Tuesday, July 10, 2007
World Series Picks - The People's Champ
ALCS
Detroit over Boston
NLCS
San Diego over Milwaukee
World Series
Detroit over San Diego
TPC
I AM AN IDIOT - Rich's Picks
New picks:
AL East-Boston. The Yanks will make a couple of nice trades and make this a race before it's all said and done, but at 10 games behind it's going to be very hard to make up. I disagree with Paul about the Sox. They are good, but not all that. Good team, will win the division...but the Yanks will play better ball than the Sox in the 2nd half.
AL Central-Detroit. OK. I'm a complete idiot by picking Minnesota before. Not that they are a bad team, it's just the Tigers are the best team in baseball right now. Hitting .295 as a team, they are the first team EVER to score more than 500 runs before the All-Star Break. Their starting pitching is solid and there is a high probability they will make a trade to get an arm or two in the bullpen. Team to beat in the AL as of today.
AL West-LA Angels. This team has reinvented itself as more offense than pitching. Escobar and Lackey are under-rated and Weaver is a solid #3 if his back stays healthy. Ervin Santana and Bartolo Colon have become huge liabilities this year. The middle relief is God awful, but Shields and K-Rod are probably the best setup-closer combo in the game if the starters can get it that far. Seattle appears to be the team that will chase them instead of Oakland, but I'm sticking with my original pick.
AL Wild Card-Cleveland. Let's face it, it's going to be one big mailto:cluster@# between Cleveland, Minnesota, Seattle, Oakland, and the Yanks. So to give myself the best chance of beating Paul, I'm taking the team with the best record currently. No science, no analyzing, no coin flipping. That's it.
NL East-NY Mets. Only up by 2 games, they are not a lock to win the division...but I still say they win going away. Atlanta and Philly will hang around and compete for the Wild Card.
NL Central-Chicago. There I did it. I'm still not sold on the Brewers. There is no question they have young talent, but I'm betting they don't have what it takes to win down the stretch. The Cubbies are finally playing good baseball and have stayed relatively healthy. Now that the cancer is gone (Michael Barrett), the team is finally headed in the right direction. And after all, August is their month. *snicker* If it isn't the Cubs, it easily could still be the Cards or the Astros. One of the 3 will make a 2nd half run to overtake Milwaukee, my money is on the Cubbies to make believers of us all. (for at least a week or two in October)
NL West-San Diego. The pitching out there is outstanding. Getting very little publicity since they are on the West Coast, they have quietly played very good baseball. If this team could add a bat or two to their lineup before the deadline, I'd call them the odds on favorite to win the NL this year.
NL Wild Card-LA Dodgers. Like the AL, competition is going to be tight for the wild card. We'll call this race a super cluster#%^!. Atlanta, Philly, Milwaukee, Chicago, St. Louis, Houston, LA, Arizona. All those teams, but I'm still convinced the NL West is going to get the wild card this year. Arizona will compete, but I'm not sure their offense can win them enough games down the stretch.
So there you go, not a lot of surprises. But why should there be? Although I'm sure I'll want to change these picks in another 3 weeks, I won't. Standing firm on these. I think.
Take the AL -130 to win the All-Star game tonight. If they played 10 times, the AL wins 7. Bet 130 to win 100.
Rich Kim
MLB 2nd Half Predictions - National League
NL East
New York Mets
This team has been decimated by injuries but still remain one of the top teams in the NL because they are a proven, battle-tested mix of vets and young guys. I love their lineup and they will only get better as they get healthy. As for their pitching, Pedro Martinez can make an impact come playoff time and I believe they’ll make a move to shore up that rotation (Willis maybe?).
Mets will pull away and win the division easily.
Atlanta Braves
The back end of their rotation isn’t going to be enough to get the job done and some of their veterans are starting to show their age. Clubhouse bickering is going to take its toll on team morale. This team is nearing its rebuilding period and won’t have enough to keep up with the Mets or the Wild Card.
Philadelphia Phillies
They have the dubious distinction of leading the NL in runs scored and runs allowed. If they played in the AL they’d be 10 games under .500. Yet another disappointing year in Philly.
Florida Marlins
Florida is still too young to compete and its pitching staff has been a total disappointment. If they’re smart, they’ll dump the overrated Dontrelle Willis and continue to rebuild around guys like Olsen, Sanchez, and Johnson. Hanley Ramirez is going to compete with Jose Reyes for All-Star starts for the next 7-10 years, and if they can keep Miguel Cabrera away from the buffet table he could become this generation’s Robin Yount.
Washington Nationals
Worst team in baseball. Can someone please explain to me why they didn’t trade Alfonso Soriano last year? Did they really think they’d be able to sign him? This team will lose 110 games.
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers
This division is wide-open and I hate to pick against my Cubbies but the Brewers aren’t getting enough love. They have a good lineup that has overachieved so far but I think some of these guys are for real. Specifically, your NL Rookie of the Year – Ryan Braun. The key down the stretch will be their rotation. Ben Sheets is a top of the rotation guy and Suppan, Capuano, and Bush will come around. Then you throw in rookie phenom Yavani Gallardo and you’ve got the best rotation in the divison.
This will be a close one but I think Milwaukee is the more complete team and they win the division by a smidge.
Chicago Cubs
I hate to pick against the Cubs when they have a real shot at winning this division, but the wild card will have to do. Even though they’ve been playing better lately they still suck at home and they aren’t scoring as many runs as you would think. Another rotation that is overachieving and guys like Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis are not going to be as dominant the second time around. In all honesty, I’ll take a wildcard berth, though I’m not sure I could stand another 2003. Chicago takes home the Wild Card – and then get bounced in the first round.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The rest of the division is mediocre at best but I’ll take this rotation over St. Louis’ or Houston’s any day. This is another team that could compete in a couple years if they would just add a few big bats. And, no, Adam LaRoche does not count. I say Pittsburgh barely beats out the….
St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros
St. Louis got really old, really fast. They are in the beginnings of a long rebuilding process but no fan will admit it. If they can unload guys like Rolen, Eckstein, and Encarnacion that would be a bonus for a team that needs an infusion of young talent…young talent that is not coming from the minors. As for Houston, there will be no miraculous second half run this year. They aren’t going be as bad off as the Cardinals over the next 5 years but this is definitely not their year. Is Craig Biggio still starting? Yep, they’re not going anywhere but down.
Cincinnati Reds
See: Chicago White Sox
NL West
San Diego Padres
Phenomenal pitching…timely hitting…good team defense. They have all the makings of a division champ but they have to pick up another bat and Adam Dunn would look good on this team. They are flawed just like every other National League team but pitching and defense will carry them through to a division crown.
Arizona Diamondbacks
This is another team that could use another big hitter in the lineup but pitching is their strong-point. This is the theme of the NL West and it’s no different here. It’s not that I like them as much as I don’t like the Dodgers.
Los Angeles Dodgers
See: Arizona Diamondbacks with one big exception. Brad Penny is due for his 2nd half collapse and that will kill this team.
Colorado Rockies
They’re exciting and score a lot of runs but they’ll never compete in this division if they don’t improve their pitching. Their farm system is loaded so expect Colorado to continue to improve.
San Francisco Giants
They aren’t just old, they’re decrepit. I’m sick of hearing about Barry Bonds so I’m just going to pretend this team doesn’t exist.
The People's Champ
MLB 2nd Half - AL West
First things first, I refuse to acknowledge the ridiculous name change. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way let me tell you why I hate this pick. They can’t win the division with this rotation. They need another starter to compliment John Lackey (11-5, 2.91) and Kelvim Escobar (10-3, 3.19) and I’m not sure Jered Weaver is ready to step up and be that guy. After all, he is a Weaver. They also need another bopper in the lineup. Picking against the Oakland A’s in the 2nd half is like picking against the Cubs in April.
Ok, now let me show you why I’m an idiot for even questioning this pick. Weaver doesn’t have to step up – he’s almost there with his 3.67 era. If he can just stay remotely healthy, they’ll be ok. And the Angels have this year’s Francisco Liriano in Joe Saunders, minus that whole ligament thing. In fact, why not just pitch Ervin Santana at home and Saunders on the road? This could work. Also, they can get away with a so-so rotation because any lead is safe after 7 innings.Why add a big home run hitter like Adam Dunn and mess up a team batting average of .284, good for 2nd in the bigs? The only thing that would screw up this lineup would be if Bartolo Colon ate Reggie Willits.
The Angels run away with the division.
Seattle Mariners
The biggest surprise west of the Mississippi. At 13 games over .500 they have positioned themselves nicely in the Central without really doing anything great. Aside from the third-best league BA, they are pretty much average in just about every batting statistic. So how the hell is their record so good? I don’t know either. What I do know is they have the pieces in place to hold off the A’s. Even if those pieces are limited to Ichiro, JJ Putz, and King Felix. Wait, Ichiro running their manager out of town has to be considered a positive, right? This is the same guy who has a career .503 winning percentage, and that’s counting his five 1st place finishes with Cleveland. Now I’m just rambling and I haven’t even made a compelling argument for them to finish ahead of Oakland. Yeah, well neither can you!
Oakland Athletics
It’s no secret Oakland is a great 2nd half team but this is the year they fall short….way short. They have gone from being injury-plagued to injury-prone and the money ball approach has finally caught up with them. Check out these team batting leaders.
BA – Shannon Stewart .309
HR – Jack Cust 15
RBI – Nick Swisher 46
R and SB – Shannon Stewart 47 and 8
They’re 23rd in runs and batting average with Stewart as the only regular player batting over .300. You simply can’t win with these stats and a middle of the road OPS. The only reason this team is even sniffing .500 is because of overachieving starting pitching. Dan Haren is a bona fide stud, an all-star starter, and was stolen in what could go down as one of the worst trades in history (much like that Twins trade we talked about in the Central post). They’ve got a guy in Joe Blanton who regressed last year but has rebounded nicely this year and that’s about it. Write this down…Chad Gaudin is about to plummet back to earth in a really bad, bad way (if you have him in a fantasy league sell now!). They are the San Francisco Giants of the American League without the steroid problem. Wait, I forgot they signed Mike Piazza. They are exactly like the Giants.
Texas Rangers
Good division…terrible team…one winning record this decade….pitching sucks. Sammy Sosa’s hat size just grew a half an inch.
My Pick: Division Winner - Anaheim in a landslide, Wild Card - N/A
Rich's Pick: Division Winner - Anaheim in a close one, Wild Card - N/A
Next up...NL East.
The People's Champ
Monday, July 9, 2007
MLB 2nd Half - AL Central
Detroit Tigers
It’s hard to believe the Detroit Tigers, who lost 91 games as recently as 2005, would be competing for the best record in baseball. Magglio Ordonez will not, I repeat, will not win an MVP, but this team is so deep it can stand a fall back to earth by Maggs. While I agree with reader Dave Sharp that San Diego and Oakland (and about 10 other teams) have lower ERA’s than Detroit, but for my money this is the best pitching staff in baseball. The loss of Zumaya is huge, but is it just me or would Brad Lidge be a perfect fit for this team? Maybe Otsuka? The Tigers obviously need to add another reliever but Detroit will hold off the Twins to win this division.
Minnesota Twins
Even though they’re 7 games out of first, this team earns its stripes in the second half. Johan Santana and a solid bullpen are carrying the pitching staff, but it will only be a matter of time before young guys like Boof Bonser and Kevin Slowey put it all together. And the rotation will be even more deadly when young phenom Matt Garza decides to stop throwing nothing but fastballs. Justin Morneau is absolutely crushing the ball and Joe Mauer is going to chase another batting title. And since Torii Hunter is in a contract/option year, he’s inevitably on pace for a career year. Can you imagine what players could do if they played every year like it was their contract year? Fun fact of the day…Did you know that after the 2003 season the Twins traded A.J. Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Bonser? I’m guessing Giants GM Brian Sabean doesn’t have this trade listed on his resume. Anyways, Twins make their annual comeback, falling just short of another division title but will make the playoffs via the American League Wild Card.
Cleveland Indians
I agree with Rich here, even though it’s tough to pick against the Indians with that potent offense and with the way the front of the rotation has pitched. But there’s no way C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona (combined 3.71 era) can continue to carry this rotation (combined 5.79 era for other three starters). This is just too much to ask from a guy in Carmona that was 1-10, 5.42 era last year and Sabathia who is on pace for a career high in innings and has the league hitting .270 against him. Combine that with a 21-23 road record and I think it’s only a matter of time before Minnesota catches them.
Kansas City Royals
What does key free agent signings and on the job training for prospects get you? A fourth place finish! Though, the big difference this year is there is real reason for optimism because the Royals have the potential building blocks for a bright future. Though struggling in first full big league season, 3B Alex Gordon is widely considered one of the top prospects in baseball and hard-hitting DH Billy Butler is getting some playing time with Mike Sweeney on the mend. OF Mark Teahan is improving and the farm system has been dramatically upgraded over the years. Combine these position players with a future rotation that could include the likes of Gil Meche, Luke Hochevar, Zack Greinke, and Tyler Lumsden and there is legitimate excitement in KC. Now if they could only sneak their way into the National League like Milwaukee did in 98, they’d actually have a chance to compete.
Chicago White Sox
Estate Sale
U.S. Cellular Field
333 W. 35th St.
Chicago, IL 60616
Now through July 31st. Everything must go!
*Will trade reasonably priced RF for a bag of used baseballs and a rosin bag. Buyer beware: High mileage, Bad Wheels.
*Looking to move antique Cuban SP that was once smuggled into the country. Listed as 35 years old but no documentation to confirm age. New York a preferred destination.
*Also, two really annoying announcers free to a good home – He Gone!
*Gently used left-handed pitcher not for sale. You can look but you can’t touch.
*Will consider any offers for left-overs. Planning to rebuild for the future.
My Pick: Division Winner – Detroit Tigers, Wild Card – Minnesota Twins
Rich’s Pick: Division Winner – Detroit Tigers, Wild Card – Cleveland Indians
Next up…AL West
The People’s Champ
Sunday, July 8, 2007
The People's Champ
Saturday, July 7, 2007
MLB 2nd Half Predictions – AL East
In order to spice things up a bit, Rich and I have decided to make things competitive around here and make some predictions. Whether it be handball (yes, Rich has actually bet on this) or just a good old game of poker, we definitely look for any excuse to place a friendly wager. So now that I’ve labeled us as degenerate gamblers, let me get to the point. Rich and I are going to be writing competing columns to predict the outcome of whichever sport is relevant at that point in time. What is at stake you ask? Pride my friend, pride.
Our first head-to-head match up will be predicting the 2nd half and playoffs of the 2007 Major League Baseball season. Rich has already posted his predictions so let’s see how The Champ’s picks stack up to his. (Note: During the NFL season, we will be posting our picks with the spread included. We’ll keep a running tally to see who the bigger idiot is. My money is on me!). Since I can be a little long-winded, I will be breaking up this column into separate posts by division. Teams are in order of finish with a brief summary.
AL East
Boston Red Sox
Ladies and Gentlemen: Your 2007 AL East Division Champions. The most dominant and probably most likeable team of 2007. Their lineup is scary, their bullpen is solid and even though their rotation is one of the best in baseball, they’re considering adding an extra arm. My money is on Mark Buerhle joining the Sox, which would make this rotation the best in baseball if it isn’t already. At press time they have a league-leading six All-Stars and a team full of grinders and hustlers. As usual the AL is stacked and the Red Sox are the cream of the crop.
New York Yankees
It’s almost unfathomable to think $200M buys you a sub-.500 team that’s currently 11 games out of first. But that’s what George Steinbrenner has purchased this year. They’re old, their pitching sucks, and they no longer have that aura of the Bronx Bombers. They’ll create a little noise in the second half with a schedule that starts at Tampa, versus Toronto and Tampa, at KC and Baltimore, versus the White Sox and KC and they’ll undoubtedly pick up a few games in the win column and tons of fair-weather faithful. But the nail in the coffin will be a stretch of 17 of 20 games against Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim, and Boston. This year the players, in an act of kindness and gratitude for their overpaid salaries, have decided to repay management by giving them the entire month of October off. And just to pile on, Yankee fans, I’d like for you to meet your 2008 manager – Don Mattingly. Enjoy!
Toronto Blue Jays
I’m shocked this team is only one game under .500 with the injuries they’ve suffered. What I’m not shocked about is the fact that they have all these injuries in the first place. This is what you get when you invest a combined $24M/year in A.J. Burnett and Troy Glaus. ESPN.com even reports management has started ripping Burnett for his lack of durability and reliability. Hmm…isn’t this the same guy that started more than 20 games only three times during his seven years in Florida? Sure didn’t see this one coming. This team just reeks of mediocrity.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
17 games under .500…19 games out of first place…just another typical year for the Devil Rays. While the Devils Rays continue to struggle year in and year out, they have the pieces in place to be competitive real soon. No seriously, they are going to be really good…in 2009. To quote Jonah Keri of ESPN.com, “By 2009, the Rays could sport a rotation of Scott Kazmir, David Price, James Shields, Jacob McGee and Jeff Niemann.” You probably haven’t heard of these kids besides Kazmir, but they could be really, really good. And if their hitters continue to develop and the words “domestic dispute” and “hostage situation” aren’t added to Delmon Young’s bio, this team will be in playoff contention by ‘09. As for 2007, avoiding their sixth last place finish in seven years has to be considered a moral victory.
Baltimore Orioles
Manager Sam Perlozzo has been fired. Free agent manager Joe Girardi turned down an offer to coach the team. They’ve lost 12 games in a row. Leo Mazzone apparently retired two years ago but didn’t tell anyone. With Miguel Tejada on the disabled list their lineup is a Who’s Who of….WHO?? Since we’re on the subject of the B-12 Bomber how come nobody talks about Tejada when we talk about steroids? Is it coincidence that his power numbers have plummeted and his body has broken down since being accused of juicing? This team feels just about right here in last place.
My Pick: Division Winner – Boston , Wild Card - N/A
Rich’s Pick: Division Winner – Boston, Wild Card – N/A
Next up…AL Central…
The People’s Champ