I said I needed a 10-3 week to get back into this thing and I almost got it. I ended up going 8-5 this week, not too shabby. There is one problem though...Rich also went 8-5. Let's chalk this one up as a moral victory.
As for this next week. You can't turn on your tv without hearing about the Pats/Colts game so we know that should be a good one. But, on paper, there aren't too many other games to get excited about. That is, until you dig a little deeper. Nine of the 14 games, win or lose, will influence a division lead. While that might not make each game any more exciting, it will make for an interesting Monday morning where we could potentially have the following division leaders: Arizona, Detroit, Tampa Bay, New Orleans (tie), Kansas City (current division leader - wow), San Diego (tie), NY Giants (tie). That might very well make Skip Bayless' head explode or render Emmith Smith speachless....or hopefully, God willing, both.
At least St. Louis and Miami both have byes so they can't lose (or win). Can we just give them both losses and get it over with? Too bad they don't play eachother this season. That would challenge Pats/Colts for game of the year.
Weekly Totals
Rich - 8-5
TPC - 8-5
YTD Totals
Rich: 62-46-8
TPC: 50-58-8
TPC
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Friday, October 26, 2007
Week 8 - TPC
After another sub-par week, it's time to buckle down and actually pick some winners. This is what I get for picking so many favorites. I have to admit though, this is a lot tougher than I thought. I figured I knew plenty about the NFL to be able to successfully pick winners ATS (against the spread). Boy was I wrong. At this rate, I'm not even sure my record would be above .500 if I were just picking outright winners. This proves just because I can spit out just about any random stat in football, I can't make sense of the sport on a weekly basis. I'm not giving up here...I've just come to a Zen-like realization that I don't know near as much as I think I know. Man that was tough to say.
I feel better now. I feel rejuvenated, reinvigorated, rededicated, and slightly reintoxicated. I'm ready for a 10-3 week!!
Cleveland -3 @ St. Louis
Rams fans, think back to when the schedule came out. Admit it, you looked right past this game as an easy win on your way to a 10-6 season. I'm just as guilty as the rest of you. I would have mortgaged my house on the fact that, at week 8, the Rams would have a better record than the Browns. But somehow, and I have clue how he's done it, QB Derek Anderson has turned this team into an offensive juggernaut. They're 7th in total offense (354 yards/game) and 4th in scoring offense (27.8 pts/gm). At the other end of the spectrum are the Rams...30th in total offense (274 yds/gm) and dead last in scoring (11.3 pts/gm). The only thing the Rams lead the league in are turnovers with 23. Granted this team has been decimated by injuries but an Arena League team could put up a better fight than this. The return of RB Steven Jackson can only help the hapless offense but the injury bug has struck again. It looks like DE Leonard Little and C Brett Romberg will miss the game...definitely not what the doctor ordered for the Rams. Regardless of what the Rams can muster on offense, their defense won't be able to stop the aerial attack of the Browns. Anderson to WR Braylon Edwards should be a reoccurring theme Sunday. At least we won't have to watch this massacre on tv as the game surely won't sell out...Browns win big.
Detroit +5 @ Chicago
I'm only taking the points here because I think this game could turn out to be a 34-31 slugfest. Both teams are giving up way to many points to be taken seriously. We've previously discussed the demise of the once proud Chicago D, but Detroit's defense is just plain bad. Hell, they gave up 56 points to a Philly team that, without that 56 point game, would be averaging 12 points/game. We're talking Rams territory there. Look for the worst 4-2 team in football to fall at Soldier Field. Da Bears in a close game that I will not be watching.
Indianapolis -6.5 @ Carolina
So let me get this straight...the defending Super Bowl champs are undefeated while playing a tough schedule, they've overcome key injuries, and they've never played better football (3rd ranked offense and 3rd ranked defense) and nobody is talking about them?!?! And they might actually be underdogs next week to New England AT HOME?!? How does this happen? They only way they don't cover this game is if they do what I just did...look ahead to next week. I say they use the Panthers as an example and open up a can on them to set the tone for next week. I can't wait to see the line for Indy/NE - I'm pretty sure you already know which way I'll be going. Colts roll through Carolina on their way home.
New York Giants -9.5 @ Miami (London)
What's that you tell me? There's a game being played in London this week? Am I supposed to give a shit? Are the broadcasters going to have annoying accents? Will there be soccer-style chants in the stands? Better yet, will there be soccer-style fights in the stands? Even better, will there actually be people in the stands? Will any of the players be able to pass through customs? Is Ricky Williams still with the Dolphins? Does he know he can't bring a duffle bag full of pot onto a plane? So many questions, so little time. Roger Godell's plan to take over the world is almost complete. Although, I'm not sure why he decided to send the Giants and Dolphins as ambassadors. Giants roll in a laugher that nobody will be watching.
Oakland +7.5 @ Tennessee
Tennessee's average margin of victory this year....7.25. Coincidence? I think not. This is a lot of points to lay even though the Titans should win this game easily. If not for my rejuvenation and reintoxication, this would be a classic example of me taking the favorite just because I think they should win easily. Well, I'm not falling for that one anymore. Titans win by 7.25 points and Oakland barely covers.
Philadelphia -1 @ Minnesota
As long as the Vikings keep spoon-feeding the ball to Adrian Peterson, they will continue to struggle. There's no denying this kid is special so it's baffling why the Vikes don't get him more involved. Maybe they're trying to win the Matt Ryan/Andre Woodson/Brian Brohm sweepstakes. That's the only way I can explain it...they're tanking. And why wouldn't they really? They're not going anywhere this year and they need a franchise QB (Tavaris Jackson is clearly not the answer). Can you imagine the potential of this team with Peterson and Matt Ryan running the offense for the next 7-10 years? Minnesota's coaching staff obviously can. Philly in a low-scoring, boring game.
Cincinnati +3.5 vs Pittsburgh
I've all but written off the Bengals this season and had Pittsburgh pegged in this game. Then I dug a little deeper. The Steelers have been struggling on the road lately and the Bengals have played well at home. Coming off a big road loss to Denver, I just don't think Pittsburgh will be up for this game. Plus, Cincy is in a must-win situation. Desperation + Disappointment = Bengals win. See, I'm still an idiot.
Buffalo +3 @ New York Jets
The 1-6 Jets have done nothing to make me think they can beat anyone, let alone a team that has already beaten them once this year. This game could go either way and I could care less. Moving on....
San Diego -9.5 vs Houston
Two teams headed in opposite directions. I hate to give this many points because I think the San Diego players can't help but be distracted. But a 3 touchdown San Diego win feels about right.
Jacksonville +3.5 @ Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay -3.5 vs Jacksonville
I just have one question...who the hell is Quinn Gray? All I know is he looked absolutely atrocious last week. The half point scares the hell out of me.....but......nope I can't do it. I can't take the Jags, not when Quinn Gray is prominently involved. That half point might come back to bite me on the ass but I can't rely on Quinn if I want to hit 10-3 this week. Bucs win 10-6.
New Orleans -1 @ San Francisco
This is that obvious game of the week the Sports Guy likes to talk about. So what do I do? I take the obvious team of course. Like I said last week, the Saints are going to make a run at the playoffs and the 49ers don't pose a threat to a Saints team that's firing on all cylinders. Reggie Bush is proving my point though that he's not an every down back. He's just not built for it. Saints roll on their way to a 9-7 record.
Washington +16.5 @ New England
This is the best defense the Patriots have faced all year, hands down. So, what do you get when you pit the #5 ranked D (Washington) against the #4 ranked D (Pats)? You get a closer game than most people think. The Patriots should still win this game, but a 10 point margin sounds right. One thing I wanted to point out about the Pats. There's no way a Belichick coached team will ever get caught looking past an opponent. They might get caught spying on an opponent but never past one, not even with Indy on tap next week. But, what I do think will happen this game is Washington will bring their smash-mouth style of football to Foxboro and give the Pats all they can handle. This is the best possible scenario if Indy is going to have any chance of winning next week. They'll get a Patriot team that could be banged up and beaten down and that could make all the difference. I sure can't wait to find out!
Denver -3 vs Green Bay
What's Denver's one glaring weakness? That's right, it's their run defense. What's the single worst aspect of Green Bay's offense? That's right, it's their running game. If the Pack could only establish a running game, which the won't, they'd have a shot at winning this game, which they won't. Broncos by a td in a game where, for 3+ hours, we'll have to hear the Monday night gang sing the praises of one Brett Lorenzo Favre. Maybe their special "celebrity" guest will be Brett's old high school coach...gee that would be swell! You know what would be better? How about interviewing Favre's old pharmacist that helped feed his addiction to painkillers? Now there's a man I'd love to meet....
TPC
I feel better now. I feel rejuvenated, reinvigorated, rededicated, and slightly reintoxicated. I'm ready for a 10-3 week!!
Cleveland -3 @ St. Louis
Rams fans, think back to when the schedule came out. Admit it, you looked right past this game as an easy win on your way to a 10-6 season. I'm just as guilty as the rest of you. I would have mortgaged my house on the fact that, at week 8, the Rams would have a better record than the Browns. But somehow, and I have clue how he's done it, QB Derek Anderson has turned this team into an offensive juggernaut. They're 7th in total offense (354 yards/game) and 4th in scoring offense (27.8 pts/gm). At the other end of the spectrum are the Rams...30th in total offense (274 yds/gm) and dead last in scoring (11.3 pts/gm). The only thing the Rams lead the league in are turnovers with 23. Granted this team has been decimated by injuries but an Arena League team could put up a better fight than this. The return of RB Steven Jackson can only help the hapless offense but the injury bug has struck again. It looks like DE Leonard Little and C Brett Romberg will miss the game...definitely not what the doctor ordered for the Rams. Regardless of what the Rams can muster on offense, their defense won't be able to stop the aerial attack of the Browns. Anderson to WR Braylon Edwards should be a reoccurring theme Sunday. At least we won't have to watch this massacre on tv as the game surely won't sell out...Browns win big.
Detroit +5 @ Chicago
I'm only taking the points here because I think this game could turn out to be a 34-31 slugfest. Both teams are giving up way to many points to be taken seriously. We've previously discussed the demise of the once proud Chicago D, but Detroit's defense is just plain bad. Hell, they gave up 56 points to a Philly team that, without that 56 point game, would be averaging 12 points/game. We're talking Rams territory there. Look for the worst 4-2 team in football to fall at Soldier Field. Da Bears in a close game that I will not be watching.
Indianapolis -6.5 @ Carolina
So let me get this straight...the defending Super Bowl champs are undefeated while playing a tough schedule, they've overcome key injuries, and they've never played better football (3rd ranked offense and 3rd ranked defense) and nobody is talking about them?!?! And they might actually be underdogs next week to New England AT HOME?!? How does this happen? They only way they don't cover this game is if they do what I just did...look ahead to next week. I say they use the Panthers as an example and open up a can on them to set the tone for next week. I can't wait to see the line for Indy/NE - I'm pretty sure you already know which way I'll be going. Colts roll through Carolina on their way home.
New York Giants -9.5 @ Miami (London)
What's that you tell me? There's a game being played in London this week? Am I supposed to give a shit? Are the broadcasters going to have annoying accents? Will there be soccer-style chants in the stands? Better yet, will there be soccer-style fights in the stands? Even better, will there actually be people in the stands? Will any of the players be able to pass through customs? Is Ricky Williams still with the Dolphins? Does he know he can't bring a duffle bag full of pot onto a plane? So many questions, so little time. Roger Godell's plan to take over the world is almost complete. Although, I'm not sure why he decided to send the Giants and Dolphins as ambassadors. Giants roll in a laugher that nobody will be watching.
Oakland +7.5 @ Tennessee
Tennessee's average margin of victory this year....7.25. Coincidence? I think not. This is a lot of points to lay even though the Titans should win this game easily. If not for my rejuvenation and reintoxication, this would be a classic example of me taking the favorite just because I think they should win easily. Well, I'm not falling for that one anymore. Titans win by 7.25 points and Oakland barely covers.
Philadelphia -1 @ Minnesota
As long as the Vikings keep spoon-feeding the ball to Adrian Peterson, they will continue to struggle. There's no denying this kid is special so it's baffling why the Vikes don't get him more involved. Maybe they're trying to win the Matt Ryan/Andre Woodson/Brian Brohm sweepstakes. That's the only way I can explain it...they're tanking. And why wouldn't they really? They're not going anywhere this year and they need a franchise QB (Tavaris Jackson is clearly not the answer). Can you imagine the potential of this team with Peterson and Matt Ryan running the offense for the next 7-10 years? Minnesota's coaching staff obviously can. Philly in a low-scoring, boring game.
Cincinnati +3.5 vs Pittsburgh
I've all but written off the Bengals this season and had Pittsburgh pegged in this game. Then I dug a little deeper. The Steelers have been struggling on the road lately and the Bengals have played well at home. Coming off a big road loss to Denver, I just don't think Pittsburgh will be up for this game. Plus, Cincy is in a must-win situation. Desperation + Disappointment = Bengals win. See, I'm still an idiot.
Buffalo +3 @ New York Jets
The 1-6 Jets have done nothing to make me think they can beat anyone, let alone a team that has already beaten them once this year. This game could go either way and I could care less. Moving on....
San Diego -9.5 vs Houston
Two teams headed in opposite directions. I hate to give this many points because I think the San Diego players can't help but be distracted. But a 3 touchdown San Diego win feels about right.
Tampa Bay -3.5 vs Jacksonville
I just have one question...who the hell is Quinn Gray? All I know is he looked absolutely atrocious last week. The half point scares the hell out of me.....but......nope I can't do it. I can't take the Jags, not when Quinn Gray is prominently involved. That half point might come back to bite me on the ass but I can't rely on Quinn if I want to hit 10-3 this week. Bucs win 10-6.
New Orleans -1 @ San Francisco
This is that obvious game of the week the Sports Guy likes to talk about. So what do I do? I take the obvious team of course. Like I said last week, the Saints are going to make a run at the playoffs and the 49ers don't pose a threat to a Saints team that's firing on all cylinders. Reggie Bush is proving my point though that he's not an every down back. He's just not built for it. Saints roll on their way to a 9-7 record.
Washington +16.5 @ New England
This is the best defense the Patriots have faced all year, hands down. So, what do you get when you pit the #5 ranked D (Washington) against the #4 ranked D (Pats)? You get a closer game than most people think. The Patriots should still win this game, but a 10 point margin sounds right. One thing I wanted to point out about the Pats. There's no way a Belichick coached team will ever get caught looking past an opponent. They might get caught spying on an opponent but never past one, not even with Indy on tap next week. But, what I do think will happen this game is Washington will bring their smash-mouth style of football to Foxboro and give the Pats all they can handle. This is the best possible scenario if Indy is going to have any chance of winning next week. They'll get a Patriot team that could be banged up and beaten down and that could make all the difference. I sure can't wait to find out!
Denver -3 vs Green Bay
What's Denver's one glaring weakness? That's right, it's their run defense. What's the single worst aspect of Green Bay's offense? That's right, it's their running game. If the Pack could only establish a running game, which the won't, they'd have a shot at winning this game, which they won't. Broncos by a td in a game where, for 3+ hours, we'll have to hear the Monday night gang sing the praises of one Brett Lorenzo Favre. Maybe their special "celebrity" guest will be Brett's old high school coach...gee that would be swell! You know what would be better? How about interviewing Favre's old pharmacist that helped feed his addiction to painkillers? Now there's a man I'd love to meet....
TPC
Thursday, October 25, 2007
WEEK 8 - Rich
- Cleveland -3 St. Louis: I already have action on the Browns but am starting to have second thoughts on this. Bulger may have a breakout week. Jackson appears to be back for this game. The Browns can't play defense and haven't played well on the road. The Rams are way overdue....so yes indeed, give me the Browns. Over 45.5 is definitely looking good here.
- Chicago -5 Detroit: 5 points is a lot, but I definitely like the Bears to win this game. Coming off a big road win, the momentum should continue this week.
- Indianapolis -6.5 Carolina: On paper, the Colts should trounce the Panthers. Will they get caught looking ahead? My sources say no.
- NY Giants -9.5 Miami: An absolute no brainer here. The Giants offense absolutely cannot be stopped by the Fins. Slowly, I may be jumping on the Giants bandwagon....not there yet.
- Oakland +7.5 Tennessee: Do the Titans blowout anybody? This spread is way too high, VY or no VY.
- Minnesota +1 Philly: Possibly the toughest game on the board to handicap. The Eagles, on paper, are the better team. The Vikes at home will let Peterson loose....Vikes win on a late FG.
- Cincy +3.5 Pittsburgh: Rudi is out. The Steelers offense will put up 24-28 points against the awful Bengals defense. So what? This is a do-or-die game for the Bengals and at minimum this game will be close. Definitely taking the home dog here.
- Buffalo +3 NY Jets: Worst game of the week. I've spend the last 5 minutes trying to contemplate what the right play is here. The J-E-T-S are A-W-F-U-L; the Bills on the road??? This game could potentially be very competitive, but my Sunday Ticket won't touch that game.
- San Diego -9.5 Houston: I'm not sure how it's possible this line exists. As of right now the game "could" be played in San Diego this weekend. I'm assuming this line is indicative of a game played there? Even if this game is played in Kosovo, I'm taking the Chargers here. Huge difference in class here. (If this line is taken off the board and put back on due to a change of venue, this pick did not exist.)
- Jacksonville +3.5 Tampa Bay: Over/under of 32....that's all you need to know here. I'm not sure you can really make the over/under low enough. Because of the obvious lack of scoring (even with Garrard out) I'm taking the Jags. Bucs 3 Jags 0.
- New Orleans -1 San Francisco: This seems too obvious. "America's Team" seems to be getting their legs back and San Francisco is too beat up. Somehow, I can't make myself go up to the betting window and put my hard earned money on them....I can't put my finger on it.
- New England -16.5 Washington: With how well the Skins play defense, I can't believe this line is so high. Still, how do you pick against the most impressive team of my generation? The spread could be 27 and I'd still consider taking New England against 80% of the NFL. 7-0 ATS....riding the wave baby.
- Denver -3 Green Bay: It's a shame the Broncos beat Pittsburgh last week. I had this game circled on my calendar. If the Broncos don't pull that game out, at best this game would be a pick. Denver by double digits....and maybe this will cheer up Denver sports fans.
Breeder's Cup Saturday! If I have time, I'll post my wagers. Good luck.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
NFL RE-CAP (West Coast Style)
Looking at last week's games, there really wasn't much to get excited about. The matchups didn't really get me that excited. Atlanta-New Orleans, KC-Oakland, NE-Miami, Tampa-Detroit....those to me were the worst ones. However, looking back it was actually a pretty good week of football. Houston made an improbable comeback only to blow it in the last minute of the game, Arizona made it very exciting down the stretch, Chicago-Philly turned out to be one of the better games of the year (although both offenses officially suck). And to cap it all off on Sunday Night, Denver came through in the clutch to knock off the Steelers. Great week of football...even though Jacksonville-Indy didn't live up to it's billing.
My competition, TPC, again got caught up in playing the favorites. 6-8 on the week, but absolutely nailed his STL-Seattle pick:
Seattle wins 42-6.
OK, so Seattle only scored 33....but c'mon that was pretty damned close.
My picks started off well, but I couldn't close out the week with a W in Sunday or Monday Night Football. 8-6 on the week. Real money wagering I went 4-1. Pats -16.5 (W), Seattle -8.5 (W), Cincy -6 (W), Baltimore/Buffalo U35 (W), Tennessee/Houston U38.5 (By far, L). I have one rule that I've been following pretty much all season. NO MATTER WHAT, bet the Pats and bet against the Rams. Together, you'd be 13-1 to this point if this was the only bet you made. I'm 14-8 in real money wagers for the year so as you can tell, it took me about 3 or 4 weeks to employ this strategery. I'm overdue for a bad week, but for those that want to ride the wave...
this week's live action includes:
Cleveland -3 St. Louis
Oakland +7.5 Tennessee
Cincy +3.5 Pittsburgh
New England -16.5 Washington (This might be where my strategery fails)
Denver -3 Green Bay (MNF)
.....and I'm still eyeballing some of the over/unders (waiting for a more accurate weather forecast----insert joke here)
STANDINGS
West Coast: 54-41-8
Midwestern Flavor: 42-53-8
World Series Game 1 is so unwatchable I'm flipping to Family Guy reruns.....I'm out.
My competition, TPC, again got caught up in playing the favorites. 6-8 on the week, but absolutely nailed his STL-Seattle pick:
Seattle wins 42-6.
OK, so Seattle only scored 33....but c'mon that was pretty damned close.
My picks started off well, but I couldn't close out the week with a W in Sunday or Monday Night Football. 8-6 on the week. Real money wagering I went 4-1. Pats -16.5 (W), Seattle -8.5 (W), Cincy -6 (W), Baltimore/Buffalo U35 (W), Tennessee/Houston U38.5 (By far, L). I have one rule that I've been following pretty much all season. NO MATTER WHAT, bet the Pats and bet against the Rams. Together, you'd be 13-1 to this point if this was the only bet you made. I'm 14-8 in real money wagers for the year so as you can tell, it took me about 3 or 4 weeks to employ this strategery. I'm overdue for a bad week, but for those that want to ride the wave...
this week's live action includes:
Cleveland -3 St. Louis
Oakland +7.5 Tennessee
Cincy +3.5 Pittsburgh
New England -16.5 Washington (This might be where my strategery fails)
Denver -3 Green Bay (MNF)
.....and I'm still eyeballing some of the over/unders (waiting for a more accurate weather forecast----insert joke here)
STANDINGS
West Coast: 54-41-8
Midwestern Flavor: 42-53-8
World Series Game 1 is so unwatchable I'm flipping to Family Guy reruns.....I'm out.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Week 7 Picks - TPC
Quick picks this week....
Washington -9 vs Arizona
Who's starting for the Cards this week, Neil Lomax? They are so beaten up I'd give 14 points in this game. By the way, is it just me or is Brenda Warner borderline hot now that she got rid of the buzz cut?? Sorry...it's the painkillers talking.
New Orleans -9 vs Atlanta
The Byron Leftwich era in Atlanta has officially begun. While this is a ton of points to give, I say the Saints open up a can on the Falcons this week. Saints by double-digits.
Baltimore - 3 @ Buffalo
Trent Edwards, meet the Baltimore Ravens' defense. You'll be seeing a lot of them this week. Look for Kyle Boller (fantasy alert!) to pick apart the Bills D...I can't believe I said that. Ravens roll.
Dallas -9.5 vs Minnesota
It's official, I'm taking all the damn favorites. Never a good sign! I would take the Vikes in this game if they didn't come out and publicly say Peterson will still split carries with Chester Taylor. Nobody can convince me this is a good idea. Cowboys win big in a statement game.
New England -16.5 @ Miami
The Dolphins generally play the Pats tough at home but I just can't bring myself to taking Cleo Lemon and Marty Booker. This game could get ugly early. Pats pound the fish...or mammals...or whatever.
San Francisco +9.5 @ New York Giants
Finally, an underdog. I like for the 9ers to keep this game close. The Giants should pull away late, but I'm looking for a late cover here. Here's to gambling...WOO HOO!
Tampa Bay+1 @ Detroit
Tough game here. My gut says go with the home team but Tampa just seems to find ways to win. I think they'll eek out another win this week. This feels like a 17-14 type game to me.
Tennessee -1 @ Houston
This game depends entirely on if VY is playing. Last reports say he's clos to playing so I'm going out on a limb here. Mark my words, though. If Vince doesn't play, the Titans will not win this game.
Oakland -1 vs Kansas City
KC looked rejuvenated last week but there's no way in hell I'm taking the road team in this rivalry. This should actually be an entertaining game between two very bad teams.
Cincinnati -6 vs New York Jets
This game is a fork in the road for these two teams, and they're inevitably headed in opposite directions. Not even Chad "Dead Man Walking" Pennington will be able to pick apart the Bengals' paper-thin defense. Look for Cincy to right the ship and pick up a much needed win.
Philadelphia -5 vs Chicago
To stick with the them of taking the home favorites, I'll take my chances with Philly in this one. I can see it now - Brian Westbrook pulls an Adrian Peterson and destroys any fantasy team in his path. I sure hope I'm not playing the team this week that owns him. Iggles by a td.
Seattle -9 vs St. Louis
Seattle wins 42-6.
Pittsburgh -3 @ Denver
I really don't think this game will be close. Big Ben is having a breakout year (another one) the Steelers look like a legit threat in the AFC. Funny but I'd feel more comfortable taking the Broncos if they still had Jake Plummer. Hmmm.....
Indianapolis -3 @ Jacksonville
This game should be close but the Colts will make David Garrard beat them....he's not capable of doing that. As long as Indy stops the run, they will roll. 21-13 Ponies sounds about right.
Sorry for the quick picks....busy week. This could very well be the week I go 0-14. It is very possible.
TPC
Washington -9 vs Arizona
Who's starting for the Cards this week, Neil Lomax? They are so beaten up I'd give 14 points in this game. By the way, is it just me or is Brenda Warner borderline hot now that she got rid of the buzz cut?? Sorry...it's the painkillers talking.
New Orleans -9 vs Atlanta
The Byron Leftwich era in Atlanta has officially begun. While this is a ton of points to give, I say the Saints open up a can on the Falcons this week. Saints by double-digits.
Baltimore - 3 @ Buffalo
Trent Edwards, meet the Baltimore Ravens' defense. You'll be seeing a lot of them this week. Look for Kyle Boller (fantasy alert!) to pick apart the Bills D...I can't believe I said that. Ravens roll.
Dallas -9.5 vs Minnesota
It's official, I'm taking all the damn favorites. Never a good sign! I would take the Vikes in this game if they didn't come out and publicly say Peterson will still split carries with Chester Taylor. Nobody can convince me this is a good idea. Cowboys win big in a statement game.
New England -16.5 @ Miami
The Dolphins generally play the Pats tough at home but I just can't bring myself to taking Cleo Lemon and Marty Booker. This game could get ugly early. Pats pound the fish...or mammals...or whatever.
San Francisco +9.5 @ New York Giants
Finally, an underdog. I like for the 9ers to keep this game close. The Giants should pull away late, but I'm looking for a late cover here. Here's to gambling...WOO HOO!
Tampa Bay+1 @ Detroit
Tough game here. My gut says go with the home team but Tampa just seems to find ways to win. I think they'll eek out another win this week. This feels like a 17-14 type game to me.
Tennessee -1 @ Houston
This game depends entirely on if VY is playing. Last reports say he's clos to playing so I'm going out on a limb here. Mark my words, though. If Vince doesn't play, the Titans will not win this game.
Oakland -1 vs Kansas City
KC looked rejuvenated last week but there's no way in hell I'm taking the road team in this rivalry. This should actually be an entertaining game between two very bad teams.
Cincinnati -6 vs New York Jets
This game is a fork in the road for these two teams, and they're inevitably headed in opposite directions. Not even Chad "Dead Man Walking" Pennington will be able to pick apart the Bengals' paper-thin defense. Look for Cincy to right the ship and pick up a much needed win.
Philadelphia -5 vs Chicago
To stick with the them of taking the home favorites, I'll take my chances with Philly in this one. I can see it now - Brian Westbrook pulls an Adrian Peterson and destroys any fantasy team in his path. I sure hope I'm not playing the team this week that owns him. Iggles by a td.
Seattle -9 vs St. Louis
Seattle wins 42-6.
Pittsburgh -3 @ Denver
I really don't think this game will be close. Big Ben is having a breakout year (another one) the Steelers look like a legit threat in the AFC. Funny but I'd feel more comfortable taking the Broncos if they still had Jake Plummer. Hmmm.....
Indianapolis -3 @ Jacksonville
This game should be close but the Colts will make David Garrard beat them....he's not capable of doing that. As long as Indy stops the run, they will roll. 21-13 Ponies sounds about right.
Sorry for the quick picks....busy week. This could very well be the week I go 0-14. It is very possible.
TPC
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Lucky Week 7
A few very random thoughts before my Week 7 picks:
- I just spent the last 2 weeks in southern California. Perfect weather, gorgeous women, relaxing beaches. Maybe most people in the US can't afford to live specifically there, but in a very mobile country, is there any reason why so many people still live in cold, snowy, land-locked weather environments? I'm not beating up on my hometown (the Lou)....I'm talking about Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Michigan, BUFFALO??! I really don't get it. I've visited all of the above (except Buffalo) and have no real explanation for this. What do these places have to offer? Maybe I'm spoiled, but I just can't imagine living the rest of my life like that.
- The Colorado Rockies. If you saw their miraculous run in a movie, you'd never believe it. Facing unbelievable pressure and even a 5 day "break", they've managed against all odds to keep rolling. No team in history in any sport has ever made a run like this. In baseball especially, a run like this just doesn't happen. This is like playing roulette and needing to win 22 straight times to break even. Betting on red 22 straight times, it comes through every time (except once). At what point, if ever, do you bet on black? The AL winner will be favored probably at -150/-160 or so. Even though on paper the Indians or Red Sox are clearly better, how can you possibly bet against the Rockies at this point?
- Gambling tip that may or may not make sense: All 3 expansion teams won the World Series as considerable underdogs in their only appearances. Florida (twice) and Arizona.
- What kind of shape is baseball in when a somewhat awful Monday Night Football game draws a 3 times larger audience than an NLCS playoff game on the same night at the same time?
- "I can't fathom taking the Giants in this game." Yes, I said that about the Giants-Falcons game. I elected to put my money on John Joseph Harrington instead. No alcohol or drugs were involved.
- There are a few "sneaky" not awful NFL teams. Washington (this one is out of the bag), Minnesota (Peterson), Oakland (I never thought I'd say this in 2007), and Cleveland (surprisingly good offense). I'm not ready to throw Kansas City, Houston, or Detroit into this category. Tennessee and Tampa Bay are no longer sneaky.
- On the flip side, the over-rated teams appear to be: Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, NY Jets, Denver, and Baltimore. A huge difference in these teams from last year! The reason I mention this is ATS wagering. The general public maybe hasn't caught up to some of this yet.
ENOUGH.....time to make my picks for another victorious week over TPC.
- Arizona +9 Washington: The Cardinals were overdue for the disappointing game against Carolina. Now that people have abandoned the bandwagon, it's time for it to start rolling again (only leading to another fiery crash). Regardless of the QB situation, the Cards are not 9 points worse than the Skins. If Warner plays, maybe an upset special? Stay tuned.
- Atlanta +9 New Orleans: This spread is way too high. The Falcons are not as awful as they looked last week; the Saints aren't as good as they looked. The 9 point spread is a knee jerk reaction and is not reasonable. Crap....I just took John Joseph Harrington AGAIN.
- Baltimore -3 Buffalo: I don't care who plays QB for Baltimore, the Bills are not going to be able to score on Baltimore's D if they can't score on the friggin' Cowboys D on a Monday Night. Ravens (who I consider to be fairly over-rated) roll.
- Minnesota +9.5 Dallas: I'm 100% convinced of Peterson. He is the best RB to come out of a draft since LDT. There, I said it. The Boys will be looking to get their confidence back...and it could happen...but I'm betting Peterson opens up the Dallas D so that even Tarvaris Jackson can hit receivers. What a sight that will be!
- New England -16.5 Miami: Why on earth would you not take New England here? 6-0 ATS.
- NY Giants -9.5 San Fran: I'm not on the Giants bandwagon just yet. They still have serious defensive issues and a lousy head coach. However, the 49ers are banged up and the G-Men certainly do know how to score. Giants stomp the Niners.
- Tampa Bay +1 Detroit: I'm genuinely impressed by the work of Jon Gruden. This Bucs team looked awful last year and made very few improvements since then. Although unproven on the road, I feel this Bucs team is the dark horse in the NFC. In a wide open division, I'm taking them as division champs.
- Tennessee -1 Houston: I was having a tough time finding a game to bet on...until I came across this one. Look for VY to get back in the saddle and under 38.5 points. Do I smell a parlay?
- Oakland -1 Kansas City: Big rivalry game that the Chiefs have dominated for the last few years. Finally, the Raiders have a team to exact revenge on them. Look for LJ to struggle big time against the Raiders D. I'm pricing a 90% chance that this game (although competitive) will be very ugly. Raiders win in a crapfest.
- Cincinnati -6 NY Jets: I'm not sure I've ever been more excited to give 6 points with a 1-4 team. With a Jets team that can't even stop Philly's offense, this game should be over by halftime. Cincy wins 38-17.
- Chicago +5 Philly: I can't figure Philly out enough to give 5 points with them. The Bears were stunned last week and are nearly in "must win" mode. Maybe an upset brewing?
- Seattle -9 St. Louis: Maybe the Lambs could sign an arena football team to play offense for them? Seriously, I can't remember a more injured NFL team. I'm not betting on Seattle, merely betting against the 0-6, 1-5 ATS Lambs.
- Pittsburgh -3.5 Denver: Tricky game...it could end up being close. I would feel infinitely better about this if the spread was -3. The Steelers are clearly the better team, but playing on a cold Sunday Night in Denver is never easy. But then again, Denver is consumed by Rocky Mountain Fever....GO ROCKIES!
- Jacksonville +3 Indy: Monday Night Home Dog (AGAIN). Actually, that's not why I'm taking the Jags. Jacksonville tends to play the Colts very tough (especially at home). Both teams are playing very good football and this is a huge game in the division. This may be the only game next week I'm very excited for. Jags in an upset 23-20. Gambling note: The spread looks like it is heading for 3.5 or higher. If you want the Colts, get in now....if you want the Jags, wait until Monday.
There may not be many close games in Week 7, but who knows...it's the NFL!
Week 6 Results
A very anticlimactic finish for the two of us, but it's better than most weeks I've had. At least the NFL was more exciting this week than our picks. Here are some random thoughts on Week 6.
Weekly Totals
Rich - 5-6-2
TPC - 6-5-2
YTD Totals
Rich - 46-35-8
TPC - 36-45-8
Until next week....
TPC
- The Giants are a legit contender in the NFC. They beat up on a bad Falcons team but their defense has come together and looks very, very good.
- The Rams are the worst team in football. I honestly think all the injuries could save Linehan's job. Regardless, this hire was a complete and utter mistake. It's never too early to blow it up and start over.
- With a favorable schedule ahead, the Saints are going to make a run at a very winnable division and contend for a playoff spot.
- The Chargers are back with a vengeance. The rest of the AFC should be afraid of this team.
- Why do people keep kicking the ball to Devin Hester? I mean, seriously, I can't think of any circumstance where it would be ok to kick him the ball. Just kick the damn thing out of bounds and be done with it.
- Adrian Peterson will be, and currently is, the best player to come from the 2007 NFL draft. And, the Vikings have said he will continue to split carries with Chester Taylor. That's why the Vikings will continue to lose. That and abysmal QB play.
- The AFC is infinitely better than the NFC. We already knew that - NE/Dal helped solidify it.
- The Jags are the best team nobody knows about. Maybe Garrard was the answer in Jacksonville. Through 5 games he has not thrown a single INT.
- Vinny Testaverde is better than 75% of NFL quarterbacks....and he's 43!
- The Bears D is overrated. They've grown old quickly and can't stay healthy. But still, please keep kicking the ball to Devin Hester. A Hester return is one of the most exciting moments in any sport.
Weekly Totals
Rich - 5-6-2
TPC - 6-5-2
YTD Totals
Rich - 46-35-8
TPC - 36-45-8
Until next week....
TPC
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