My UFC 71 Prediction

We are only one day away from the Chuck Liddell-Quinton Jackson rematch, and I can’t wait for the fight. If you’ve read my previous post, you’ll see that I don’t have much new to say. Liddell will certainly enter the Octagon the favorite, but I’m surprised to how close the betting lines are. Most websites have it about -180/+150 in Liddell’s favor. When you take into account that Liddell has shown very little weakness since his fourth round TKO over Horn, and that Jackson still has unavenged losses to Shogun and Wanderlei Silva, you’d think the betting deck would be stacked a lot higher against against Jackson. Regardless, this fight is way too close for me to call with any degree of confidence. But when I really think about—when I really examine each fighter’s motivation —my gut tells me that Jackson is going to take this fight.

Jackson has everything to gain by winning on Saturday. He’s been of the verge of MMA superstardom for several years now, but has yet to secure a title in one of the major organizations. He fought Wanderlei Silva for Pride’s middleweight championship, but lost that fight via brutal KO. He was subsequently maimed by Mauricio “Shogun” Hua and never saw another title shot. Come tomorrow night, however, Jackson will be fighting for the sport’s most coveted light-heavyweight title on the world’s largest stage.

When you really break it down, Jackson every reason to fight like his life depends on it. A second victory over Liddell will completely change Jackson’s life, and he knows that. He knows that the wealth and fanfare that accompany the title will replace the indigence and humility that marked his childhood. Pride, on the other hands, seems to be Liddell’s primary motivation for taking this fight. He is no doubt approaching the twilight of his career, and at this point he seems to want only to prove to himself that he is better than Jackson—that the first fight was a fluke. Both fighters will enter the octagon tomorrow night with bestial aggression, but only Jackson will be able to maintain it throughout the fight. I don’t think’s pride will not be enough to push him for five rounds. If Jackson makes it past the first three rounds, the UFC will have a new light-heavyweight champion

My reluctant pick: Rampage via referee stoppage

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