What brought this on? Within the last week, the Las Vegas Sports Consultants (the guys who set the opening lines for the sportsbooks) released the over/under win totals on each team for the 2007 NFL regular season. OK...each team except the Atlanta Falcons. The goal of this column is not to predict division winners, playoff contenders, or Super Bowl winners...it's simply some opening thoughts on each team and whether they may/may not beat their win total. As some of you may know, I change my impression on teams a lot. Example, NY Yankees. They went all the way from Wild Card winner to out of the playoffs to AL Champs? in my mind just in the last month. Yeah, I made that bet. 8-1 at the Hilton that they would win the AL. This was when they were 10 games back. Getting back on track....
AFC EAST
Buffalo (6)---OK, by no means am I saying the Bills are the class of their division, but 6 games? 7-9 last year in a division with 2 playoff teams...I can't see this team falling off by 2+ games? Take the over, doubtful they go 5-11 or worse....even with their tougher schedule.
New England (11.5)---This is a special team with or without Randy Moss. Pats get an A+ for offseason acquisitions. Toughest games in 07 at: NY Jets, Cincy, Dallas, Indy, Baltimore...San Diego at home. If they go 3-3 there, hard to believe they'll lose 2 more games. 11.5 is a tough number for them, but if I had to pick...I'd take the over.
NY Jets (8)---NY went 10-6 last year, but everything seemed to fall into place perfectly. Pennington stayed healthy?!, the schedule was fairly easy, and 1st year coach Eric Mangini changed the mentality in the locker room. The J-E-T-S don't have 1 easy road game and host the likes of New England, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia. If, I mean, WHEN Pennington gets hurt in Week 3, this team will not be able to hold it's own. Take the under, I smell a 6-10 year at best.
Miami (7.5)---How they went 6-10 last year is beyond me. Before losing it's last 3, Miami actually had a chance at the playoffs. Miami starts the season relatively soft including it's first 4 road games only being against Washington, NY Jets, Houston, Cleveland. They probably go 2-2 there, but those could be their only road wins all season (other road games are Philly, Pitt, Buffalo in December, New England in December). 4-4 or 5-3 at home...doesn't quite get them to 7.5 wins. I'm not impressed with their schedule, but I'm not sure this team has the talent (see: multiple QB situation) to win 8 games, so take the under.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (9.5)---An impressive 13-3 last year, McNair proved to be an excellent pickup for the Ravens. McNair may regress, and will probably hobble off the field 342 times during the course of the season, but with Baltimore's defense being THE class of the league yet again, this team will likely achieve double digit wins. Willis McGahee will certainly help the cause and their defense alone will win 6-7 games...definitely taking the over.
Cincinnati (9)---This is a hard team to figure out. Tons of talent, but half of their team are convicted felons. Went 8-8 last year, but would've won the last 2 games if it weren't for their kicker. Average defense, good offense....tough division. Let me re-state that...TOUGH division. Probably the toughest in the NFL in 07. Reluctantly, I'm going to give them the nod to win 10 games. 9-7 is definitely the most likely outcome.
Cleveland (6)---I've heard multiple radio personalities call them improved. Did I miss something? How did they improve? Brady Quinn likely gets playing time by the end of the year...this team is the doormat of the division. Going 0-6 in the division AGAIN this year is likely. Just for fun let's assume they go 1-5. To bet the over, you have to assume Cleveland can go 6-4 in their other 10 games. Get the picture?! Running down to the sportsbook...take the under.
Pittsburgh (9)---Lamest title defense ever last year, but still ended up at 8-8. Roethlisberger doesn't win games for the team, their defense does. As long as he doesn't lose it for them (which he was good at before last year), this team will be solid. Schedule doesn't scare me at all even with Baltimore and Cincy twice. Probable division winner with 10+ wins. Back in the playoffs, but the AFC (much like the AL in baseball) is stacked. My final predictions in 1 month. I think.
AFC SOUTH
Houston (6.5)---Remarkably, they won 6 games last year while being outscored by 99 points on the season. Give them 4 wins at home this year. Can they win 3 on the road? The question is not "How good is Matt Schaub?" The question IS: "Can the offensive line give him at least a fighting chance?" or "Does Mario Williams really matter that much?" By not taking Reggie Bush, this team deserves to be cursed for years. Could they win 7 or 8?...unlikely but possible. Still, since the Texans have never won more than 6 games, I'm betting against them.
Indianapolis (11)---This perennial powerhouse will not have a Super Bowl letdown year. The Colts were not the most talented team last year (see: San Diego), but like most years they are able to manage games well even with a sub-par defense. Their offense is, once again, that good. Although the Colts defense was the main factor in winning the Super Bowl last year, the Colts offense bails the defense out year after year during the regular season. Why would this season be any different? Over 11 wins.
Jacksonville (8)---Realistically, they will probably start 4-1 with home games against Tennessee, Atlanta, Houston...travelling to Denver and KC (probable split). Solid team that can run the ball (Maurice Jones-Drew was my fantasy hero last year) and play great team defense. Going 5-6 the rest of the season could be difficult with road games at: Tennessee, New Orleans, Indy and Pittsburgh. Tough call, but I'd have to pick the over b/c this team has more good things about it than bad. Does that sound like something a girl would say? (Scratching myself and opening a beer now)
Tennessee (7)---Coming down the stretch of the 06 season, this was probably the most entertaining team to watch. The defense still has serious issues, but with Vince Young at QB, this young team is starting to believe. Definitely a dark horse. Tab. 3 freebies on the schedule (Oakland, Houston, Atlanta) all at home. Reasonably, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team win 4 games or 10 games. It could go either way. Since they ended last season on fire and VY is on the brink of becoming a great QB, I'm taking the over.
AFC WEST
Denver (9.5)---Jay Cutler. Make or break year for him. The Broncos schedule in 07 seems to favor them as most of their tougher opponents are at home. This is huge, as I'm not yet sold on Cutler (especially on the road). Strong arm, but decision making? It remains to be seen. The Broncos play strong defense which will be needed with the inexperienced Cutler at QB. Tough call, but I think 9.5 wins is a wee bit too high for this team. Broncos are a likely 8-8 or 9-7 team in 07, we'll go under.
Kansas City (7.5)---Larry Johnson was absolutely run into the ground last year. Herman Edwards seems like a decent coach, but is he too tough on his players? Damon Huard at QB? I realize he had better numbers than Trent Green last year, but seriously, Damon Huard?? The defense actually played reasonably well last year, expect the same this year. Also, will 84 year old Priest Holmes help the team? A lot of question marks here; too many for me. Even with playing Oakland twice and one of the best home field advantages in the NFL, the Chiefs may have too many question marks to be competitive in the AFC this year. 8-8 would be a moral victory for this team. Take the under.
Oakland (5)---Insert joke here. This team barely averaged 10 points a game last year, and yet somehow, they managed to win 2 games. Honestly, in 06 Rob Ryan had the defense playing better than the average NFL team....so that just shows how incredibly horrible the offense was. Culpepper is supposed to help this? And a first year coach, Lane Kiffin? They were an absolute trainwreck last year, can't expect much more this year. 3-13 likely, take the under.
San Diego (10.5)---Last year, it was a tragedy this team did not win the Super Bowl. By far, they were the most complete team in the NFL. Once again, Marty-ball proved to be deadly during the playoffs. He made a couple of bad coaching decisions that game, but firing him in favor of Norv Turner??? No thanks, give me Marty back. New England, talent-wise, has nearly caught up to San Diego (some would say they passed them)...and with Norv Turner as head coach...New England is deservedly the favorite this year. I like the Chargers a lot, and regardless of how terrible of a coaching hire this was, San Diego still has a ton of talent and the most exciting player in the game (LDT). Remember, the Diamondbacks won a World Series under Bob Brenley...so that just shows talented teams CAN still win with a horrible coach. Still the class of the league, and Rivers is only going to get better. Take the over.
NFC East
Dallas (9.5)---Maybe the most enigmatic team from last year. This team went from awful to great, back down to somewhat awful. I can't remember a team that followed this pattern to the degree that Dallas did last year. Entering December, they looked like the team to beat in the NFC. Entering January, they looked like a team that didn't deserve to be in the playoffs. Will TO blow up in 07? Will Romo have any mental effects from the fumbled snap that knocked his team out of the playoffs? The biggest question mark of all: Wade Phillips? Wade Phillips makes Norv Turner look like Vince Lombardi. Write that one down. With all that said, the Cowboys schedule in 07 is relatively easy...maybe the easiest schedule in the league? Toughest games: at Chicago, at Carolina and their divisional games (not that tough). They do have a tough contest against New England, but at least they have the Pats at home. Reluctantly (with all the question marks) I'm going to take the over due to the easy schedule.
NY Giants (8)---Can Eli still develop into an elite QB? And for God's sakes, why can't he play well on the road? Also, can Brandon Jacobs be an every down back? Life without Tiki is going to be hard to get used to in NY. Although (like Dallas) they do have an easy schedule, they don't quite have the same talent as the Cowboys. Toughest games at home, easier ones on the road....I'm going to have to take over the total because of this. It's hard to see the Giants as a losing team with their soft schedule.
Philadelphia (9)---When McNabb went down last year, this team appeared to be dead in the water. Somehow, some way, they bonded as a team and unlikely hero Jeff Garcia helped this team to a 10-6 record last year. With a serious lack of WR talent, and Westbrook and McNabb only getting older, I'm not following the crowd on this and picking them as division champs. Could they win 10 or 11 games and win the division? Sure, their schedule isn't too bad and the team can get hot again like last year...but this year seems less likely. Very competitive division and I'm going to bet that last season was more of an anomaly than anything. I'm going with the under.
Washington (7.5)---Seriously, who is playing QB for this team? Campbell, Brunell??? Does it matter? Portis, also, is only getting older. Furthermore, the defense may be better this year...but they don't have to try hard to beat last year's performance. Maybe they fare slightly better than 5-11 last year, but not by much. Ironically, their schedule seems to be the toughest in the division...hard to see taking the over. Skins are a losing team...again.
NFC NORTH
Chicago (10)---Chicago seriously over-achieved last year. I doubted the Bears until the very end. They somehow ventured to prove me wrong all season long until the final game. Grossman at QB and a team that relies on it's defense. If you remember correctly, the Bears defense started the season shutting down teams and comparisons were made to the greatest team ever ('85-'86). December came, and suddenly, the Bears couldn't even stop Tampa Bay's offense at home. Having locked up home field advantage, the Bears continued to do just enough to win and ended up in the Super Bowl. In 07, things could be quite different. Although the NFC North is probably the weakest division in football, the Bears could have trouble getting to double digit wins. I'm also pricing a 70% chance we'll see Brian Griese take over the starting job by season's end. Could 8-8 win the North this year?? Possible...taking the under.
Detroit (6)---Jon Kitna guarantees 10 wins this year. This is possibly as absurd as Roy Williams being quoted (after a 9-6 loss to Seattle) how scary it was how close the Lions got to putting 40 up on the board. Detroit's schedule may make 6 wins a little low. There really isn't a team that they don't at least have a shot at beating at home and road games include Oakland, Washington, Arizona, and Minnesota (Green Bay in late December does not qualify as a weak team). So maybe if they pick 2 or 3 games up there and likely go at least 4-4 at home...it's quite plausible this team could be at the .500 mark. 3 wins last year...but I'm betting this year may be a little different. I'm going against most reasonable people and saying they win more than 6 and "could" be in the hunt for a division title. (This prediction "could" be used against me after this season)
Green Bay (7.5)---103 year old Brett Favre leads his team into another season at historic Lambeau Field. The Pack completely over-achieved last year by winning 8 games. Morency is not a #1 back. Driver (their #1 receiver) is only good b/c Favre likes him. The team has some young talent, but too many old grizzled veterans to be any good next year. Easy schedule, but I don't think Favre has it in him to make this team a winning one. Take the under.
Minnesota (7)---Serious QB issues. I give Tarveris Jackson a 20% chance of being a starting NFL QB in 3 years. Why 20%? Because if I put it any lower I would look like a complete idiot when he turns out to be the next Steve McNair. The Vikes Adrian Peterson could turn out to be the steal of last year's draft. This kid is going to be good. Weak division, and the team could easily start out 3-0 (vs Atlanta; at Detroit; at Kansas City). I hate picking a team over the total with little talent at QB, but I'm going to take the Vikes over. To recap, I've taken the 2 favored teams in the NFC North under the total and the 2 underdog teams over the total. If I'm correct, this division could be one serious clusterf#$%.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta (NL)---The only team Vegas can't put a number on (for good reason). I don't care what the number is, I'm taking the under. 2 words: Joey Harrington. Due to the Michael Vick situation, I'm going to pretend this team doesn't exist.
Carolina (9)---What was the deal with Jake Delhomme last year? Pretty good QB until then. With David Carr competing for the job as well, Delhomme HAS to be good. For whatever reason, this team just couldn't put it together last year. Moderately difficult schedule for an NFC team (at St. Louis, at Tennessee, at Jacksonville, vs Indy, vs Seattle, vs Dallas...and New Orleans twice). I don't love the pick, but I'm going to take the under based on the unlikely probability of them winning 10 games. It could happen, but I see a more likely result of 8-8 or 9-7.
New Orleans (9)---Move over Dallas, this is America's team. Reggie Bush, the next most exciting player, is either A. the best decoy ever or B. one of the best "home run" hitters ever depending on the play. 06 was no fluke, this team is for real. With young receivers like Copper and Colston, the team has more upside than what was shown last year. Throw in an improving defense, and you have (in my humble opinion) the team to beat in the NFC. The Saints winning more than 9 games this year is a no-brainer.
Tampa Bay (7)---Historically a defensive team, the Bucs can't even do that right anymore. Acquiring Jeff Garcia is really going to help the offense that much? Better than Harrington?? Snicker. Garcia + average defense = less than 7 wins.
NFC WEST
Arizona (7.5)---Last year, the Cardinals were the "trendy" pick to be a good team and sneak into the playoffs. Nearly every year, the "trendy" pick ends up being wrong. On paper, once again, the Cardinals look like this could be the year they bust out. With the season starting: at San Fran, vs. Seattle, at Baltimore, vs Pittsburgh, at St. Louis, vs Carolina....the Cardinals HAVE to hit the ground running in 07 for it to be a successful year. My prediction is a slow start to the season with a somewhat strong finish (Leinart also improving throughout the season). Still a sexy pick to win the NFC West, but I'm going to pass and take the under.
Seattle (9)---With Alexander missing most of the season, this team looked like the underachieving Seattle team from the 2004 and prior seasons last year. Hasselbeck looked old, receivers dropped balls, and the defense was average at best. Can this team get back to the way it played in 05? Branch, Burleson, Engram, Hackett at WR....I'm going to say no. Fantasy football wise, what do we make of Shaun Alexander? He certainly did not look like his normal self last year (except against Green Bay). Is he getting too old? This is a hard team to figure out so I wouldn't recommend betting them either way...going to go with under 9 wins since I have to choose.
San Francisco (8)---Frank Gore looked solid last year. Alex Smith seemed to improve his game quite a bit. The 49ers defense, quietly, played good defense. For a while, it even looked like the 06 Niners could make the playoffs. For this reason, the "trendy" pick this year is San Franscisco. Mike Nolan has improved San Fran to the point that people in the Bay Area are actually paying attention to the NFL again. However, I'm going against the grain and taking under the total. I'm not convinced in Alex Smith's talent at the NFL level...and he still has a serious lack of WRs to throw to.
St. Louis (7.5)---The Rams started and ended the season well last year, but looked awful in between. Holt and Bruce are old, but still remain one of the best receiving tandems in the game. The defense is still sub-par, but playing in the Edward Jones dome, the offense can bail them out most of the time. Looking at the Rams schedule, the team could easily go 6-2 or 7-1 at home. Pittsburgh and Seattle are the toughest games at home. Assume they lose both those but win the rest (Carolina, San Fran, Arizona, Cleveland, Atlanta, Green Bay); it'd be hard to imagine them going 1-7 or 0-8 on the road. With the risk of sounding like a homer, I'm taking the Rams over 7.5 wins.
This concludes my lengthy "first look" at the NFL. I don't know about the rest of anybody else that reads this, but I can't friggin' wait until the beginning of the football season. When the NFL starts, no other sport matters (except in the unlikely event of the Cubbies still playing baseball in October occuring). Comments? Questions? Please, feel free....I'm open to criticism and/or open conversation about any of these teams.
Rich Kim,
Senior Degenerate Gambler
No comments:
Post a Comment