly confident that I would win this bet. Unfortunately Green Bay drove down the field in the waning seconds and lined up to kick a field goal. The ball was snapped...and then....it was like the Sopranos finale ending all over again. BLACK! Nothingness. Finally an error message appeared saying my access card was invalid. Seriously, this was the worst timing imaginable. After a lengthy hold time, I was told it was a national problem and at least ended up with 3 free months of Showtime. If this happens again, my blood pressure may reach Madden levels. Blood may squirt out my ears. So...if my Week 3 picks are not made, may the record show DirecTV killed me. Anyways, on to my Week 2 selections.

Pittsuburgh -10 Buffalo
I certainly don't love this pick, but I think the Steelers are at least a TD better at home against Buffalo....and probably more. J-Loss on the road against a solid Steelers defense pushes me to take the Steelers even with a double digit spread.

Cincinnati -6.5 Cleveland
How can you possibly bet on Cleveland in this game? From Week 1, what makes anybody think the Browns can play with a potential playoff team like the Bengals. Although the spread is now 7 in most books here in Vegas, the Bengals are still the better play.

Tennessee +7 Indianapolis
It killed my competition to pick against the Titans last week....and we all saw what happened. On paper, the Colts are clearly the better team, but remember last year? The Titans split the season series playing them tough both games. The Titans are still HOT, so I'm taking them here to at least play the Colts tough. Either I'm going to look like a genius here or a complete idiot...unsure which.

Houston +6.5 Carolina
The Texans played a horrible Chiefs team in Week 1, so it's hard to tell how good they really are. I could be going out on a limb here but I think this is at least an 8-8 team. The Panthers, to me, are similar. Logically, since the AFC is a far better conference....an average AFC team is equal to or better than an average NFC team. http://www.richslogic.com

San Francisco +3.5 St. Louis
The Rams looked awful in their opener, the 49ers not much better. With an awful Rams run defense, Frank Gore should run all over the Rams. Lock of the week? I already have action on it!

NY Giants -1 Green Bay
UGH. The Giants w/o Manning and 68 year old Favre on the road. This will be a completely ugly game...taking the G-men only b/c the game is in NY.

Atlanta +10.5 Jacksonville
Although the score did not show it, the Falcons didn't play awful in Week 1. With Harrington having a week under his belt, the offense will put some decent numbers on the board. The Jaguars couldn't score more than 10 last week on the Titans defense? Seriously? Jags win the game, but not by double digits.

New Orleans -3.5 Tampa Bay
The Saints offense not showing up for Week 1 is an unsolved mysteries. Was this a fluke? The team just didn't seem in sync all game long. If, and only if, the offense decides to play like it did all last year, the Saints win going away. The Bucs looked pretty bad in their debut and are up against my NFC Super Bowl pick....no way I'm taking the Bucs here.

Detroit -3 Minnesota
The Lions looked good in Week 1?! Wait, they played the Raiders. But still, the team has hope in the awful NFC North. The Vikes have a QB that should end up in the arena football league in about 3 years...and Peterson isn't enough alone to win on the road. Detroit starts 2-0 and gets a few people "buzzing" about being a sleeper team this year.

Miami +3.5 Dallas
OK, the 1/2 point swayed me. I think this game should be close...especially with how bad the Dallas D looked last week. Fins may end up winning this game outright.

Seattle -3 Arizona
This is the week that Seattle shows it is still the class of the NFC West. The crowd in Arizona should be amped, but Alexander and Hasselbeck remind them, after all, they are cheering for the ARIZONA CARDINALS. Seattle by 2 TD.

NY Jets +10 Baltimore
Plain and simple, 10 points is way too many to give to the J-E-T-S. So what if they looked bad against the Pats, was it really that much of a shocker? Look for a low scoring (total at 33.5) game that the Ravens squeak out.

Oakland +10 Denver
I did it again. I picked the Raiders. Although they could not even beat the friggin' Lions at home, I'm convinced the Raiders D will hold Cutler in check for the most part. Denver coasts to a 7 point win.

Kansas City +12 Chicago
I can't believe I just picked the Chiefs after how bad they looked in Week 1. I'm just that completely not sold on the Bears. To recap my picks so far, I've decided to take the Chiefs, Raiders, Jets, and Falcons all as double digit dogs. If I go 0-4 here, I'm going to be the source of great ridicule (and rightfully so) in next week's column.

San Diego +3.5 New England
Easily the game of the week, I'm still convinced San Diego has the most talent in the league. Couple the talent with a desperate revenge for last year's playoff suckout, and the Chargers will be juiced (insert Shawne Merriman joke here). San Diego wins outright.

Philly -6.5 Washington
Philly seemed in control of last week's game up until the final drive by Green Bay. Their potential hasn't been seen yet this year. How about a coming out party on Monday Night Football? Eagles roll.

The Nicknameless Wonder