10 things from Week 10

We learned A LOT in Week 10. In fact, Week 10 revealed more about the strength of more NFL teams than any other week. Let's examine a little more closely what we learned.





1. Yes, the Colts lost. But let me get this straight....Manning throws 6 INTs, the Chargers had a 23 point lead, Vinatieri misses 2 FGs (including a chip shot game winner), and the Colts STILL nearly beat a probable playoff team on the road? This game showed how far above the rest of the NFL the Colts and Pats actually are. My theory is this: Take away these 2 teams and the AFC and NFC are approximately the same strength. Think about it. Upper rung teams: Cowboys, Giants, Packers vs. Steelers, Chargers, Jags. Horrible teams: St. Louis, San Fran vs NY Jets, Miami. And in-between, a whole lot of mediocrity: Washington, Arizona, Detroit, the entire NFC South vs. Buffalo, Cleveland, Baltimore, Cincy, the entire AFC West (minus Oakland). The Chargers fit into both categories...mediocrity and upper rung. This team has the most wasted talent in the league. Nice job firing Marty. What'd we learn here? This is definitely NOT the Chargers year and the Colts are that much better than the rest of the league.





2. Dallas exposed the NY Giants. The Giants are pretenders and it showed last week. Yes, they'll make the playoffs...but look at their 6 wins. Philly and Washington are decent, but not great wins, the rest? Miami, NY Jets, San Fran, Atlanta! Let me get this straight, they get complimented for playing good defense against these teams. I call shenanigans. If this team was from any "normal" U.S. city, they would looked at the same way the Detroit Lions are. A team that beat up on soft competition and may make the playoffs, but will come back down to reality once the competition gets better.





3. Which leads to #3. I nearly bought into the Lions 6-2 record. Arizona dominated them...bringing them back to reality. Looking ahead to their late season schedule, 10 wins may be a stretch: Green Bay (twice), NY Giants, Dallas, Kansas City, at Minnesota and at San Diego. It's beginning to look like a 9-7 season at best. What'd we learn? Detroit is in trouble during the 2nd half of the season and Arizona is very well coached....possible dark horse to make a playoff run. Remaining Arizona schedule: at Cincy, San Fran, Cleveland, at Seattle, at New Orleans, Atlanta, St. Louis. If they can learn to win a couple road games, this team could sneak in to the postseason.





4. The Titans lack of solid QB play is finally catching up with them. VY needs to grow up and learn to not throw like a 15 year old girl. It was easy to be high on him when the Titans were winning, but the over-achieving defense can only carry the team so far. With that said, VY is still a winner in my book. He has the Titans at 6-3 and they remain one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL this year. If he can progress, the Titans could be a solid team for years to come.





5. The Saints, after thoroughly confusing everybody, appear to once again not have it this year. I'm going to discontinue wagering on or against this team in all capacities. They look outstanding for 4 straight games and get blown away by the lowly Rams at home? Obviously, they have serious defensive issues, but the offense should be able to carry the team....but somehow that's inconsistent. Again, stay away from wagering on this team.





6. The Ravens don't give up a TD and get blown out. This pains me to say it, but McNair has reached the point of no return. The Ravens are better off with Kyle Boller at the helm....I can't believe under any circumstances I just mentioned the previous statement.





7. If I've ever seen a good loss, it was Cleveland proving that they can hang tough with a good Pittsburgh team on the road. This turned out to be the best game of Week 10. Pittsburgh rallied from behind and then held off the Browns final drive in an outstanding divisional battle. 4 road games remain(Baltimore, NY Jets, Arizona, Cincy)....if the Browns can split these, San Fran, Buffalo, and Houston travel to Cleveland...a likely 3-0 there. We could be looking at a 10-6 Browns team that may sneak into the playoffs. What a surprise!





8. Green Bay is even better than we thought....completely dominant performance over Minnesota in Week 10. This team seems to be getting better as the season progresses. Dallas and Green Bay are the class of the NFC....look for the team that gains home field advantage to head to the Super Bowl.





9. Improbably, the Buffalo Bills are 5-4. Unfortunately for them, it's their turn to get stomped by New England next Sunday Night. Although they are 5-4, it doesn't appear their offense can carry them into the postseason. Also, they still have 4 very tough road games against Jacksonville, Washington, Cleveland, and Philly. So Buffalo, enjoy the good feeling while it lasts. 7-9 finish at best.





10. Oakland is now 2-7. If it wasn't for Buffalo, they would have the worst offense in the league. Now that they are clearly out of the picture, it's time to see what JaMarcus Russell can bring to the table. Oakland, now 3 games out of 1st, officially has nothing to lose. If for any reason we don't see Russell in the next game or two, Lane Kiffin will find himself on the hot seat.

Results from Week 10:

Midwestern Flavor 8-5-1

West Coast Style 6-7-1

STANDINGS

Midwestern Flavor 64-71-9

West Coast Style 72-63-9

Slowly, the competition is starting to heat up!

Week 10 - TPC

Quick picks this week. Go Titans! Good luck Rico.

Tennessee -4.5 vs Jacksonville
Denver +3.5 @ Kansas City
Buffalo -3 @ Miami
Cleveland +10 @ Pittsburgh
New Orleans -11.5 vs St. Louis
Atlanta +4 @ Carolina
Washington -3 vs Philadelphia
Green Bay -6 vs Minnesota
Cincinnati +4.5 @ Baltimore
Chicago -3.5 @ Oakland
NY Giants +1 vs Dallas
Arizona -1 vs Detroit
Indianapolis -3.5 @ San Diego
Seattle -10 vs San Francisco

TPC

Poker talk

In early July, my parents were in town to visit. Like myself, my father is a bit of a poker player. Although his stakes are higher than mine, I talked him into playing the 11 PM $60 tournament at the Sahara. 110 or so players started the event (WSOP season led to higher fields). I busted out rather undramatically in approximately 40th place. My father, on the other hand, played solid poker and was picking up the right hands at the right time. When his KK nearly doubled up on A-J off at approx 3 AM, he was 2nd or 3rd in chips with about 15 players remaining. He was a shoe-in for the final table. About 20 minutes later with 14 players remaining the following hand took place at his table: Player in 2nd position (very tight) pushes all in. He has the enough chips to put every player in except one...my father. My father has the button and picks up AcKc. After thinking for a few seconds, he calls. The flop: Kd-8s-3c. Turn: 6h. River Jd. Without reading further, did my father make the right call?

I've presented this situation to many of my poker playing friends (many of which are professional poker players). Approximately 80% of them state that my father made the correct play here. Regardless of the buyin (final table only pays out), you have to play to win the tournament. If he wins the hand, he is commanding chip leader and has a dominating chip stack. 1st in the tourney payed around $2400. For a $60 buy-in, that is not bad!

This is where I beg to differ....in a huge way. The player in early position raising all-in with a big stack OBVIOUSLY has a huge hand. You can boil this down to approximately 7 hands. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, or AQ. Any other hands like 99, 88, or AJ suited are very highly unlikely for this opponent. Because he is such a tight player, I found it very unlikely that he held TT or AQ. The most likely outcome is AK, JJ or QQ. Outside chance of KK or AA. With this knowledge, we can proceed as follows:

If my opponent has AQ, I'm a huge favorite....but it's highly unlikely b/c he's that tight.
If my opponent has TT, it's a coin clip...but it's somewhat unlikely he has this b/c he's that tight.
If my opponent has JJ or QQ, it's a coin flip with him slightly favored.....good chance he has this.
If my opponent has AK, it's a push...and I'm slightly favored being suited.
If my opponent has AA or KK, I'm screwed.....bigtime!

This is my take on the hands his opponent likely has. Honestly, I saw the hand and put him on QQ. When my father called, I knew it was a mistake w/o seeing his cards.

What did the opponent have? JJ. Scrolling backward....that was a devastating river card.

My strategy here is to NOT make a likely coin flip for your virtual tournament life. Although it would have been slightly hard being in the moment, the correct play is to laydown AK...pricing in there is a 1 in 4 chance that my opponent picked up KK or AA and I'm screwed. 50% of the time (at least) I'm pricing a coin flip for my virtual tournament life. Why do that? My strategy is to live to play another day.

Maybe I won't be big stack when I reach the final table....but:
A: at least I got there to get paid
B: at least I have I have the chance to outplay or out-luck the remaining field

My father busted out a couple hands later with A7 offsuit trying to make something happen on a short stack. Although he still believes he made the right play (as do much of my poker friends), I play another way. Comments?

Week 10

After falling off, it's time to get back on the horse. Week 10 predictions (West Coast Style)

• Jacksonville +4.5 Tennessee-Garrard practiced today. If he plays, this is the correct pick as it should be an outstanding game. If he's out again, look for the Titans defense to swallow Quinn Gray whole.
• KC -3.5 Denver-Cutler is very questionable when he is healthy, especially on the road. He practiced today, but regardless, the Broncos are in trouble here. Throw in an absolutely awful Denver run defense and Priest Holmes should be the big story this week. This line appears to be heading for 3, so if you want the Chiefs wait a day or two.
• Buffalo -3 Miami-How ironic would it be if the Pats go 16-0 and the Dolphins 0-16? A resurgent Bills team should handle the Dolphins easily. Even J-Loss on the road can beat the Miami secondary. For some odd reason, money is coming in on the Dolphins....praying this line goes to 2.5.
• Cleveland +10 Pittsburgh-This game has the potential to be a shootout. Can the Browns keep up? With momentum on their side, I'm expecting a close game here.
• New Orleans -11.5 St. Louis-I picked the Saints to represent the NFC before the season. Starting 0-4, things looked bleak. Now? They flipped the switch! Brees looks like the QB of last year and the offense is clicking. St. Louis is awful. It's quite embarrasing for your favorite team to be 0-9 after this week. Expect yet another blowout on the road. I'd take the Sains on any spread under 20.
• Atlanta +4 Carolina-John Joseph Harrington on the road. I'm on my way to another 4-10 week.
• Washington -3 Philly-The spread is easing towards 2.5 and may be worth a play there. Philly has serious offensive problems and the Skins play solid D.
• Minnesota +6 Green Bay-If the Vikes had a QB, they'd be a serious contender. They will have serious problems scoring against a good Packer defense, but I expect a close game.
• Cincy +4.5 Baltimore-It's official; I'm going down with the ship on the Bengals. How is it that they are getting 4.5 against a bad Ravens team? I like the Bengals in an overdue upset here.
• Chicago -3.5 Oakland-It's a good idea to not pick the Raiders anymore this season.
• Dallas -1 NY Giants-I've been back and forth on this game since the line came out. In the end, I'm taking the Cowboys offense to outslug the Giants offense. Should be a great game.
• Detroit +1 Arizona-Obvious game of the week, what am I missing?
• Indy -3.5 San Diego-Look for the Colts to be pissed. Again, has the potential to be an outstanding game.
• San Fran +10 Seattle-I hate this pick, but it's just too many points.

www.sexxpresso.com

This is the greatest idea I've seen in forever. Just came to Vegas.

GOOD LUCK!

Survival of the fittest, NFL recap West Coast Style

Let's be honest, Week 9 was b-b-b-brutal for everybody I know. Usually by about week 5 or 6 I absolutely hit the wall in wagering. By Week 5 or 6 of an NFL season, I feel like I know who is good and end up making somewhere between 7 and 192 bets...winning approximately 1 of them. Bad news and good news after last week. The bad news: I went 4-10 ATS overall. The good news: I've matured enough in my wagering career that I only ended up making 5 wagers for the week and ended up 2-3 (thanks to Pittsburgh last night). I survived THE bad week of NFL wagering. There might be other bad weeks, but that one should top them all. Unlike some years, I'm a survivor.

To recap last week, it was so very bad that I needed the J-E-T-S and Browns to narrowly beat their respective spreads to achieve half of my weekly win total. TPC, the Midwestern Flavor, gained 2 games on me by going 6-8. Riveting competition. Overall standings:
West Coast: 66-56-8
Midwestern Flavor: 56-66-8

As far as the big game goes, the Pats proved in the end they were the superior team. Can we go ahead and say 16-0? If this doesn't happen I may be shocked. If it weren't for the lopsided officiating, the Pats would've won the game going away. Speaking of such, my point here is that championship teams overcome bad officiating. Think back to the Seahawks-Steelers Super Bowl. What was everybody's #1 complaint about the game? The officials handed the game to the Steelers? Yeah, not exactly...but my point: good teams overcome even unfair obstacles. You think Tiger Woods packs it in after his ball inexplicably takes a bad bounce off of a cart path? That's the biggest difference between greatness and just being good. I'm done ranting.

Week 10 preview: Several outstanding games on tap.

• Cleveland at Pittsburgh: Huge divisional game. The Steelers should have somewhat of a letdown after their big win Monday Night. Look for a close game here.
• Philly at Washington: Will be competitive, but definitely not the most exciting football in Week 10
• Atlanta at Carlolina: pass
• St. Louis at New Orleans: Seriously, the Rams have another injury? Little out for the season? This team is cursed.
• Buffalo at Miami: should be close...can the Fins get their 1st win?
• Denver at KC: most years this is good, pass this time.
• Jacksonville at Tennessee: definitely must see (assuming Garrard is back and nobody else gets arrested).
• Minnesota at Green Bay: big divisional game...and the best RB since LDT. And don't the Packers have somebody famous at QB?
• Cincy at Baltimore: 2 non-playoff teams, should be a good game though.
• Dallas at NY Giants: game of the week, enough said.
• Detroit at Arizona: strangely, I'm looking forward to this game. Who would've thought that before this year?
• Chicago at Oakland: PASS
• Indy at San Diego: co-game of the week. Indy has New England and SD back-to-back...this has to be the toughest scheduling ever.
• San Fran at Seattle: turdfest on Monday Night

For no other reason except to say it's GAMBLING SEASON as college football winds down with outstanding games, college basketball begins, and the NFL is in full swing...here are my college picks this week. Note: I'm 0-1-1 on real money games wagered this season.

1. Colorado -5.5 Iowa St

2. Air Force -2.5 Notre Dame

3. Alabama -4.5 Miss St.

4. Stanford +10 Wash St.

5. E. Carolina -7 Marshall

6. Texas Tech +6 Texas

7. Oklahoma -37.5 Baylor

8. Kansas -5 Okla. St.

9. Florida -6 S. Carolina

10. C. Florida -20 UAB

11. Navy -15 North Texas

Notice: I'm not playing all of these picks, but I'm guaranteeing at least 6-5 or your money back. It's quite OK to play favorites in college football...this is why the sportsbooks love the fact that more money comes in on NFL games than college.

Week 9 - TPC

Sorry for the late entry and the following quick picks. I've had a very busy week and didn't have the time to post until now. Sorry they're so late. Maybe picking with my gut will actually help me this week!

Washington -3.5 @ New York Jets
Kellen Clemens, I'd like for you to meet the Redskins' defense. Oh by the way, you'll be playing without your go-to receiver, Laveranues Coles. Yeah, good luck with that. Never been so scared of a half point but the Skins should win a close one...20-16 sounds right.

Kansas City -2.5 vs Green Bay
I like KC at home. Especially against a very lucky Packers team. KC wins late and Favre throws 4 picks.

Tampa Bay -3.5 vs Arizona
What happens when you're picking in a hurry? You take the favorites....there's definitely a theme developing here. Another half point that scares the shit out of me but I like the Bucs by a TD.

Carolina +4.5 @ Tennessee
Finally, an underdog. I like my Titans to win this game but give me the points on a late cover. LET'S GO TITS....LET'S GO TITS....

Atlanta -3 vs San Francisco
San Fran is too banged up to be taken seriously. Their offense has been abysmal and they'll probably be without Frank Gore this week. If he does play I don't anticipate him being very effective. That leaves us with Maurice Hicks and Michael Robinson. I'd actually take Joey Harrington in this case. Hate to give the points but Falcons win a close game (possible push) that nobody will be watching.

New Orleans -3.5 vs Jacksonville
I had Jacksonville penciled in to win this game outright until I remembered Quinn Gray is still starting for the Jags. I expect the Saints to load the box up with 12 people and dare Gray to beat them. No way that happens. Saints punch the Jags in the mouth early and coast to an easy win.

Detroit -3 vs Denver
I hope Mike Martz is smart enough to run Kevin Jones 30 times against the horrible run D of the Broncos, but I'm worried that might happen. If Martz gets pass happy, the Lions will lose this game. And to think someone is going to give this guy another head coaching gig. That's scary. Lions in a close one (another possible push).

Cincinnati -1 @ Buffalo
At some point the Bengals have to start winning games, don't they? They should kill this Bills team....should being the operative word. Go Bengals!

San Diego -7 @ Minnesota
My gut tells me to take the points but I can't bring myself to do it. Chargers should destroy the Vikes. Man, I really should take the points!! Nope....gonna stick with SD to win big.

Seattle +2 @ Cleveland
All signs point to a Cleveland win, but I think this is where the clock strikes midnight for the Browns. They have been playing out of their minds and there's no way they can keep this up. Seattle wins by a late FG - should be an interesting game either way.

Indianapolis +4.5 vs New England
Let me get this straight. I get the defending Super Bowl champs at home, undefeated, and playing the best football they've ever played, on both sides of the ball no less, AND I get 4.5 points??? I just hope this games turns out to be as good as advertised. Indy will finally show everyone that the Pats are mere mortals and can be stopped with a good pass rush and great secondary play. No way the Pats continue this dominance with a blatant refusal to run the ball. Indy wins by double-digits. CROWN THEIR ASSES!

Oakland -3 vs Houston
Sage Rosenfels, Kevin Walter, Ron Dayne, Adimchinobi Echemandu, and Andre Johnson will all play prominent roles in this game. I'll take my chances with the Black and Silver. I do have one prediction for this game - RB Justin Fargas of Oakland will establish himself as the man in Oakland and will be the hottest waiver-wire pickup of the week in fantasy football. Write that down.

Dallas -3 @ Philadelphia
Dallas will reassert themselves as the best team in the NFC. I don't even see how this game is close. Cowboys by two TDs.

Baltimore +8.5 @ Pittsburgh
I don't get this line? What about this game says blowout? Two run-first teams, two really good defenses, a ball control offense that will make paint drying seem more exciting? Give me the points and I'll watch the highlights Tuesday morning.

Sorry for the late, quick picks. I'll try to do better next time.

TPC

Week 9 - Rich

Let's face it, last week's football may have been the worst of the year. There were way too many blowouts and very few watchable games. As it turned out, probably the best game turned out to be the Packers-Broncos Monday Night game. How the Broncos did not win the game 17-13 is still beyond me. Blame Cutler? Shanahan? The end of the Broncos final drive was so poorly managed that you would have thought Dennis Green took over coaching the Broncos. Taking the Broncos -3, it made me absolutely sick. Last week's wagers: Cleveland -3 (W), New England -16.5 (W), Oakland +7.5 (W), Cincy +3.5 (L), Denver -3 (L). Again, bet on New England, against the Rams. 15-1 ATS on the year. This is not rocket science. Sadly, the Lambs have the week off this week....and the Pats....I think I heard they might be playing this week?

Pats. New England, so far this year, looks like the most dominant team in history. They are a machine. Flawless. This team has incredible talent AND is pissed off by the whole cheating scandal. I've never seen anything like it.

Colts. Indy, in most years, would look like a team that nobody could possibly stop from repeating as Super Bowl Champs. Offensively, they are still as good as anybody and their defense has improved dramatically since the return of Bob Sanders. Throw in a raucous crowd at the RCA dome, and you have one of the most unbeatable teams in history.

I'm going on record as saying this is the first ever Super Bowl played in November. Winner take all. Home field advantage is at stake halfway through the season. Maybe the Pats could come back to the RCA dome and beat the Colts in January, but there's not a snowball's chance in hell that the Colts can takeout the Pats in Foxboro in January. It's usually not wise to overhype one game, but when the stakes are this high and the rivalry this good, how can you not? This is the most anticipated regular season game since San Fran-NY Giants in 1990. Both teams were 10-1 entering that game and squared off on Monday Night Football. San Fran ended up winning the game 7-3. That game was a little strange, so hopefully this game will be more "normal".

Over/Under: 56. This is the highest NFL total I can recall. Even with that said, how does this game not go over the total? Regardless, the only thing we can't guarantee is that the game itself will live up to the hype. If they played 10 times (at Indy), I'd take the Pats by double digits 5 out of 10. The Pats would win by a TD or so 1 or 2; Pats by a FG 1 or 2. My take is that New England beats Indy outright 8 out of 10 times. They are just that good.

Week 8 picks

• NY Jets +3.5 Washington-As much as I hate the 1 win J-E-T-S, the Skins on the road don't blow out anybody. Even without Coles, the J-E-T-S can keep it C-L-O-S-E.
• Kansas City -2 Green Bay-The Packers play solid defense and the Chiefs quietly play solid D as well. This game should be low scoring, and barring another Favre miracle, the Chiefs win a close game.
• Arizona +3.5 Tampa-I think I've figured it out. Take the Cardinals as the underdog, but bet against them as the favorite. Seems to work pretty well so far this season.
• Carolina +4.5 Tennessee-Tough game to pick. The Titans are clearly the better team and I hate Testaverde's old ass, but this game (as are most Titans games) will be close. Titans win another game by 3-4 points.
• San Fran +3 Atlanta-I'm not giving points with the Falcons against ANYBODY.
• Jacksonville +3.5 New Orleans-I actually like this game a lot. The Jags are not getting any respect and are quite solid. New Orleans is starting to turn their season around but will stumble against a good AFC opponent. Jags win outright by a TD.
• Denver +3 Detroit-The Lions are a huge surprise this year. Who knew Kitna was right when he said they would win 10 this year? KJ should have a big day against the Broncos run D, but this is a do or die game for the Broncos. At minimum, they should keep this one close.
• Cincy -1 Buffalo-I've gotten burned a few times this year by the Bungles. This is a coin flip of a game, but I'm going to take what I think to be the better team here.
• San Diego -7 Minnesota-No brainer, the Chargers will have absolutely no problem with the QBless Vikes. Chargers by 20.
• Cleveland -2 Seattle-Another game that I like a lot. The Browns are quietly putting together a good season. The offense is clicking, and at home, they may blow the Seahawks out of the water. The Lions and Browns are good this year...and the Cubs made the playoffs. Unbelievable.
• New England -4.5 Indy-Biggest game in years...unfortunately New England may put up 50 on the Colts defense. Look for New England to lead most of the game by 10-14 with the Colts constantly trying to keep up. 8-0 ATS....no way I'm bailing on the Pats in the greatest "F you" game of the season.
• Houston +3 Oakland-No Matt Schaub OR Andre Johnson. Unfortunately Oakland is completely unimpressive offensively. If I had to guess, Oakland wins this game by a FG. Thankfully, nobody will point a gun to my head and make me watch this game.
• Philly +3 Dallas-With everybody talking about the Pats-Colts game, this is secretly going to be the best game of Week 9. Huge game in the NFC East. Thankfully, it's on Sunday Night instead of 1:00 while the Pats-Colts are playing. This game could be end of the season for the Eagles. I'm taking the desperate Eagles over a more talented Cowboys team.
• Pittsburgh -8.5 Baltimore-I have a horrible record on MNF this year, but am confident in this pick. The Steelers will blow out the Ravens on national television. Can you say exposed?

Good luck in Week 9