Week 13

I absolutely hate making my weekend picks on a Wednesday night, but here it goes.....

• Green Bay +7 Dallas-The game of the week comes on a Thursday night. From what I hear, 2/3 of the country doesn't get the NFL network. My understanding of this situation is that the NFL network charges cable companies $.80 for their services. Apparently some of the cable companies have drawn the line and instead chose not to air them? Honestly I don't care because DirecTV has this network and I'll be sipping on a bottle of wine and enjoying the 2nd best game of the year. I like the Pack in this game....quite a bit. I price the Pack with a 40% chance of winning the game outright.
• St. Louis -3 Atlanta-I almost wagered on a 2 win team giving points. The Lambs are playing better now that Jackson is healthy. The Falcons are one big clusterf#@%. I'm definitely not watching this game, but the Lambs should win easy.
• Buffalo +5.5 Washington-The Bills play most teams tough and the Skins rarely blow anybody out....taking the points here.
• Detroit +3.5 Minnesota-The Vikes look like they could be making a playoff run with their solid D and excellent running game. Unfortunately, they have no QB. I'm taking the Lions to at least momentarily, get back on track.
• Houston +3.5 Tennessee-This game could go either way. It should be an excellent game....Titans win by a FG.
• Jacksonville +6.5 Indy-I'm under the impression that the Monday Night meeting between the two teams was a little bit of a fluke. With the Colts beat up, I'm expecting at worst a close game and possibly a Jags upset.
• Miami -1 NY Jets-How bad are the Jets? Rightfully so, they're underdogs to an 0-11 Miami Dolphins team. Look for the Fins to pickup their first win of the year.
• San Diego -6 Kansas City-I'm not on the Chargers bandwagon this year by any means, but I'm definitely betting against Brody Croyle.
• Philly -3 Seattle-It's official. Seattle on the road is a completely different team. As much as I think they are better than Philly, I'm taking the Eagles with Feeley.
• San Fran +3 Carolina-It's unfortunate somebody has to win this game.
• Tampa Bay +3 New Orleans-Which Saints team shows up? I have no idea. Huge game in the division....somehow I trust the Bucs a little more.
• Cleveland +1 Arizona-This is a completely difficult game for the Browns, but I'm taking them with the roll they are on.
• Denver -3.5 Oakland-The Raiders are awful and have no chance of the playoffs. Why is JaMarcus Russell not starting at this point?
• NY Giants -1 Chicago-The G-Men finally get back on track. Take the over!
• Pittsburgh -7 Cincy-Read nothing into last week's Monday Night 3-0 debacle. That was the worst field I've ever seen played on at ANY level of football. The Steelers will crush the Bengals (unless another monsoon happens)
• New England -20.5 Baltimore-I'm still not betting against the Pats....even with last week's strangely close game. There is no chance the Ravens (Kyle Boller at the helm) can bring a quick offense like the Eagles did. The machine rolls.

Honestly in real money terms, there isn't a lot I like this week. So far, I've taken Green Bay +7, Jags +6.5, NY Giants/Chicago over 42. I'm not overly confident about these picks but my strategy this year is to bet 3-5 games at the same amount of money all year. So far, so good. Good luck this week.

Week 12 Recap

I'm going to be completely honest. I watched virtually no pro football over the holiday weekend. I was able to catch Arkansas-LSU, Kansas-Mizzou, Seattle-St. Louis in the NFL. All 3 proved to be great games. Mizzou is now #1 in the nation and an underdog in the Big 12 title game. Gotta' love college football. Until we get a playoff system, it's hard to take seriously. Anyway, TPC went 10-6 on the week and I went 8-8. All 3 real money wagers of mine were winners: Cleveland -3, Seattle -3, Chicago/Denver over 41.

Standings
TPC: 82-84-10
Rico: 88-78-10

Picks due by tomorrow night....stay tuned!

Week 12 - TPC

Happy Turkey Day everyone. Or as I like to call it, Domestic Depression. Goddamn pilgrims. Anyways, on to the picks.

Green Bay -3.5 @ Detroit - Can't bet against GB, not even on Thanksgiving. You won't find me betting on this game, though.
NYJ +14 @ Dallas - Dallas wins by 10.
Atlanta +11.5 vs Indianapolis - Too many points for such a banged-up team.
St. Louis +3 vs Seattle - The Rams are back on track.
Minnesota +7 @ NYG - Vikes' D will keep this game close until the end. Giants squeek one out.
Buffalo +7.5 @ Jacksonville - *Upset Alert* Buffalo wins 21-17
New Orleans -2 @ Carolina - Saints will rebound and still make the division interesting.
Tampa Bay -3.5 vs Washington - I'm officially off the Redskin bandwagon. Go Bucs!
Houston +3.5 @ Cleveland - Houston is healthy and will win some games down the stretch, including this one.
Cincinnati +1.5 vs Tennessee - Teams have figured out the Titans...make Vince throw. He can't.
Oakland +6 @ Kansas City - Rumors of a JaMarcus Russell sighting makes me want to change my pick.
San Francisco +10.5 @ Arizona - Way too many points to give a Kurt Warner-led team.
San Diego -9.5 vs Baltimore - Baltimore is pitiful on offense. Quick prediction - Billick resigns at the end of the season.
Chicago -2.5 vs Denver - I've said it once this season now I'll say it again, Rex will turn his season around. This is the game he does it.
Philly +21 @ New England - Damn that's a lot of points!!
Pittsburgh -16 vs Miami - A rookie QB against this defense, no sir!

TPC

Week 12....RICO

• Detroit +3.5 Green Bay-If this game was played on a normal Sunday, I may take the Pack. Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, even with less talent than their opponent, plays pretty well. This game will be close....possible Lions upset here.
• Dallas -14 NY Jets-Again on most days, 14 would seem like too many points. Since the Cowboys, and particularly TO relish the national spotlight, I'm taking the Cowboys by any spread up to 19.
• Indy -11.5 Atlanta-Although the Colts are beat up, they should have no problem with a talent-less Falcons team.
• Denver +2.5 Chicago-Cutler looks like he's matured since the beginning of the season. If their defense can stop ANY TEAM, they would look like a shoe-in to win the awful AFC West. These are 2 completely over-rated defenses, take over 41.
• Tennessee -1.5 Cincy-Even the Titans offense can score on Cincy. If Haynesworth is out again, the Bengals may have a shot.
• Buffalo +7.5 Jacksonville-Buffalo got blown out by the Pats. So what? Who hasn't? Before that game, they were playing pretty solid football. It may be a stretch for them to win this game outright, but expect a close one.
• Oakland +6 Kansas City-Ugly game, both defenses play well; both offenses are pretty bad. The Chiefs should win, but they may score only 1 TD. KC 16 Oakland 13
• Cleveland -3.5 Houston-The half point scares the hell out of me here. I'm aboard the Browns bandwagon, but I can't make myself go to the sportsbook window and take them this week.
• Seattle -3 St. Louis-After taking a 2 week hiatus, I'm once again betting against the beat up Rams. This game could possibly be entertaining, but there is much better action on this week's card.
• NY Giants -7 Minnesota-I'm definitely not on the Giants bandwagon, but with Peterson out, the Vikes will have trouble scoring AGAIN. Giants win this one handily.
• New Orleans -2 Carolina-Ewwww. Not touching this game with a 10 foot pole.
• Washington +3.5 Tampa Bay-I'm surprised to get the hook here. The Bucs looked good last week, but do the Falcons really count at this point? Look for a Skins upset here.
• San Fran +10.5 Arizona-I'm also on the Cardinals bandwagon, but 10.5 is just too many points for a team that seems to play every game down to the wire.
• Baltimore +9.5 San Diego-It will be interesting to see how the Ravens come back from the Immaculate Deflection. Although San Diego may show a rare flash of brilliance again this week, I'm betting against it. 2 completely over-rated teams here.
• New England -21 Philly-I have no idea whether McNabb is playing or not. Does it really matter? There are unconfirmed reports that some of the sportsbooks have taken this game off of the board due to the sole fact that the Pats are THAT good.
• Miami +16 Pittsburgh- Plain and simple, it's too many points. In 5 out of their 10 losses, the Dolphins lost by a FG. Throw out Dallas and New England as they are clearly better than the Dolphins, and you have 10 point losses to Philly and Cleveland and 1 very bad game at Oakland. I'm looking to bet ON the Dolphins for most of the rest of the season.

That's all for this week. Have a happy Thanksgiving.

Week 11 Recap (West Coast Style)

Every Monday and Tuesday, when it's time to recap the previous NFL week, the only thing that comes to my mind is "Wow! What a great week of football....". This season has provided some outstanding games and Week 11 was no exception. It's hard to peg the best game of the week...but I'm going to name Cleveland-Baltimore as the game from this week that we'll all remember at the end of the season. My creative name for this game: The Immaculate Deflection. Oh yeah, I just did that.


Seriously, has this ever happened at any level of sport, much less a game-tying field goal at the end of regulation? The officials ended up making the right call but the end of regulation produced 2 major questions:


1. Why are field goals not reviewable?

2. The ref put on the headphones to review the play but was supposedly told it wasn't reviewable. If this happened, how was there enough evidence to overturn the call on the field?


Needless to say, the Browns won the OT coin flip and kicked the game winning field goal on their first possession. Although this would make a completely good blog topic for another time, when is the NFL going to adopt college's version of OT? It's clearly more fair than letting a team that wins the coin flip have an approx. 35% chance of winning the game on THAT drive.


Having action on the game, the ending couldn't have been more exciting. Taking the Browns -2.5 makes me look like a genius or extremely lucky, unsure which. There were other great games (Steelers-Jets, Skins-Cowboys), but for me, the Browns-Ravens game was as exciting as any game I've seen this year. Finally back on track with real money wagers, 3-1 on the week. Indy -14.5 (L), Pats -16 (W), Houston -1 (W), Cleveland -2.5 (W). Taking all favorites, I made it my chalk week. For the season, I'm 20-15-1 in real money wagers. Although I've abandoned my "always bet against the Rams" strategy, I'm still taking the Pats every week regardless.

We're on a short week here at the Bullpen Catcher, so stay tuned for picks due by Wednesday night!


Week 11 results:

Midwestern Flavor: 8-7-1

West Coast Style: 8-7-1



STANDINGS

Midwestern Flavor: 72-78-10

West Coast Style: 80-70-10

Week 11 - TPC

Quick picks again this week.

Jacksonville -3 vs San Diego
Indianapolis -14.5 vs Kansas City
Oakland +5.5 @ Minnesota
Cleveland -2.5 @ Baltimore
NYJ +10 vs Pittsburgh
Atlanta +3 vs Tampa Bay
Cincinnati -3 vs Arizona
Philadelphia 10 vs Miami
Dallas -10.5 vs Washington
New Orleans +1 vs Houston
Green Bay -10 vs Carolina
NYG -3 @ Detroit
St. Louis +3 @ San Francisco
Seattle -6 vs Chicago
New England -14.5 @ Buffalo
Tennessee +1 @ Denver

TPC

Week 11 - Rich

• San Diego +3 Jacksonville-This game opened as a pik and has already moved to 3. Funny thing is I would consider taking Jacksonville outright. Look for LDT to get back on track in a close one.
• Indy -14.5 Kansas City-Brodie Croyle is starting for a Chiefs team that averages 15 points a game. Enough said....this game is over by halftime.
• Minnesota -5.5 Oakland-2 completely inept offenses. Under 35 points looks like an outstanding proposition. Look for Peterson to carry the Vikes yet again.
• Cleveland -2.5 Baltimore-When Kyle Boller is a better option at QB, your team has issues. I'm high on Cleveland....until they prove me wrong, I'm playing them almost weekly.
• Pittsburgh -10 NY Jets-The Jets defense will give up 30+ to an under-rated Steeler offense. The spread is high, but Roethlisberger is having a big year and has his best weapon back (Ward). Steelers win a rout.
• Atlanta +3 Tampa Bay-I hate picking John Joseph Harrington in any situation, but the Bucs on the road are pretty weak. If the Falcons win this game, they are right back in the division champion picture. This will definitely be an ugly game, but competitive.
• Arizona +3 Cincy-The Cardinals are the "other" dark horse in the NFL to make a playoff run. Kurt Warner and a good Cardinal offense should have a field day against Cincy. Cardinals win this game outright.
• Miami +10 Philly-Philly won an impressive game last week. Maybe they are improving? I'm still not sold on their offense. Miami can hang with Philly for most of the game....too many points here.
• Washington +10.5 Dallas-Huge spread for a big rivalry. Dallas (and Green Bay) look to be the class of the NFC. The Cowboys definitely win this game, but I'm picking them by 10.
• Houston -1 New Orleans-I know I said I was not going to bet on or against the Saints anymore this year....but I smell something cooking in Houston. Fresh off a bye week, Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, and Ahman Green are all back? This offense just improved 150%. I like the Texans by double digits here. (Waiting for the Saints to somehow screw me once again this year).
• Green Bay -10 Carolina-Vinny is going to have major problems scoring against the Packers defense. The Pack continue to improve and will have no problems again this week.
• Detroit +3 NY Giants-I'm looking forward to this game. The Lions play well at home but the Giants are the more talented team. Definitely not wagering this game, but this game should be close. Taking the home dog.
• San Fran +3 St. Louis-This game will have a huge impact on the draft next year....that's about it.
• Chicago +6 Seattle-I'm not buying into the "new" Seahawk offense, but that's not why I'm taking the Bears. Sexy Rexy is back! He led his team to victory against an awful Raiders team and has a new-found lease on life. For maybe a couple of games, he'll play well and make everybody feel guilty for wanting him benched in favor of Griese. And then he'll bomb again in a huge game which will probably lead to his ultimate demise in Chicago. Bears in a possible outright upset.
• New England -14.5 Buffalo-Again, why pick against the Patriots in any situation?
• Denver -1 Tennessee-Tough pick here. The Titans do run pretty well and that's the one thing the Broncos can't stop. On paper it would only make sense to take the Titans. I'm going against reason here and taking the Broncos at home on Monday Night. Under 38 looks outstanding.